I am a Paine

Just tweeting while the world burns.

[I am a Paine @Rightsof_Man]

@shannonrwatts Khanna is awful.

[I am a Paine @Rightsof_Man]

@RoKhanna The shocking part is how excited Leftists are for a scumbag.

Absolutely no moral compass.

[I am a Paine @Rightsof_Man]

@onechancefreedm I scanned it and can’t find those numbers, but I found the series.

LNS12500000 &
LNS12600000

Checks out.

Not the best jobs reports. Weakness shows. Real wages also down.

[I am a Paine @Rightsof_Man]

@asklivermore It was a good call, but if the jobs report came in under expectations, the market would have likely moved the other a way.

No one was expecting a jobs report to deliver more than twice the expected results.

It was a bloodbath today.

[EndGame Macro @onechancefreedm]

The 3 month trend actually makes the concentration problem harder to ignore. Over the past 3 months, payrolls rose 565K, but private education and health, leisure and hospitality, government, and transportation account for roughly 464K of that.

That is more than 80% of the entire gain coming from four buckets. Strip those out and the rest of the economy added only about 101K jobs over three months, barely 34K per month across everything else.

And the composition is the whole point. Health care is defensive and demographic. Government is lagging and tax revenue dependent. Leisure and hospitality is seasonal, high turnover, lower wage, and heavily part time.

Leisure and hospitality regularly gets a spring and summer lift from restaurants, travel, graduations, events, and warm weather demand, which makes it a weak proxy for durable economic strength.

Transportation is rebounding after prior weakness, not proving the entire economy is healthy. Meanwhile, financial activities and information are negative, wholesale and other services are negative, manufacturing is barely positive, and full time employment is falling while part time work is rising. This is not a hiring recession ending. It is a low quality labor market being held together by defensive, seasonal, lagging, and lower wage sectors while the higher signal private economy still looks weak.

[Grant Cardone @GrantCardone]

30 year mortgage hits devil’s rates

[I am a Paine @Rightsof_Man]

@LinkofSunshine I have a feeling that the market is either gonna go up or down next week.

[I am a Paine @Rightsof_Man]

@JustinWolfers He studied ECON….. supposedly.

[I am a Paine @Rightsof_Man]

@LinkofSunshine Nope. Inflation would have to drop substantially as the we go into a deep recession to achieve ZIRP.

We will be at these rates for a while.

[I am a Paine @Rightsof_Man]

@trouble_man90 Most of the job gains came from low paying industries while high paying industries shedded jobs.

Decent jobs report, but underlying cracks still with REAL wages declining.

[I am a Paine @Rightsof_Man]

@CKCapitalxx Today was a good excuse to drain liquidity from the market for SpaceX.

I predict a choppy week.

Everything is hard to predict, including today’s jobs report.

[I am a Paine @Rightsof_Man]

@JustinWolfers Looking into the jobs reports shows massive loss of full time jobs while part time and low paying jobs are doing the heavy lifting.

I sing think we are out of the woods yet.

[Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson]

Breaking News!
Code UFB!!!

Sea-surface temperature records are being shattered daily, and yet this El Nino is just getting started ...

[I am a Paine @Rightsof_Man]

@VictorishB123 @JustinWolfers I understand, but there are too many independent economists with academic ties involved at so many stages that the whistle would be blown.

[I am a Paine @Rightsof_Man]

@reesetheone1 Perhaps. Real wages are still down and people s feel a recession

[Heather Long @byHeatherLong]

Another encouraging sign: The Black Unemployment rate fell to 6.6% in May.

That's the lowest in a year.

The Black unemployment rate is often seen as a leading indicator. The fact that it's improving is another good sign (and an indicator that more Americans are benefitting from job gains this year)

[Heather Long @byHeatherLong]

This is the clear pain point in the economy.

Wage growth in May was the lowest in 5 years
May wage gains: 3.4% (for past year)
May inflation: Likely to be ~4%

It's easier to get a job now, but it's hard to find a job where your pay will keep up with current inflation.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

Why I call the below the most important story in markets / geopolitics?

1) without China importing far less, oil would be way, way above $100

2) Fed would be forced to hike rates, crashing Wall Street

3) President Trump would be against the clock in negotiations with Iran