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#TradingViewTips
Trading is a game of statistical probability.
At the end of the day, strategy and behavioral consistency win—perhaps not individual battles but definitely the war.
So, win or lose, pat yourself on the back when you follow your trading plan.
Open-mindedness doesn’t mean going along with what you don’t believe in; it means considering the reasoning of others instead of stubbornly and illogically holding on to your own point of view.
Remember some were calling for a new bull market led by Chinese names a month ago? As I said at the time, a la John McEnroe, "You CANNOT be serious!" $BABA flashing a short-sale entry at the 50-dma after triggering one at the 200-dma over two weeks ago.
"Buy Now: "Only time you've ever seen this level of pessimism and not made money being contrarian long was Lehman"... Pay Later: peak CPI, peak yields, Fed done by '23 unlikely without big recession and/or big credit event, sell SPX 4200"
BofA's Harnett
Today is 8 months to the day that the Nasdaq peaked and began the current downtrend. Here are the net New High/Low IBD numbers from the start to today. Still very weak - will see if the current rally attempt can get more traction.
High #inflation is only bad for #gold if investors believe that tight money will successfully reduce it to 2%. Once investors realize high inflation is permanent, gold will skyrocket. The #Fed will view permanently high inflation as an acceptable trade-off to a worse alternative.
The U.S. July PMI Composite Index crashed to 47.5 from 52.3 in June. Worse the Services Index sank to 47, from 52.7 in June. The expectation was for a slight decline to 52.3. Below 50 means #recession. Maybe this is the piano that needed to fall on the heads of recession deniers.
This morning Gold sold down to its long term trendline that dates back to 2001 & reversed upward. Gold & silver likely bottomed today & are about to begin powerful rallies that will take gold up to $3000 & silver to $50 in coming months.USD & 10yr yields poised for big declines.
The Fed's balance sheet expanded for the 2nd week in a row. The #Fed is back peddling on QT, and soon the process will reverse after barely getting started. With the economy in #recession and annual budget deficits over $2 trillion, the Fed will resume QE to suppress bond yields.
Are we witnessing the beginning of an earnings contraction, or is the rate of growth merely slowing? The answer will determine whether the current 25% drawdown will be the end of this valuation reset, or the start of a full-fledged recession bear market.
High debt levels will amplify the reaction of financial markets to #MonetaryPolicy tightening. A BIS report to the #G20 outlines how authorities can put in place policy frameworks to manage these financial consequences: @HyunSongShin#G20Indonesia https://t.co/pYy92Al8d6
6 reasons to read more:
1. Reading is the way to tell the future
2. Reading makes you an informed citizen
3. Reading softens your solitude
4. Reading can solve your problems
5. Reading is a conversation with the wisest to ever live
6. All leaders are readers
Data, as opposed to just models, is the most important input in decision making (of any kind). Policy makers should focus more on generating data, if it is missing.
I will leave it at that.
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