リオ

[リオ @riotron]

習熟ってのは、能力の背景化だ。ギタリストの運指は無意識レベルに落ちてる。意図から結果がすぐ出る。途中の段取りすっ飛ばせる。複雑なな技術も背景化されて使えるようになってる。魔術ってこれだ

[リオ @riotron]

インターネット壊れるかも

[Justin Drake @drakefjustin]

Today I call upon the blockchain industry to calmly begin planning for "bunker mode". My personal recommendation is to set in motion a controlled mass migration of assets to fresh addresses, i.e. addresses whose pubkeys remain hidden behind a hash.

Holders, starting with large and sophisticated ones, should consider moving the bulk of their funds to addresses that have never signed a transaction. And when they do sign one, they should also move remaining funds to a new address (possibly generated from the same seed phrase).

Don't rush. While I believe there is cause for action a rushed migration would do more harm than good. Don't panic either. Moving assets to protected addresses is a simple, preventative step which does not require new cryptography or new wallets.

IMO it is now reasonable to brace for the possibility that ECDSA breaks before qday, in the worst case in months not years. By "break" I mean fast private key recovery (e.g. in one week) on available hardware (e.g. a large GPU cluster).

Recent days have been humbling for human mathematical intuition. Long-held, unquestioned hypotheses have fallen. This includes the n log(n) bound for integer multiplication and the 3SUM conjecture. In hindsight, May's unexpected disproof of the Erdős unit distance conjecture was our warning shot.

Yesterday's OpenAI drop made it clear that mathematical superintelligence is upon us. They say there are weeks where decades happen. We are about to live through weeks where centuries of mathematical progress happen. Could our magic 64-byte ECDSA signatures be too good to be true? Was it just security through obscurity all this time?

Elliptic curves feel especially vulnerable to superintelligence. Curves carry rich structure, with room for fancy tricks like Schoof, Frobenius, pairings. (By contrast, hashes are designed to minimise algebraic structure.)

Separately, as Ewin Tang can attest, an efficient quantum algorithm sometimes foreshadows an efficient classical one. We should be open to the possibility of a classical counterpart to Shor that breaks elliptic curves and RSA at once.

Also noteworthy is the striking under-representation of cryptographic breakthroughs among the 722 mathematical results OpenAI published. I've witnessed first-hand the US government censoring academic quantum cryptanalysis results. Backroom interventionism is my base case.

I urge large, sophisticated actors to lead by example. Project11's "risq list" (bitcoin-risq-list.projecteleven[.]com) is a great tracker of exposed BTC pubkeys. Binance, Bitbank, Robinhood, Bitfinex, and Tether have an opportunity to harden their cold storage. Next month I'll address institutions in London in a live Q&A (forum.ethereuminstitutional[.]org/london-2026).

Again, please do not rush. Wallets holding under 50 BTC enjoy partial cover from "Satoshi's shield", i.e. his 20K exposed addresses that hold 50 BTC each. Load-bearing signers like oracles and L2 security councils should consider rotating ECDSA pubkeys with every signed message and/or multi-signing with a hash-based schemes like SPHINCS.

Exiting bunker mode safely will require post-AI cryptography. My inclination is to go all-in on hash-based cryptography and avoid structured mathematical assumptions entirely, whether from curves, lattices, or isogenies. A single battle-tested hash (e.g. from the SHA or BLAKE families) yields plausible post-AI security.

The Ethereum roadmap on strawmap[.]org fully embraces hash-based cryptography with end-to-end formal verification as a response to the quantum threat. Those timelines must now be revisited and accelerated in light of mathematical superintelligence. I'll be pushing for maximum defensive acceleration.

[Justin Drake @drakefjustin]

Today I call upon the blockchain industry to calmly begin planning for "bunker mode". My personal recommendation is to set in motion a controlled mass migration of assets to fresh addresses, i.e. addresses whose pubkeys remain hidden behind a hash.

Holders, starting with large and sophisticated ones, should consider moving the bulk of their funds to addresses that have never signed a transaction. And when they do sign one, they should also move remaining funds to a new address (possibly generated from the same seed phrase).

Don't rush. While I believe there is cause for action a rushed migration would do more harm than good. Don't panic either. Moving assets to protected addresses is a simple, preventative step which does not require new cryptography or new wallets.

IMO it is now reasonable to brace for the possibility that ECDSA breaks before qday, in the worst case in months not years. By "break" I mean fast private key recovery (e.g. in one week) on available hardware (e.g. a large GPU cluster).

Recent days have been humbling for human mathematical intuition. Long-held, unquestioned hypotheses have fallen. This includes the n log(n) bound for integer multiplication and the 3SUM conjecture. In hindsight, May's unexpected disproof of the Erdős unit distance conjecture was our warning shot.

Yesterday's OpenAI drop made it clear that mathematical superintelligence is upon us. They say there are weeks where decades happen. We are about to live through weeks where centuries of mathematical progress happen. Could our magic 64-byte ECDSA signatures be too good to be true? Was it just security through obscurity all this time?

Elliptic curves feel especially vulnerable to superintelligence. Curves carry rich structure, with room for fancy tricks like Schoof, Frobenius, pairings. (By contrast, hashes are designed to minimise algebraic structure.)

Separately, as Ewin Tang can attest, an efficient quantum algorithm sometimes foreshadows an efficient classical one. We should be open to the possibility of a classical counterpart to Shor that breaks elliptic curves and RSA at once.

Also noteworthy is the striking under-representation of cryptographic breakthroughs among the 722 mathematical results OpenAI published. I've witnessed first-hand the US government censoring academic quantum cryptanalysis results. Backroom interventionism is my base case.

I urge large, sophisticated actors to lead by example. Project11's "risq list" (bitcoin-risq-list.projecteleven[.]com) is a great tracker of exposed BTC pubkeys. Binance, Bitbank, Robinhood, Bitfinex, and Tether have an opportunity to harden their cold storage. Next month I'll address institutions in London in a live Q&A (forum.ethereuminstitutional[.]org/london-2026).

Again, please do not rush. Wallets holding under 50 BTC enjoy partial cover from "Satoshi's shield", i.e. his 20K exposed addresses that hold 50 BTC each. Load-bearing signers like oracles and L2 security councils should consider rotating ECDSA pubkeys with every signed message and/or multi-signing with a hash-based schemes like SPHINCS.

Exiting bunker mode safely will require post-AI cryptography. My inclination is to go all-in on hash-based cryptography and avoid structured mathematical assumptions entirely, whether from curves, lattices, or isogenies. A single battle-tested hash (e.g. from the SHA or BLAKE families) yields plausible post-AI security.

The Ethereum roadmap on strawmap[.]org fully embraces hash-based cryptography with end-to-end formal verification as a response to the quantum threat. Those timelines must now be revisited and accelerated in light of mathematical superintelligence. I'll be pushing for maximum defensive acceleration.

[リオ @riotron]

@hottaqu ご返答ありがとうございます！モノ→関係という順だと、意識を物理に組み込めなくても、量子力学的な「関係→モノ」の世界では、観測主体も最初からその関係の内部にあり、観測主体から意識だけを外に置くことの違和感でした

[リオ @riotron]

いつもAIって局所最適ばっかしてアホだなぁって思うけど、今の世の中は還元主義だし、痛みを取ろうとして狙い打ちするの局所最適だし、実は、うちらが局所最適してるからAIもそのだっていう、やっぱり鏡だ。首痛いの身体の全体最適でしか治らんな

[リオ @riotron]

うなってしまう。戦争なんて誰も望まないのに、なぜかどんどん選択肢が無くなって開戦に至る。山口さんが、その選択肢をきれいに説明してくれてる

[山口揚平 @yamaguchiyohei]

2030年に日本が戦争をするとしたら｜山口揚平　Yohei Yamaguchi @yamaguchiyohei #未来のためにできること https://t.co/PWwcvK8xHI

[リオ @riotron]

人を批判することをやめたい。なんも解決しない。批判されれば、その場を去るか、事実だけ伝える。相手が変わることは一切期待しない。バグはシステム側にある

感情は起動しない

[リオ @riotron]

@gatsuneko 環境の変化に対応しないと滅びますね。明治維新のとき富国強兵しかったら、昭和まで持ちこたえてます？

[リオ @riotron]

やっぱり国連とかICCみたいなグローバル機関が強い裁定者になれば、それはディストピア。普遍的な価値を想定しないと成立しない。そもそも価値なんて立場によって違う。プロトコルの普及だけにしてほい

[リオ @riotron]

@noritaka_okabe はい。JPYCがもっと広がれば、結果それでいいです。でも今って岡部さんとJPYC が重なってる初期段階なんで…。JPYCはルーターみたいな機械的な存在だし、岡部さんが裁定者みたいに発信されると、すごくモヤります

[リオ @riotron]

@noritaka_okabe なんか面映ゆいのは、日米を引き剥がして一番得するのがC 国って言うね

[リオ @riotron]

@Sarukun05 論理で動くのは論理に強い人なんで、ほとんどの方は怖いとか感情で毛嫌いですかね？公園で礼拝とか、外国人犯罪とか感情に来る案件を減らせば排外主義は減るかと。見た目の違う日本人選手を応援する人多いですしね

[リオ @riotron]

タイムラインは世界中の最悪を一画面に圧縮して見せてくる

[リオ @riotron]

@kenichiromogi 明快です。茂木さん、さすが。
反意を示されている方、ほとんど感情なんで、それはそれとして、リベラルでも強めの論理をあててくる方は西洋的（空間的一人称）な理性で展開してて噛み合わない。古来、日本人は時間的三人称で世界を捉えていたのね。本当に賢い人って視点の切り替えが宇宙的で、決して

[リオ @riotron]

全部、関係性で出来てるんなら、合わせ鏡だから、どちら先とか無意味になってくるな

[リオ @riotron]

外国人にとって新宿駅はスゴいらしい。何がって想像を絶する人と列車の数を不思議にさばいてるって…

みんな違う目的持って動いてて壊れないのなんで？と思った。どうも「流れ」を局所最適しなから止めないのってのが秘密らしい。新宿駅は次の世界システムの雛形ちゃう？

[山口揚平 @yamaguchiyohei]

https://t.co/T7yguTk66n

[リオ @riotron]

これはすごい

[リオ @riotron]

AIは意味のインフレ装置かな
人が意味を持ってやっていたことを根こそぎだからね

だから、戦争とかあると生存本能を刺激していると考えると、実はAIの爆誕と不安定な世界は必然なのかも。空白を嫌う人の感情を補完してるって言うね