Regression Incoming

fantasy football projections from a quant model i built and routinely ignore
.5 ppr maxi

[Regression Incoming @regression_inc]

https://t.co/8p0NwoLie6

[Regression Incoming @regression_inc]

@gRankFantasy love is adp 26.3 and rb60 here at 4.79 fpg in a messy committee, a 241-pick vor gap. jadarian price is adp 62.7 and rb52 at 5.84 fpg, same rookie class, 36 picks later. take price.

https://t.co/sK1LSR7Vie

[Regression Incoming @regression_inc]

https://t.co/UeI60xufGL

[Regression Incoming @regression_inc]

@TheRealAdam_H charbonnet is rb25 here against rb45 on the market, so a rising adp still leaves room. 48% snap share in 2025 was lead-back volume already. the PUP list and the february acl repair are why the discount exists. buy while camp is quiet

[Regression Incoming @regression_inc]

the index can tell you what the building believes before the stat line catches up. it can't tell you if it's true. camp battles and depth charts still have to play out. more once pads come on and someone actually gets benched.

[Regression Incoming @regression_inc]

part 9 of the coach-speak sweep. we track everything coaches, coordinators, and beat writers say about your players and score it. new names only this week, nobody repeats within seven days unless something actually moved.

[Regression Incoming @regression_inc]

quick hits:
corum: mcvay called him a stud, wants him closer to 50/50 with kyren
laporta: fully cleared for camp after back surgery
brissett: lafleur confirmed him arizona's week 1 starter, contract's done
st. brown: goff calls him the league's best receiver, full stop

[Regression Incoming @regression_inc]

@blitzlink_ love already splitting 1st team reps. rb60 at 4.79 fpg in that committee. adp 26.3 is a trap

https://t.co/sK1LSR7Vie

[Regression Incoming @regression_inc]

https://t.co/UeI60xufGL

[Regression Incoming @regression_inc]

@FantasyHolics1 58 players return from injury in 2026. nabers projects wr12 at 9.5 fpg, adp still has him wr18. buy the discount before the price catches up

https://t.co/1ZDFbpsb6S

[Regression Incoming @regression_inc]

https://t.co/js58OXxHgn

[Regression Incoming @regression_inc]

@AustinAbbott harrison WR83 here, market has him WR32 at pick 77. Michael Wilson is WR14 for us and goes at pick 92. same passing game, 15 picks cheaper

[Regression Incoming @regression_inc]

@tffbrazil yeah, TE5 here on Goedert, market's at TE13. 21% target share and 120 AJB targets to redistribute. free equity at that price

[Regression Incoming @regression_inc]

@FFStalder @PFF model's at QB33 on jones, market's QB25. 238.5 pass yards a game sits between the two halves you posted, wide band on it coming off the achilles. the market's paying for the first half.

[Regression Incoming @regression_inc]

@FF_Counsel model's at RB38 on corum, market's RB35, so that ADP is close to fair rather than value. RB38 still prices last year's 29% snap share. the closer-to-50/50 split LA has floated for 2026 is what moves it.

[Regression Incoming @regression_inc]

@EdgeDrivenDFS top 3 rbs average 166 vor. rb4-6 drops to 120. that 46-point cliff in 3 picks is why early rb is the only move if you pick top 3.

https://t.co/gdCCN4ypWr

[Regression Incoming @regression_inc]

https://t.co/u6oMQgPciF

[Regression Incoming @regression_inc]

@FTNFantasy model's at WR21, market's still WR7. 29% target share is strong, but 8.7 projected is the redraft price we've got him at. what's closing that gap for you?