My journey began 16 years ago. After a brief start at a Fortune 500 firm, I found my true calling in proprietary trading. Since then, I’ve traded through multiple cycles in both local and global markets. I’ve seen the game from both sides: starting as a small player and eventually becoming a key part of a major institutional investor.
Lao Zi once wrote: "The Dao that can be spoken is not the eternal Dao." Translation: Language is too lossy for absolute truth.
Why?
1/ Words dilute reality. They are low-resolution filters.
2/ Words are static. The world is a dynamic, evolving system.
3/ To see the system clearly, you must step outside the system.
**Here's the catch: both humans and AI are running inside the simulation. Neither is a detached observer.**
In trading, this means absolute humility. You don't predict or rationalize the market. You just trade the flow. If you're lucky, you survive and profit.
The math on sovereign debt doesn't work. The bond market won't artificially lower yields, and the Fed won't compromised its inflation mandate just to fund the government.
unless we see an absolute miracle —— like AI sparking a hyper- growth cycle that drastically pumps tax revenues —— there is simply no way to pay this bill. Normal GDP growth won't cut it. The market and rates are turning their backs on the state. Without a tech-driven productivity explosion, who blinks first?
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Governments have spent years "smoothing " the cycle with printed money and debt. But let's be real: you can't impair global productivity for years and expect to feel no pain.
The current strategy? Defer debt and pray for a productivity miracle. Trump is betting on tariffs to shift the bill, but global resistance is mounting.
We are witnessing a massive tug-of-war over who pays for the post-Covid era. Spoilers: the bill isn't disapeearing. It's just looking for a victim. Let's wait and see who gets stuck with it.
The market is betting on a "tokenized Workforce." Thousand of digital Musks/Einsteins running at low marginal cost? It's a dream for corporate P&L.
But progress isn't a free lunch. We've priced in the efficiency, but have we discounted the social friction? I doubt it. Corporate gains ≠ Societal gains.
In an AI-dominated world, your data is your last fortress. Guard your personal data like your most precious asset —— because it is.
The market is betting on a "Tokenized Workforce." Thousands of digital Musks/Einsteins running at near-zero marginal cost? It's a dream for corporate P&L.
But progress isn't a free lunch. We've priced in the efficiency, but have we discounted the social friction? I doubt it. Corporate gains ≠ Societal gains.
In an AI-dominated world, your data is your last fortress. Guard your personal data like your most precious asset——because it is.