Joshua Riley

[Ameer Kotecha @Ameer_Kotecha]

I don’t think this is as much of a done deal as being reported. But if Burnham did try, this would be a massive own goal.

Chagos has become emblematic of our entire failed foreign policy approach. Burnham is showing himself to be as slow to wake up to the new geopolitical reality of our times as Starmer was.

Lord McDonald said the quiet bit out loud when he declared recently:

“Everything that has happened now and also under the Conservative government as well as the Labour government is a consequence of that ICJ judgement”.

If our foreign policy is outsourced to the ICJ - to the opinions of international lawyers - it is no foreign policy at all.

If we show ourselves to be so spineless that we cannot hold onto our own sovereign territory we should not be surprised when hostile states come back for more.

We must hold firm and keep the Chagos Islands

[Danny Kruger @danny__kruger]

What dismal news that the Assisted Suicide bill is coming back. They are hoping to use the Parliamentary override to force it through without any of the improvements and safeguards offered in the Lords last time including by the Bill’s advocates like Lord Falconer. We’re going to be offered the same bill that left the Commons (left with lots of ‘oh the Lords will clean up that glaring problem, don’t worry just pass it’) on a take-it-or-leave-it, unamendable basis. Even if you accept the case for assisted dying this Bill is terrible, far too expansive and full of holes to be filled in after it’s in statute… but the advocates know they’ll never have a such a ‘progressive’ Parliament for years, so it’s now or never. So they’re trying to push through a dangerous bill that they admitted needed significant improvement, because it’s their last chance. They must be stopped.

[F. A. Hayek Quotes @FAHayekSays]

“Our freedom of choice in a competitive society rests on the fact that, if one person refuses to satisfy our wishes, we can turn to another. But if we face a monopolist we are at his absolute mercy.”

— Friedrich Hayek

[David Frost @DavidGHFrost]

Remarkable (and remarkably bad) if true.

There are certainly plenty of people in this govt whose understanding of economics is so poor that they might consider it a good idea.

[Lee Cain @MrLeeCain]

Post last week's local elections, I have been asked by clients and colleagues what I think will happen next. Here is the answer - apologies in advance, it’s not a very uplifting take.

Starmer is finished. The question is when
Keir Starmer's position as Labour leader is now untenable. The country lost faith in him as Prime Minister just months into his tenure, after it was clear he would not deliver the change he promised - instead delivering more of the same and a series of u-turns.
Many wonder why the public mood against him is so hostile, but this is fifteen years in the making. The public is fed up with the continual failures of politicians of all parties and now expect them to lie and fail - hence have a very short tolerance window.
Despite the large majority, the public were never really voting for Starmer's Labour Party - they were voting to remove the Conservatives, Labour was simply the best vessel. After a few months in power, the public concluded this government would be "more of the same", and they have abandoned them en masse.
People are screaming for change. That change isn't bringing back politicians from 30 years ago or rerunning the referendum fight - it's new people, new ideas, new direction. Instead, we will see Starmer cling on with another reset at the King's Speech, hoping he can make it to the summer recess and plan a relaunch at Conference. It is always hard to say when a Prime Minister will fall, but it is now a matter of "when", and most likely in the autumn (but could easily be sooner given his poor response so far).

Labour will move left. That would be a mistake
There is a belief within large factions of the party (activists, members, MPs) that the country wants an agenda based on progressive politics. With the rise of the Greens, and successes such as Mamdani's win in New York, it is easy to see how that becomes the consensus position during the leadership election (the best lie is the one they want to believe).
However, a more aggressive left-wing agenda will likely backfire and push a large section of voters towards Reform - who I've felt for a while will win the next election, propped up by a reluctant Conservative Party.
During our research into the drivers of current political opinion last month, the finding that really struck me was that only one-in-seven voters who have moved from traditional parties (Labour/Tory) to insurgent parties (Reform/Green) said they would go back, even if those insurgent parties failed them too. This is no longer a protest vote, we are witnessing the permanent abandonment of the major parties.

The Conservatives are not in a crisis - they’re in something worse
For the Tories, this is a disaster. I'm in the minority here, but I would argue Kemi has done a poor job so far and is getting an easy ride due to low expectations. Despite some positive sentiment for her and an improvement in her personal ratings, she is having no impact on changing the fortunes of the party (arguably the party is going backwards). Voters are no longer angry at the Conservatives, they simply don't care about them. The party is seen as the embodiment of a failed establishment in an era when people want change.
Many will argue Kemi is doing as well as she can, given how badly the Tory brand is damaged. But when you dig into her performance, it is hard to identify what the leadership is actually doing to turn the party's fortunes around. The party abandoned the field for almost the first year of her premiership and allowed Nigel Farage to make Reform the unofficial opposition. This was because the new leadership wanted to conduct a policy review, but we are yet to see a serious policy platform emerge.
But there is a deeper problem - what is the point of the Conservative Party, and can Kemi make it relevant? What is the moral story it is telling the public? I honestly couldn't tell you, and I follow politics closer than most. Why would the average voter think anything has changed within the Tory party, especially with so much of the cast the same? At a minimum, it is time for a reshuffle, and time to promote some of the upcoming talent - but it may be already too late and we could be witnessing the end of Tories as a national party.
The big question coming down the tracks for Kemi is whether she would prop up a Reform government. Despite the risks, being blamed for any and all failures, it is impossible to see how she could turn down the offer to "unite the right" and allow a progressive alliance to govern Britain. She would never be forgiven, so would likely acquiesce.

Reform has won the argument, but whether it can govern is another question
For Reform, there is still a mountain to climb in order to win the next election, but they would be at the foot of an even bigger one should they win. It could be argued - and indeed has been, by some in the party - that Reform would be better being the official opposition after the next election, to give them the time to build an operation actually ready to govern but the political winds mean they may skip that stage and become the governing party.
Reform has appointed an incredibly capable individual in Danny Kruger to lead its preparations for government - in a recent Charlesbye breakfast he laid out an agenda he hoped would be the right blend of radical and reassuring - but the scale of the task, even for the most talented, is vast and unenviable.

And if they fail too?
Voters have said they won't go back to Labour or the Tories. They will continue looking for a party that will deliver the change they have been calling for - but what does that look like? The Labour government (and many others in the establishment) will be looking at any and all options to block Farage becoming Prime Minister - which in themselves could have serious and unintended consequences.
As a last throw of the dice, we could see the progressive alliance pushing for PR replacing the first-past-the-post system, a move that would allow all kinds of dangerous fringe elements into parliament (a quasi-marxist party, a Tommy Robinson vehicle etc) at a time when the political mood is febrile.
The other divisive move would be rejoining the EU either wholeheartedly or by stealth. This would make sense for Labour figures trying to win any upcoming leadership battle - however it could backfire with the country at large.
In our recent research we found that while voters agreed Brexit hasn’t been a success - they primarily blamed the politicians for the failure, did not want another referendum nor did they support the government using Henry VIII powers to rejoin. Support also drops dramatically when people consider the trade-offs of rejoining (freedom of movement, payments to the EU budget). A plan to go back in the EU may win Labour votes with its base but the final outcome would likely be helping Nigel Farage into No10.
We hear a lot about the impact of Brexit but few talk about the causes - and how they are still driving politics today. The winners and losers of globalisation are still the dividing line of our politics. Those left behind wanted change. They still do. My worry is we are about to find out the hard way what happens to a political system that refuses to deliver it.

[Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes]

NEW - President Trump posts “do not give away Diego Garcia” on Truth Social in another devastating blow to Starmer’s Chagos deal

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

Trump: I have been telling Prime Minister Keir Starmer, of the United Kingdom, that Leases are no good when it comes to Countries, and that he is making a big mistake by entering a 100 Year Lease with whoever it is that is "claiming" Right, Title, and Interest to Diego Garcia, strategically located in the Indian Ocean. Our relationship with the United Kingdom is a strong and powerful one, and it has been for many years, but Prime Minister Starmer is losing control of this important Island by claims of entities never known of before. In our opinion, they are fictitious in nature.

Should Iran decide not to make a Deal, it may be necessary for the United States to use Diego Garcia, and the Airfield located in Fairford, in order to eradicate a potential attack by a highly unstable and dangerous Regime — An attack that would potentially be made on the United Kingdom, as well as other friendly Countries. Prime Minister Starmer should not lose control, for any reason, of Diego Garcia, by entering a tenuous, at best, 100 Year Lease. This land should not be taken away from the U.K. and, if it is allowed to be, it will be a blight on our Great Ally. We will always be ready, willing, and able to fight for the U.K., but they have to remain strong in the face of Wokeism, and other problems put before them. DO NOT GIVE AWAY DIEGO GARCIA!

[Robert Midgley @RobertMidgley07]

🚨 Huge news: The FCDO admits a crucial detail that destroys the government’s basis of their Chagos Islands deal

[Ross Kempsell @RossKempsell]

Spoke to a number of extremely highly placed sources in the US govt community

*Starmer absolutely begged Trump for approval for the Chagos deal - it sounds like the process was utterly humiliating for the UK, led by a begging Powell. In the end they didn’t get approval but a heavily caveated post on Truth Social

*An issue still causing concern to US policymakers at the highest level is that the Chagos deal is backed by China, and it’s thought Starmer’s true motive for securing the Chagos deal is that it will make it easier for him to get a big trade deal with China. POTUS is utterly against that, and officials believe it will turn him even more fully against the deal

*Every American I spoke to pointed out POTUS has left the situation open and caveated, and that the statement was not an endorsement of Starmer

The mainstream UK media is not picking up on these subtleties which tells me it’s true

[Ross Kempsell @RossKempsell]

Dear Chagos campaigners!

Be on ALERT that Downing Street (currently on fire) will say ANYTHING about President Trump’s position on Chagos as a distraction and obfuscation right now. ***This is called spin - and be prepared to hear much more of it in the coming days.***

Whatever Starmer / No10 says about the US position is IRRELEVANT. It only matters what President Trump says and what then actually occurs.

There are many ways the US could ‘approve’ of a new position from Starmer / changes by UK govt. He could seek to acquire Chagos for the US. Starmer could have dropped elements of the ‘deal’. There are many outcomes in play. And notwithstanding that, the deal may never be implemented for a variety of reasons.

The only thing that matters is you don’t give up. Now is the time to DOUBLE DOWN on the campaign to save Chagos! Based on what my friends in DC continue to tell me, I have every confidence that all will be well.

We were here before, only a matter of weeks ago!

IN TUTELA NOSTRA LIMURIA 🇮🇴🇮🇴🇮🇴

[Daniel Hannan @DanielJHannan]

For the first time in 48 years, we have a properly socialist government - a government that regards high taxation and high spending as good things in themselves.
Did we vote for it? Hardly. Labour swore blind that it would raise no taxes beyond school fees, nondoms and an energy levy. And even then it won only a third of the vote.
There is no mandate for any of this.
#Budget #Budget2026

[Robert Jenrick @RobertJenrick]

David Lammy must not be allowed to scrap jury trials.

[The Free Speech Union @SpeechUnion]

Juries have been the last line of defence against the authoritarian cancel mob.

When our members have found themselves charged with criminal offences for speaking out, juries have reliably said no dice to overzealous prosecutors. This has infuriated the CPS and the activists who make malicious complaints.

One was Jamie Michael, a decorated Royal Marines veteran, who was charged with inciting racial hatred after a Labour staffer reported him to the police for a video he posted on Facebook. Jamie spent 20 days in prison on remand. A jury took just 17 minutes to clear him. The local Labour Party were said to be furious.

Now David Lammy wants to scrap juries and give judges — who are required to follow DEI policies — the sole power to convict and jail Brits for up to 5 years for online posts.

This move is about power, not saving costs. Nothing in our present national situation warrants abandoning an 800-year-old right: that in a court of law, your peers decide if you're guilty, not the state.

We will fight any such proposal with everything we’ve got.

Read more below 👇

[Allison Pearson @AllisonPearson]

Jury trials must not be scrapped. They are a cornerstone of our freedom. Best protection against two-tier justice. Shame on the appalling ⁦@DavidLammy⁩

Jury trials to be scrapped except for alleged rapists and killers

https://t.co/Ov0TmqC5Cj

[Steven Barrett @SBarrettBar]

They have absolutely no mandate for this

None.

[The CBA @TheCriminalBar]

Jury trials to be scrapped in most cases to tackle court backlog

“The plans would “eviscerate the jury trial as we know it”. One said: “This is basically a Star Chamber or French justice — it is the end of the right to jury trial.”
https://t.co/qDIzEI14bp

[Friends of the British Overseas Territories @BritishOverseas]

A message to all Members of the House of Lords, from the British Chagossian community.

[David Frost @DavidGHFrost]

Starmer's dangerous plan to proceed with a digital ID scheme must be opposed by everyone who cares about freedom.

I wrote about this in June (link at end of 🧵) but in brief:

[Andrew Orlowski @AndrewOrlowski]

✍️ In the Mail, on digital ID:

BritCard will be built on a system written in Romania, where staff who raised security concerns have been sidelined. And that hackers can take control of without being detected.

Ministers don’t care, turning British account holders into guinea pigs.

[Nigel Farage @Nigel_Farage]

I am firmly opposed to @Keir_Starmer’s digital ID cards.

It will make no difference to illegal immigration, but it will be used to control and penalise the rest of us.

The state should never have this much power.