$BULL trade closed ✅
In at $5.80 yesterday, out at $6.39 today = +10.2% in a day.
With the House China report and a possible CFIUS review hanging over it, I’m not holding through the weekend. Taking the win.
$AMPX finally showing signs of life. Flushed under $7.73 and bounced hard. Added a big DCA at $7.92. Next level to watch: reclaiming $8.40 support on the daily.
$AMPX update: trendline and $8.40 both broke, low of the day $7.85. $7.73 is the next support to hold. Lose it and $6.38 is the next major level below.
@MMatters22596 I agree a drop is coming, just not that far. My chart has it flushing 19–25% and then reclaiming, so I’d be buying that dip rather than waiting for $500. However - anything can happen.
@KobeissiLetter Oil at $96 keeps headline inflation hot even if core cools, so the Fed has less room to wait. Rates are driving this market right now, not earnings.
@spotgamma The options market underpriced how hot core would come in. That's why I called for patience this morning and I'm just watching my support levels instead of chasing the move.
@TheProfInvestor Hot CPI plus failed breakouts is exactly why I'm not adding today, just letting my support levels on $SNDK, $MU and $AAOI tell me if this is a shakeout or a real breakdown.
@KobeissiLetter Cheaper tokens usually mean more usage, not less spending. Even if model margins get squeezed, the demand for chips, memory and networking keeps climbing, which is why I'm positioned in $MU, $SNDK and $AAOI instead of the model makers.
@CKCapitalxx The bottleneck trade is the best part of AI right now. Whoever unlocks power, cooling or bandwidth gets paid before the GPUs do, which is the same reason I'm in $AAOI on the optical side.
@amitisinvesting@gilluria@ProfGMarkets Borrowing at 9% to earn 5% only works if utilization stays near 100%, so the next few contract renewals are the real tell for $CRWV.
NEW POSITION SWING
Opened my first $MU position at $948.31.
Same memory-sector dip I broke down in my $SNDK post, so I’m adding exposure to the theme through Micron too.
Price pulled back from the $1,100 highs right into the $927 support, which lines up with the bottom of the rising channel from the August low. The channel has held every pullback since August, with higher lows the whole way up.
As long as $927 and the channel hold, I’m treating this as a dip within an uptrend. A clean break below the channel and I’ll reassess.
NFA. My plan for my own money, not a signal to copy.
NEW POSITION SWING
$SNDK has a rhythm. Since June, almost every pullback has been a sharp 16–25% drop that got bought (highlighted on the chart).
I just opened my first position at $1,442.68. The current dip is about 19%, from $1,729 to $1,399, right in that normal range. It looks a lot like the mid-September pullback, which bottomed in this same area and then ran to a new swing high near $1,900.
Part of this dip is China competition fear after CXMT’s memory chip news. It’s worth noting CXMT is on the Pentagon’s Chinese military company list, and the US government is already banned from buying its chips. Western memory makers like $SNDK and $MU still have a big advantage in the US market. That makes this look like a headline-driven selloff, and those have been bought before.
The structure has also improved since August. The dips are making higher lows: $970 in August, about $1,500 in September, and about $1,400 now. As long as $1,400 holds, this looks like another buy-the-dip setup rather than a breakdown.
If $1,400 fails, I’m comfortable adding more at the daily 200 EMA, currently around $1,240 and rising. That’s the same moving average that caught the August low. Earnings are coming in early November too, so expect volatility.
Watching for a bounce off $1,400, with the $1,800–$1,900 resistance zone as the upside target if the pattern repeats.
NFA. This is my plan for my own money, not a signal to copy. Size your positions for your own risk.