Alts are warming up BEAUTIFULLY.
Sidelined capital is sat in the BILLIONS.
It is absolutely ITCHING to get positioned.
If we see a flush it will be VERY short lived.
Do not waste ANY opportunity.
This run retires us.
The greatest trader in history Jesse Livermore started as a 14 year old chalkboard boy earning $5 a week.
- Placed his first bet at 15. Made $3.12 in 2 days.
- Full time trader at 16. No school. No mentor. Just price action and obsession
- At 24 he used 400% leverage, lost everything, and was completely broke
- Borrowed $2,000, moved cities where nobody knew him, and turned $10K into $500K within months
- Made $1 million in a SINGLE DAY during the 1907 crash
- JP Morgan personally called him and BEGGED him to stop shorting
- Bought yachts, private railcars, and mansions across America
- Lost everything. Again. Went completely broke. Again.
- Rebuilt his entire fortune. Again
- Then in 1929 he shorted the entire stock market before the biggest crash in history
- Made $100 million in one trade. That's $1.5 billion adjusted for today
- His #1 rule after 30 years of trading: "The money is made in the waiting, not the trading"
- He said his biggest losses ALWAYS came from the same thing: not following his own system
- 100 years later his book is still the #1 recommended trading book on Wall Street
🚨 THIS IS NOT NORMAL
The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5.52%.
Highest since 2004.
And it gets worse every day:
The Treasury already TRIPLED one of its long-term bond buybacks to $6 BILLION.
And yields are STILL going HIGHER.
Something doesn’t add up:
WHO IS GOING TO BUY THE NEXT WAVE OF U.S. DEBT?
Japan has been one of the largest buyers of U.S. Treasuries for decades.
Now Japanese yields are above 3%, and Japanese investors have already sold roughly ¥3 TRILLION of overseas debt this year.
China is doing the same thing.
Its Treasury holdings fell from roughly $696B to $618B in one year.
Meanwhile, hedge funds are becoming increasingly important buyers of U.S. government debt.
And that changes the game.
Central banks buy Treasuries because they NEED reserves.
Hedge funds buy them because the TRADE pays.
When the trade stops paying, they leave.
That means the marginal buyer is becoming much more PRICE-SENSITIVE.
And Fed Governor Christopher Waller just said something almost nobody noticed:
The historical “safety premium” on Treasuries is basically gone.
Investors want to be PAID to hold U.S. debt for 30 years.
If buyers demand 5.5%, Treasury pays 5.5%.
If they demand 6%, Treasury pays 6%.
The Fed controls the short end.
It does NOT control what the market demands for 30-year money.
And this can feed on itself:
Fewer structural buyers → higher yields → higher interest costs → more borrowing → more Treasury supply → higher yields
Treasury buybacks can help LIQUIDITY.
They cannot create long-term demand.
And if the 30-year keeps moving higher, this doesn’t stay inside bonds.
Stocks. Real estate. Bitcoin. Everything gets repriced.
Remember, I’ve been trading markets for over 15 years.
I’m watching where the biggest money moves BEFORE it reaches stocks and Bitcoin.
When I see the next major shift, I’ll post it here like I always do.
Turn notifications on.
If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
#Altcoins
Oh wow, it’s happening.👀🔥
After several years of consolidation, Altcoins are finally breaking out of their downtrend.
We saw exactly the same scenario back in 2016 and 2020.
It marked the start of the two biggest altcoin bullruns to date.
Foreigners don't want to fund endless US deficits anymore.
That means yields have to rise enough to attract domestic buyers and/or the Fed has to step in and print the difference.
The problem is that with $40T in debt and $2T deficits, the US can't afford higher rates just to attract domestic buyers.
Meaning sooner rather than later, the Fed will have to print to buy USTs.
We don't own enough gold for when that happens.
Timeline of events since Congress failed to pass the Crypto Clarity Act
September 17:
• SEC allows limited on-chain trading of tokenized US stocks.
• CFTC allows developers to build passive derivatives software without registering as brokers, including for crypto markets.
• SEC Chair Atkins says tokenization rules are moving toward a longer-term framework.
September 18:
• CFTC files new crypto market rules, moving them into White House review.
September 23:
• CFTC Chair Selig says the agency is establishing clear crypto market structure rules.
• CFTC outlines plans for 24/7 on-chain, tokenized financial markets.
• Trump administration considers promoting dollar-backed stablecoins internationally.
September 24:
• CFTC issues updated guidance on tokenized assets and blockchain recordkeeping.
• Federal Reserve proposes rules for stablecoin issuers under the GENIUS Act.
September 25:
• SEC staff releases new guidance on how securities laws apply to crypto.
• SEC Commissioner calls to end mass collection of sensitive KYC data.
The Fed is printing money to buy US Treasury bills... more than during Covid.
- Covid: ~$320B
- Last 9 months: ~$355B
Everyone is talking about the Fed hike... no one is talking about Warsh printing money Covid-style to buy UST bills.
At the same time, Bessent is issuing more UST bills to buy back US long-term debt.
In other words, the Treasury buyback is nothing else than QE in disguise.
We don't own enough hard assets for what's coming.