"Who is selling?"
Is the number one question I've been getting regarding #bitcoin's continued price pressure against a backdrop of visible buying (by ETPs, corporations etc.)
I'm not unique in suggesting it's the long-term holders (or HODLers).
But one data point that gives more color is the simple metric of percent of coins active 1 year or more.
As you can see in the chart below, this line goes up during bear markets (more holding on as coins age and people are sitting on losses) and then usually a dramatic decline as these longer-term holders sell into the strength of a bull market.
What is interesting with this cycle is the relatively gentle slope down with this bull market.
It didn't plunge when new highs were made.
It's a consistent slow bleed as the market has slowly moved sideways and up.
To me this makes sense from a psychological viewpoint and I've been seeing and hearing this from people anecdotally, our clients included.
Bitcoin's performance has recently lagged gold's, even the S&P, and people are getting tired.
Everyone was expecting a euphoric end to the 4-year cycle and was waiting to sell into the historically strong seasonality of October and now November.
But as October's strong seasonal pattern didn't hold up and the calendar year is coming to a close, long-term holders are looking to make year-end tax and positional changes, calling it a day with the gains they already have.
I will be watching this slope along with some other metrics to gauge seller exhaustion, but for now the positive fundamental developments and lackluster price action continue to diverge in my opinion.
Chart Source: Glassnode 11/10/25.
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