Seeing almost everyone looking at charts saying that we may go lower to 40s and some even giving 30s as targets. Well, i don't want to comment on LTF for the time being as often it gets misinterpreted by most. I want to talk about HTF and where BTC can go whether from here or after filling the wick (49k) or even from 44k (if that makes u happy). My bet is simply 85-95k from here to the upside during Nov/Dec. I may be wrong. I will simply start building my swing long for btc from 50k in 3 entries with hope of selling it above 85k. On the chart side, i see HTF and as far as it is above my level of 50k, it is fairly fine (only account for candle closes) while on the things outside of charts side, i want to share some data which may help you and open your eyes too.
Another thing is you can not simply risk 1R on a trade with 50-100$ SL on a pair like BTC and thinking when a stop is taken out, you will only lose 1R without considering how insane fees can go on extremely tight scalps. So, you can never be fair with such numbers. No one can be extremely honest even the best ones tilt their numbers to make them look like goats when the entire definition of goat is so subjective. And with space with so low barriers to entry, anyone with experience less than 1 year will most likely see these numbers and will be your new subscription. Thats how it works
a couple thoughts from a former high frequency trader:
1. Good market makers made a killing yesterday. Profit is correlated to volatility and volume. And it’s non-linear: profit increases dramatically with vol.
2. Market makers like @wintermute_t, @jump_ are the reason why there is even liquidity to trade at all. Liquidity provisioning is not an easy job. Do you want to take the opposite side of every trade? Especially, in the insider-trading heavy world of crypto?
3. A question I keep seeing: How does the market go down if no one is selling? This is a fundamental misunderstanding of how markets work. If there are no bids, the asset price goes immediately to 0. No one has to sell, you just have to run out of buyers.
4. Not all market makers are created equal. There are many crypto trading firms that label themselves as “market makers”, but in fact they act more like OTC desks. Market making means placing bids and offers to provide liquidity to markets while remaining delta neutral. Anyone who is not doing this, but calling themselves a market maker is lying.
5. A question I’ve been pondering: Is it possible to implement circuit breakers in crypto? When a US stock falls 7% in a day it enters into a 15 minute trading halt. This is possible because there are only so many US stock exchanges (centralized). This prevents stocks from cratering to 0 and allows liquidity to come in on the bid side. Unclear to me how this is possible without centralization. You can’t be the one exchange that pauses trading.
If you are a scalp trader for crypto majors, you should immediately remove $XRP from your intraday/scalping list. Anything dropping 50% in minutes simply means garbage liquidity compared to the MC it holds. Reason is when you trade scalps with 0.5-1% stops, you can get a way bigger hit if the pair you trade has poor liquidity.
0.5 and S/R Level tapped. But Imo, price will face resistance at upper S/R level and I do expect to go down again to sweep these lows at least. Will see there how structure forms. $ETH