Richard Casey

Macro/EM Strategist/Economist/PM. Ex a lot of places but not Bridgewater 🇺🇸🇪🇸🇬🇧

[Richard Casey @Richard_Casey]

Foreign official holdings of US Treasuries is mostly the result of central banks intervening in FX markets to suppress the value of their currency versus the dollar. Given the strength of the dollar, there has been little such intervention since 2014. Instead, central banks have been selling dollars/Treasuries to support their currencies. This is how the dollar based international monetary system functions
The result has been relative stability of foreign official Treasury holdings, although this number is underreported due to holdings through custodians, Chinese state banks etc. Non official holdings are up $3.5 tn during that time period.

[Santiago Capital @SantiagoAuFund]

@BasedCapitalLP @TaviCosta I would recommend running this same foreign holdings chart for countries other than the United States…

[Richard Casey @Richard_Casey]

@S_Mikhailovich @RnaudBertrand Shocking, the China propagandist is negative on everything American

[Richard Casey @Richard_Casey]

@RaoulGMI The most important chart in all of macro? 🤔
Labor participation rate currently is the same as it was 1965-1975 when debt/GDP dropped from 40% to 30%. It hasnt changed much in the past decade but debt has jumped by 20% of GDP

[Richard Casey @Richard_Casey]

@dampedspring @LynAldenContact catchy narrative for clicks versus actually looking at the data

[Richard Casey @Richard_Casey]

@dampedspring @LynAldenContact after the COVID spike, general government expenditure in US back to level it has been at for past 20 years and below OECD average. Fiscal deficits more result of revenue side

[Richard Casey @Richard_Casey]

@Brad_Setser Start by making it less attractive/more difficult for Chinese state banks to hold dollars/euros…Minimum maturities, taxes, restricted access to certain instruments/markets. Enforce reciprocal treatment across trade and capital flows.

[Richard Casey @Richard_Casey]

Looks like there will be a lot of people in Chattanooga rooting for Spain 🇪🇸

[Selección Española Masculina de Fútbol @SEFutbol]

❤️ THANK YOU, Chattanooga.

🤗 https://t.co/bufQKKdAFb

#VamosEspaña | #CopaMundialFIFA

[Richard Casey @Richard_Casey]

ECB and other CBs are understandably very concerned that it is not a big step from people holding their savings in dollar assets to preferring to use dollar stablecoins, rather than euros or whatever other currency, for daily domestic transactions. Also ridiculous that still takes days to transfer money from NY bank account to London.

[Richard Casey @Richard_Casey]

I think what Pettis, and many others, say is that either China changes its industrial policies, not very likely because it would require a much lower GDP target, or else rest of world needs tariffs/capital controls on China to buy time to decouple. ROW can’t reduce imbalances just with their own reforms given China’s willingness to weaponise supply chains. However, China is increasingly reliant on external demand so there is an opportunity for a coordinated response from ROW

[Richard Casey @Richard_Casey]

Won slides toward weakest since 2009 GFC despite strongest export growth since 1978

Trade surplus $138 bn for H1, versus $77 billion ​for all of 2025
June exports +70.9% y/y, Semiconductor +200%
4th country to reach $100 billion monthly exports, after ​Germany, China and US

[Richard Casey @Richard_Casey]

@Kathleen_Tyson_ @SantiagoAuFund Give my regards to Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, rapist formerly known as Prince

[Richard Casey @Richard_Casey]

@Brad_Setser @joequant Funny how “joequant” can’t provide any numbers to support anything he says

[Richard Casey @Richard_Casey]

A rather nonsensical apples to oranges comparison. How is MSTR, a company whose main asset is plummeting in value, similar to a country like South Korea with a surging trade surplus and large positive net international investment position? The won is weak because foreigners are taking profits on massive gains in Korean equities, not a shortage of dollars. Does Japan have a shortage of dollars with over a trillion USD in reserves and almost $4 trillion net international investment position?

[Richard Casey @Richard_Casey]

In case you were wondering why Europe has few large tech companies...
European firms in critical sectors like nuclear energy and quantum computing flocking to US to merge with US-listed SPACs.
“The US offers a much deeper pool of innovation capital than Europe.”
https://t.co/SxanxqNuig

[Richard Casey @Richard_Casey]

@conksresearch Everyone knows that the Polish, not the Hungarians, are the best plumbers

[George Melashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦 @geomel_ge]

Imagine spending a fortune on Washington lobbyists, and the headline guest you land is the shock-therapy economist who helped engineer the 1990s collapse that wiped out savings, gutted industry and sent Eastern European life expectancy into freefall - now reduced to telling small nations the West doesn't love them.

[Richard Casey @Richard_Casey]

😂

[Tour Golf (not PGA Tour) @PGATUOR]

John Daly shot a 63 on the Champions Tour yesterday. His post-round interview is exactly what you’d expect:

The most talented golfer of all-time 💯

(Via @GolfonCBS)