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The Nasdaq has been the underperformer all summer and I think that is about to change. I can see a scenario where the Nasdaq rallies 5 to 10% between now and the end of the year while the S&P kind of just grinds sideways to slightly higher but not at the same pace. That is the divergence story flipping in the other direction. The summer of divergence may be giving way to a Nasdaq catch-up trade.
As long as the Nasdaq holds above 29,800 I think we are headed to 32,000. I do expect a fight from the bears at 29,800 area. The S&P in the meantime gives you a choppy grinding tape. The Nasdaq gives you a more volatile tape that starts playing catch-up to the upside. I think that is worth paying attention to for day traders.
The Russell quietly continues to be the strongest index. Steadily above 3,000 and it just keeps grinding. Steady Eddie.
On oil, no surprise here. Crude is still right in my magnet zone between $80 and $84 and there is still not a strong enough news catalyst to move it convincingly outside that range. Buy the dips below $80, buy the rallies above $84 if they stick, and in the $80 to $84 range right on the year to date anchored VWAP it is a no trade for day traders. I do not love it here.
Metals continue to catch a bid but I remain skeptical. I am watching $4,537 on gold as strong resistance and I think we are headed back down toward the $4,286 to $4,240 area. If that support gives way I think we start chipping back down toward the recent lows again. Gold has been in a downward trend in 2026. What we are seeing right now is a mean reversion bounce back into that downtrend. I do not love gold to the long side. Sell the rallies remains my posture.
The bond market continues to be in the toilet and I know everyone keeps talking about how elevated rates are a concern for equities. I have been done with that conversation for about a month now. The indexes do not care. And if the indexes do not care, why should I. Rates will matter when they matter and when they do it will be obvious.
Last thing, single stock futures at CME are starting to get a little bit of momentum and volume is picking up. I think those products are going to get busier and busier and they will be a great product for active day traders. Worth keeping an eye on as that story continues to develop.
And remember, CPI is tomorrow. Coming off a weak jobs number we will see what the print does and more importantly how the tape reacts to it. Expect it to be busy tomorrow.
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Cheers, DELI
As I start off a new week of successful trading, The very first thing I notice as I fire up my Station is. Friday's Close on the S&P 500 Futures 7777.25. Get'm ready @paxtrader777 The #'s are aligned just for you brother, and I'm gonna be there with ya man! #followingwisdom
@AnthonyCrudele Nice view Deli, This is a sunrise from a property of mine in North Central Alabama. God's artistry and his blessings are all around us brother! #AWNTL
@paxtrader777@jackgleason I've learned a lot from these two fine gentlemen over the last 6 months! Looking forward to the future! God is good! All the time!
As a young trader it was always about the now. Not the long-term vision, just today. Win or lose, in the moment it felt so much bigger than it actually was.
Thousands upon thousands of days later, thousands of trades, wins, losses, decisions in trading and in business, here’s what I know now. What you’re doing today isn’t really for today. It’s for tomorrow. The future comes so much quicker than people think, and that’s the real reason most traders don’t last. They only think about now. They never build for what’s coming.
Once that switches in your head, everything changes. The wins and losses stop feeling so massive. You slow down.
And here’s the part nobody tells you. While the world keeps speeding forward, you slowing down is what actually makes you go quicker. It amplifies everything. You’re not behind by going slow. You’re ahead.
That mindset is what carried me into the second phase of my life.
Everything I went through as a trader, the losses, the wins, the years it took to actually get it, is exactly what’s shaping what I’m building now at NinjaTrader. NinjaTrader Live, and soon NinjaTrainer, come from that same belief: help traders see past today, so they can actually build something that lasts.
Building for tomorrow, in every decision today, that’s the real edge. And now I get to build that for other traders too.
Cheers,
DELI