Ralf Ferken

Redakteur bei der Börsenmedien AG, Niederlassung München (€uro, Börse Online, Hier beruflich und privat unterwegs

[⚽️ Kyle Sheldon @kylesheldon]

Is this the best World Cup team photo of all time?

Bravo, Norway 🇳🇴⚔️

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

🚨 We may be looking at the rarest market setup in 50 years.

The S&P 500's four historic drawdowns since 1972:
– 1973 Inflation: -43%
– 1987 Liquidity: -30%
– 2000 Tech: -47%
– 2008 Credit: -55%

Each one was driven by ONE dominant risk.

Right now, all four are present at the same time.

1. INFLATION
A commodity supercycle. Energy, metals, agriculture all in multi-year base breakouts. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge has been above 2% for 18 of the last 24 months.

2. LIQUIDITY
The largest equity supply shock since 2000. SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic raising ~$275B combined. Google flipping from $60B/year buybacks to $80B net issuance. Over $1 trillion of IPO and lockup supply hitting the Russell 3000 in 2026.

3. TECH
Semiconductors trading 73% above their 200-day moving average – the largest stretch since March 2000. Climax run signals across the AI complex. Micron, Palantir, SMCI, the SOX index, all showing the textbook O'Neil sell pattern.

4. CREDIT
Apollo, KKR, BlackRock, Blue Owl, Cliffwater, Partners Group – all gating redemptions on their evergreen funds in the last 90 days. The private credit machine is freezing in real time.

Never in 50 years have all four risks been simultaneously present.

But here's the part nobody talks about

While the AI Big 10 has gone vertical, quality stocks have been left for dead.

– Berkshire Hathaway: trailing the S&P 500 by hundreds of basis points
– Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Pepsi: trading at multi-year relative lows
– HEICO, Union Pacific, MSCI: making boring new highs while everyone watches Nvidia
– Healthcare vs. S&P 500: 25-year relative low

The last time this happened?

December 1999. Barron's ran a cover titled "What's Wrong, Warren?" – mocking Buffett for being a dinosaur, for missing the internet, for refusing to pay for growth at any price.

Berkshire was down 19% in 1999 while the Nasdaq was up 85%.

What followed:
– Berkshire +29% over the next 24 months
– Nasdaq -78% over the next 30 months

The setup today

Four historic risks stacked simultaneously, while the boring, durable, cash-flowing businesses that always survive these regimes have been treated like dead money for years.

The math doesn't get more asymmetric than this.

Quality stocks aren't out of style.

They're being orphaned.

That's when generational positions are built.

The boring stuff hasn't worked for a long time.

History suggests that's exactly the moment it starts to.

[Ralf Ferken @RFerken]

@UTDIMole My guess: Sami Khedira

[Ralf Ferken @RFerken]

@LindaTeuteberg @ArminNassehi Die Passage davor ist auch treffend: "Kann sich niemand vorstellen, dass mutige Reformen, ... dass ein gewisser Drang nach Konsistenz kompetenter wirkt als das Getriebensein von Tag zu Tag?"

[Ralf Ferken @RFerken]

@LindaTeuteberg @altenbockum Ebenfalls treffend im FAZ-Kommentar: "Die CDU stand für weniger Staat. Was die Deutschen bekommen, ist mehr Staat und ein noch größeres Ausgabenproblem. Aus dem Katalog der Entlastungen ist ein Katalog neuer Belastungen geworden..."

[Ralf Ferken @RFerken]

@LindaTeuteberg @phoenix_de @MichaKolster @merkel_wolfgang Dann freue ich mich am Montag zweifach auf "Unter den Linden". Zunächst auf das Konzert mit Christian Thielemann, dann auf die Diskussion mit Linda Teuteberg

[Christian W. Röhl @CWRoehl]

Die legendäre Szene aus Helmut Dietls „Kir Royal“ mit Franz Xaver Kroetz: https://t.co/jaYhi7m9qk
(Wobei die ganze erste Folge grandios ist. Auch Haffenloher allein am Zwölfertisch im Sternerestaurant.)

[Christian W. Röhl @CWRoehl]

In memoriam Mario Adorf 🖤
Der große Bellheim, der Schattenmann, Beton-Walter… und natürlich: Generaldirektor Heinrich „Ich scheiß Dich zu mit meinem Geld“ Haffenloher. Ikonisch.
Danke für viele unvergessliche TV-Momente. Ruhe in Frieden.

[Oliver Groß @minenergybiz]

This is timely for the upcoming earnings season 😂

[Christian W. Röhl @CWRoehl]

Das "Geburtstagskind" #Apple ist übrigens auch die US-Firma, die in den vergangenen 100 Jahren am meisten Aktionärsvermögen geschaffen hat: Inkl. Dividenden 5 Billionen Dollar "Lifetime Wealth Creation" – das sind 5,5% der gesamten Wertschöpfung des US-Aktienmarkts seit 1926.

[Ralf Ferken @RFerken]

@Arden_2210 45

[Ralf Ferken @RFerken]

@IQTestBrain 3

[Ralf Ferken @RFerken]

@Cairo_xprsk 21

[Ralf Ferken @RFerken]

@SaqibBanbh90290 95

[Epic Maps 🗺️ @theepicmap]

These three regions comprise 50% of world GDP.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

I like this chart from the latest note by credit legend Matt King, who shares sharp and often provocative ideas through Satori Insights. It shows a correlation between the change in the Fed's balance sheet and Bitcoin. His rule of thumb is that expansions in central bank reserves tend to inflate the frothiest parts of the market, crowding out value investing and encouraging momentum, FOMO, and trend-chasing. It’s not hard to imagine a scenario in which these segments come under pressure one by one – starting w/Bitcoin: "We’ve long argued that momentum-driven markets are prone to sawtooth-shaped pullbacks. A shift toward smaller central bank balance sheets would likely accelerate those reversals."

[Ralf Ferken @RFerken]

@Mishi_2210 9

[Ralf Ferken @RFerken]

@Aliya562219 360

[Epic Maps 🗺️ @theepicmap]

World is divided into two equal parts