Jakub Miloš

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[Jesús Fernández-Villaverde @JesusFerna7026]

Smartphones are not the explanation for the recent decline in fertility. Instead, they are an accelerator of deeper forces already at work.

Let’s start with the facts. Fertility is falling almost everywhere: in rich, middle-income, and poor countries; in secular and religious countries; and in countries with high and low levels of gender equality.

The decline accelerated around 2014. So, no country-specific explanation will work unless you are willing to believe that 200 distinct country-specific explanations arrived at roughly the same time.

Smartphones look like the obvious candidate: the first iPhone was released in 2007, and global adoption has been astonishingly fast.

Economists understand the first major decline in fertility in advanced economies, from 6 or 7 children per woman throughout most of human history to about 1.8, that occurred between the early 1800s and roughly 1970, well before smartphones. The main drivers were a sharp fall in child mortality (effective fertility was rarely above 3 and often close to 2) and the shift from a low-skill, rural agrarian economy to a high-skill, urban industrial one. We have quantitative models that fit these facts well.

Country-specific factors mattered too, of course. Proximity to low-fertility neighbors accelerated Hungary’s decline, while fragmented landowning structures accelerated France’s. But these were second-order mechanisms.

This is also why most economists long considered Paul Ehrlich’s doom scenarios implausible. We forecast that fertility in middle- and low-income economies would follow the same path as in the rich, probably faster, because reductions in child mortality reached India or Africa at lower income levels (medical technology is nearly universal, and most gains come from handwashing and cheap antibiotics, not Mayo Clinic-level care). Much of what we see in Africa or parts of Latin America today is still that old story.

But in the 1980s, a new pattern appeared. Japan and Italy fell below 1.8, the level we had thought was the new floor. By 1990, Japan was at 1.54 and Italy at 1.36.

This second fertility decline began in Japan and Italy earlier than elsewhere, driven by country-specific factors, but the underlying dynamics were widespread: secularization, an education arms race, expensive housing, the dissolution of old social networks, and the shift to a service economy in which women’s bargaining power within the household is higher. The U.S. lagged because secularization came later, suburban housing remained relatively cheap, and African American fertility was still high. U.S. demographic patterns are exceptional and skew how academics (most of whom are in the U.S.) and the New York Times see the world.

My best guess is that, without smartphones, Italy’s 2025 fertility rate would be about 1.24 rather than 1.14. I doubt anyone will document an effect larger than 0.1-0.2. Italy was at 1.19 in 1995, not far from today’s 1.14. The TFR is cyclical due to tempo effects, so I do not read too much into the rise between 1995 and 2007 or the decline from 1.27 in 2019 to 1.14 today. The direct effect of smartphones is not zero, but it is not, by itself, that large.

Where social media, in general, and smartphones, in particular, matter is in the diffusion of social norms. What would have taken 25 years now happens in 10. Social media are not the cause of fertility decline; modernity is. But they are a very fast accelerator.

That is why social media are a major part of the story behind Guatemala (yes, Guatemala) going from 3.8 children per woman in 2005 to 1.9 in 2025. Without them, Guatemala would also have reached 1.9, just 20 years later.

Modernity, in its current form, is incompatible with replacement-level fertility. By modernity, I do not mean capitalism: fertility fell earlier and faster in socialist economies than in market economies. Socialist Hungary fell below replacement in 1960, and socialist Czechoslovakia in 1966 (both experienced small, short-lived baby booms in the mid-1970s). By modernity, I mean a society organized around rational, large-scale systems and formalized knowledge.

Countries will not converge to the same fertility rate. East Asia is likely stuck near 1, possibly below, given its unbalanced gender norms and toxic education systems. Latin America faces the same gender problem plus weak growth prospects, so I expect something around 1.2. Northern Europe has more egalitarian family structures and might hold near 1.5. The very religious societies are probably the only ones that will sustain 1.8.

All of this could change with AI or changes in population composition. We will see. But on the current evidence, deep sub-replacement fertility is the “new new normal.” Unless we reorganize our societies, better learn to handle it as best we can.

[Matěj Ondřej Havel @m_o_havel]

Nedemonstrovali jsme na Letné za svobodu médií veřejné služby, abychom potom ve Sněmovně plíživě umožnili zkázu ČT.
@Jan_Jakob nehlasoval pro žádného z vyhlášených desruktorů ČT, ani pro S. Berkovce.
Platí, co jsem řekl: Využijeme všechny prostředky, abychom zabránili zničení nezávislosti veřejnoprávních médií.
A začneme už tím, že navrhneme veřejnou volbu členů rady ČT, ať se každý ve svém hlasování odkope.

[Fareed Zakaria @FareedZakaria]

President Trump’s White House is now a royal court, and his courtiers scurry around, aware that the mercurial monarch might change his mind at any time.

This might seem like an amusing spectacle, but there is a real cost.

My take:

[Jakub Miloš @repeek01]

@HrozaMichal @TOP09cz @TOP09Praha Jak se jedani vyviji prosim? Kdyz jsem byl v lete v cistirne rikali nam, ze dojde ke zmene majitele a budoucnost moct dobre nevideli.

[Jakub Miloš @repeek01]

@sssirda Zajimalo by me srovnani s tim, koho pak ti lide voli. Protoze na prvni pohled to vypada, ze Babis je ok pro lidi, kteri voli ANO a SPD. Okamura pak pro vetsinu ANO, SPD a mozna pak par dalsich vic hardcore nacionalistu typu Rajchl. To mi neprijde tak desive.

[Jakub Miloš @repeek01]

@ivan_pilip Jasne, myslim, ze to vnimame podobne. Urcite je tam opravdu hodne rizik, ktera je treba citlive zvazit. Slo mi spis o to, jestli je to pro vas z presvedceni no-go a pripadne proc.

[Jakub Miloš @repeek01]

Moc diky @Kvasnicka_CT za tip a vrele doporucuji pokud chcete na par dni klid! https://t.co/py0wNuBF1S
Super s detmi!

[Jakub Miloš @repeek01]

@JakubSzanto Muzu prosim dotaz k Izraelskym osadam? Neni mi jasne jak mohou byt zivotaschopne v “nepratelskem” uzemi, napr. ti lide musi nekde pracovat, brat jidlo atd.

[Jakub Miloš @repeek01]

@jirisvoboda_cz Appka na vodu? :D🤦‍♂️

[Jakub Miloš @repeek01]

@kobeon_ https://t.co/us1ALastJt

[Paul Fairie @paulisci]

A Brief History of Nobody Wants to Work Anymore

🧵

[Jakub Miloš @repeek01]

@good_old_teta @PazderkovaIva Svoboda nad Upou?;) tam je super misto

[Jakub Miloš @repeek01]

@p_zelenka Nekolik zmen, hlavne okolo zastavky u trzine - chybi tam lavicky nebo cokoliv, je tam obrovske prostranstvi jen kostek, cyklostezka mizi kolem zastavky, neslo rozdelit chodnik a dat cyklo s chodcema? Vysledek rekonstrukce je bida.

[Jakub Miloš @repeek01]

@ZdenekHrib Slo by nad infrastrukturnimi stavbami stavit neco pouzitelneho? At nevznikne obrovska 1-2 patrova budova co zabira velikou plochu.
Napr. kancelare, OC, urady, atd.?

[Jakub Miloš @repeek01]

@ZdenekHrib @Mayor_Praha21 @AKolovratkova Bylo by mozne neasfaltovat ty cyklostezky vsude ale radeji dat nejaky prirodnejsi povrch, co vsakne vodu?

[Jakub Miloš @repeek01]

@cafedlask Mohu poprosit o povoleni dm?

[The Problem With Jon Stewart @TheProblem]

State Sen. Nathan Dahm (R-OK) has penned several bills loosening gun restrictions, including the nation’s first anti-red flag law. He thinks these bills protect the Second Amendment – and that they make us safer. We think it's probably one or the other. Watch it on @AppleTVPlus.

[Filip Rožánek @rozanek]

Po rekonstrukci stanice metra Jiřího z Poděbrad zmizí zastřešení vstupů. Místostarosta Prahy 3 upozorňuje, že náklady na údržbu vzrostou o milion ročně. Eskalátory se budou v zimě muset temperovat, navíc na ně bude pršet. Neměly by renovace vést k úsporám? https://t.co/zlwocxNvjr

[Jakub Miloš @repeek01]

@PIDoficialni Slo by ten ukazatel dat primo ke vstupu do metra a ne na nejakou lampu opodal? Chapu ze je to urcite vetsi logistika, ale kdyz uz to ma ukazovat vchod(y)?

[Jakub Miloš @repeek01]

@janmolacek Nebezpecnejsi asi je, s tim souhlasim, ale nemyslim, ze maji ambice zvratit smerovani CR. Podle me je to jen retorika a Okamura by byl blazen kdyby nas chtel vyvest z EU. V clanku navic zminujete referendum, ale to uz u nich uplne zmizelo… netahne to volice ;).