Rencrypta.eth

Founder of @harecrypta | Researcher with Alpha | Trader @lighter_xyz @variational_io @polymarket

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

https://t.co/2E6ro4pHap

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

Verified Variational and Lighter on Kaito

Fun facts
- 15 place on Kaito Variational leaderboard (not a lot of ppl are verified)
- Lighter referral Volume $1.8b

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

Plural partnerships, yes.

- On Variational Omni you never trade against a dealer
OLP is the sole counterparty and hedges outside.
-On Pro there is no OLP at all
a fund posts an RFQ, several dealers quote, both sides lock $USDC in a settlement pool, risk stays bilateral. Pro cannot launch with one partner.
It needs a quoting consortium, anchor takers and someone to clear and finance OLP's hedges.
- The same settlement pools serve both products: Omni, Pro and TradFi in one breath.

My suggestions
✅ A dealer consortium that quotes Pro and feeds Omni's swaps
DRW/Cumberland
IMC
Flow Traders
Optiver
Chicago and Amsterdam, the cities Lucas named
✅ Anchor takers where the pain is Asia, where OTC still trades by phone.
The 2025 strategic round (Mirana, Caladan, Zoku) was already described as Pro design partners.
✅ One clearing and financing counterparty behind OLP Marex
StoneX
or a bank swap desk.
✅ A bank, if any, as a closed pilot
Citi for on-chain FX, Goldman for OTC options.
✅ 100% of treasury revenue to buybacks,
Pro is the revenue and a dealer seat priced in $VAR explains why the 50% team and investor split is still unpublished.
The dealer and the investor are the same name

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

@mct_mrs gm... I'm glad I made you laugh

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

A fight to the death for $80k on $BTC

Kangaroo vs bears! 🐻 vs 🦘

The bulls are nowhere near, grazing somewhere behind the mountains, they don't even want to join this battle. 🤣

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

Hayes is wrong!
Everyone is expecting $BTC dump below 80k, but the strength of the sideways movement and the passive inertia of market are very powerful.

I still hold out hope that even if a war with Iran breaks out, we along with the altcoins will manage to hold the 80k level.

As for me, I’m loading up on more at this moment.

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

GM X!

Moscow Jungles today...

✅ Anthropic filed its S-1 yesterday, ticker $ANT.
- $16.3b revenue in H1. $80.7b net loss, $72.4b of it is its own convertible notes repriced higher as the valuation rose.

✅ Wednesday stacks everything.
- Fed at 14:00 ET, Alphabet and Microsoft after the close, Amazon on Thursday.
- Variational runs an earnings week contest on 13 stock markets, $18k in prizes.
- Omni passes dividends through on stock perps. The only short is OLP:
it pays, then collects on the hedge. Dividends are plumbing, the spread is the business.

✅ Lighter is the pre-market for everyone else’s token.
$VAR first, now $XTEN, with no price feed from Extended.
Vlad files for a CFTC DCM in November.
Can a US licensed exchange list a token that does not exist yet?

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

GM X!

We can stay within a range, both bulls and bears are weak, while the kangaroo is stronger than ever!
Did you know that a kangaroo symbolizes a sideways market?

✅ Brazil voted on Sunday.
- Polymarket had Flávio at 78% with $189m traded while the poll average was 51.2 to 48.8.
- Lula won.
- The market didn't read the polls better, it read its own crowd.
✅ That is the interesting weekend gap.
- Robinhood Chain says almost 60% of stock token trading happens outside Wall Street hours, $532m on weekends in one month.
- Variational swaps still close on Friday. Why and when?
✅ Extended prints first this autumn
- 30% to points, tokenomics Oct 31, token in Nov.
- its $ per point becomes the benchmark for Variational OTC

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

@hibachi_xyz Great news!

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

@Marina_1992x okay dear!

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

GM X!

We can stay within a range, both bulls and bears are weak, while the kangaroo is stronger than ever!
Did you know that a kangaroo symbolizes a sideways market?

✅ Brazil voted on Sunday.
- Polymarket had Flávio at 78% with $189m traded while the poll average was 51.2 to 48.8.
- Lula won.
- The market didn't read the polls better, it read its own crowd.
✅ That is the interesting weekend gap.
- Robinhood Chain says almost 60% of stock token trading happens outside Wall Street hours, $532m on weekends in one month.
- Variational swaps still close on Friday. Why and when?
✅ Extended prints first this autumn
- 30% to points, tokenomics Oct 31, token in Nov.
- its $ per point becomes the benchmark for Variational OTC

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

GM X!

The First Frost 🥶
- Is this the end for crypto, now that even a16z is trimming its portfolio and looking away from the sector?
- Everyone is waiting for the cycles to return, but what’s actually happening?
- Almost nothing, just local events, a few ups and downs and mostly sideways movement.

- Are you still expecting any life-changing involvements from crypto, dex perps, from meme or NFTs?
- Personally my main focus is only Variational and the periodically trading of memecoins play that manages to take off.

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

Read a bit more on labour market vs AI
what I found that’s interesting

11 days.
- That is what Claude needed to formalize Fermat’s Last Theorem in Lean, with dozens of agents and about 6b output tokens.
- Experts expected years.

The mathematicians are not asking society to stop that. - 28 Fields Medallists signed against unverified results announced as PR.
- Tao uses AI every day and signed anyway.
- Their complaint is the trade
the lab keeps the announcement, the field inherits the unpaid checking.

Nobody is hiring the young. It's real issue.
- Calling that entitled gets the subsidy backwards and the labor market runs the same trade.
- Nobody is firing anyone yet, nobody is hiring the young, a 19% relative gap for 22 to 25 year olds in the most exposed jobs, entry postings down 7.5% while senior postings grow 14.7%.
- Firms keep the gain, society keeps the broken first rung.
- Own the robots fixes it for one person, the top 1% already hold 51% of US equities.

I write the AI specs and the refusalsand I own the outcome.
That job exists while a human keeps the right to stop the machine.

[cmichel @cmichelio]

my 2 cents on mathematicians crashing out over AI:

AI doesn't stop you from enjoying math. What's actually happening is that it's threatening your sense of being useful. While I understand this fear, it's also entitled to expect society to stop technological progress, preserve your livelihood and relevance just because you enjoy your work.
Math isn't special here. It already happened and will happen for many more professions, it's just that most mathematicians made their entire identity about math, so it's unsurprising that they're more upset.
Ultimately, all these professional crashouts share the same underlying question society needs to solve: how do we secure people's livelihoods and build meaningful lives when human labor is no longer needed?

Personally, I find it very easy to accept that my work might no longer be needed and to find meaning elsewhere. (have these people ever done any introspection or read a philosophy book, lol?)

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

@Marina_1992x Why? Crypto is still dead... A16z removed Crypto word!

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

@Suavecito1010 gm!

just back from a walk in the woods

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

@Marina_1992x Wow, wow!! Are you here again on X?

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

@yichuan_drive Yeah, there are hardly any traffic cops around these days, I’m heading to the hospital to visit my sister tomorrow via the TsKAD, hopefully, it’ll be smooth sailing again.

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

@Pencha7777 @ethos_network ok! Good choice to work and work and curate yourself!

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

@nata_cryptogirl yes, i am from Moscow Siberia...

It’s surprising that this is literally just 45 km from our capital.

This is my little corner, my source of strength!

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

@Absoluto92 @variational_io @KaitoAI Yes, the same error

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

@Steveee_stonks gm great man!

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

@kriptoshum gm best people!

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

@Krauz3N gmgm bro!

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

@kriptoshum Oh no... never love bitcoin or ethereum spot...

If I had a million dollars, I’d most likely get into Bitcoin or Ethereum, but I don’t have a million dollars.

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

Hayes is wrong!
Everyone is expecting $BTC dump below 80k, but the strength of the sideways movement and the passive inertia of market are very powerful.

I still hold out hope that even if a war with Iran breaks out, we along with the altcoins will manage to hold the 80k level.

As for me, I’m loading up on more at this moment.

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

Plural partnerships, yes.

- On Variational Omni you never trade against a dealer
OLP is the sole counterparty and hedges outside.
-On Pro there is no OLP at all
a fund posts an RFQ, several dealers quote, both sides lock $USDC in a settlement pool, risk stays bilateral. Pro cannot launch with one partner.
It needs a quoting consortium, anchor takers and someone to clear and finance OLP's hedges.
- The same settlement pools serve both products: Omni, Pro and TradFi in one breath.

My suggestions
✅ A dealer consortium that quotes Pro and feeds Omni's swaps
DRW/Cumberland
IMC
Flow Traders
Optiver
Chicago and Amsterdam, the cities Lucas named
✅ Anchor takers where the pain is Asia, where OTC still trades by phone.
The 2025 strategic round (Mirana, Caladan, Zoku) was already described as Pro design partners.
✅ One clearing and financing counterparty behind OLP Marex
StoneX
or a bank swap desk.
✅ A bank, if any, as a closed pilot
Citi for on-chain FX, Goldman for OTC options.
✅ 100% of treasury revenue to buybacks,
Pro is the revenue and a dealer seat priced in $VAR explains why the 50% team and investor split is still unpublished.
The dealer and the investor are the same name

[Rencrypta.eth @Rencrypta]

@kriptoshum oh, my last spots were $UNI and $LIT,
nothing right now... maybe hold more $VAR after TGE dump