@A2E_A2E@ZeyuC_@Lucas_ANVE PNKSTR's inevitable. It's just time. You're right re the pumps and dumps. But over time the supply burns while the bid remains
Possible but highly unlikely:
- Power Law: $45,000 in October would be a 1 in 18,437 trading days (50 years) event
- Some key on-chain indicators already at all time lows
- High institutional accumulation through 2024 between $54k and $73k as support
- Potential recovery stimulus: Clarity Act / Iran resolution
Sit back and enjoy the bull div on the weekly
BTC wicked to $59,100.
$1.57B liquidated.
272,000 traders flushed.
Bottom signals:
- The STH Realised P/L ratio just hit an all time low. Lower than 2018. Lower than the COVID crash. Lower than FTX collapse.
- Tactical Bull-Bear Sentiment Index is at an all-time low.
- USDT dominance at 8.2% - has marked a BTC bottom 6/6 times since 2022
- Power Law quantile just above the 0.1% quantile - only a handful of days in history cheaper than this
- LTH holders not selling. Not capitulating.
- 89%+ short positioning - the short squeeze fuel above $72-82k is enormous
- $255B in stablecoin dry powder sitting on the sidelines
CPI June 10.
FOMC June 16.
Clarity Act pending.
But, STRC is a red flag: the STRC reflexivity loop is the one risk that historical confluence doesn't price.
Every prior bottom signal had no equivalent of a leveraged corporate treasury holding 4% of btc supply with $150M/month in cash obligations and a de-pegged preferred stock, although FTX had some parallels.
My BTC price forecast tool has flipped to bull today
It synthesises 174 inputs. NFA
@_ctm_crypto Past bears followed blow off tops. I doubt we see anything close to 70%. The power law 0.1% quantile has always held bar a couple of wicks and is nearly $59k already