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The Dangote effect is spreading.
A few months ago, I wrote about how Nigeria's Dangote Refinery single-handedly reversed a decade of decline in Africa's oil refining capacity (see tweet below).
This week, that effect started to spread East.
Aliko Dangote confirmed his next mega-refinery — a 700k barrels per day (bpd) behemoth requiring $17B in investment — will be built on Lamu Island, Kenya, ending months of speculation.
Soil tests are underway. Design and engineering work has started. Financing — a mix of internal cash flow, bonds, and proceeds from the widely anticipated IPO of the Lagos refinery — is in the works.
Once built — construction is expected to take 3 to 5 years — Lamu will be East Africa's largest refinery and the continent's second-largest after Lagos, which Dangote plans to expand to 1.4M bpd by 2028.
The refinery in the port city on the Indian Ocean is designed to serve not just Kenya, but Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia, and other neighboring markets in a region that's home to 400M+ people & that today imports nearly 100% of its refined fuel.
And Dangote isn't the only one moving:
• Angola is adding ~360k bpd via its Lobito, Soyo, & Cabinda projects, with Cabinda's first phase (~30k bpd) coming online & supplying its first liters of diesel to the local market in May
• Zambia's 60k bpd Ndola refinery is also targeting initial commercial production this year
• Uganda's Hoima refinery (60k bpd) and Djibouti's Damerjog project (300k bpd) both continue to advance
• Senegal's planned 80k bpd SAR 2.0 facility — a complement to the 30k bpd SAR 1 — is still expected to begin construction this year
Here's why this matters: ~7% of the world's crude oil is produced in African markets, but they hold just ~3% of global refining capacity — and ~50% of that lies unused.
The continent exports three-quarters of the crude it pumps, then imports 70% of the fuel it burns.
For a decade, that gap only widened.
Now, for the first time, it's starting to close — one refinery at a time.
That's the Dangote effect.
➜ https://t.co/8vi6JpoBJk
Once upon a time there was a man who loved a woman— he had her just a short period of time—then she was gone, but he continued to love her until the day he died.
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