Rogue

Thaumazein. Foobs intern.

[Rogue @RipRogus]

@Wild_Randomness Are you saying this is a repeat of the green arrow to the left? If so…. Oof

[Rogue @RipRogus]

@tradermatt Pull up the hype market cap chart. As much as I’d love to see in the teens again. Hype hit the exact mc level as the 2025 top with this run up and was 17 dollars higher.

[Rogue @RipRogus]

@Trader_XO I think it’s highly unlikely for the main reason that a ton of supply was burned in this run up. The 2025 high was the same mc as the recent one but this one was 17 dollars higher. Think the mcap chart will come in handy better with finding the low than the price chart.

[Rogue @RipRogus]

@zeegengm Yeah I think the same thing. Since onchain is a cornerstone of crypto now I’d be surprised if it takes til 28, but definitely agree there will be a group of higher caps that corner most the volume once BTC starts bull trending again.

[Rogue @RipRogus]

@zeegengm Yeah it’s why I don’t even look anymore. Could take til 28 to happen again.

[Rogue @RipRogus]

@infinitybanyan Feel like getting ugly is gonna happen at this point.

Had similar ideas. High 20s if we are lucky.

[Rogue @RipRogus]

@infinitybanyan Every cycle before has dumped into June too with relief beforehand.

Everyone just refuses to embrace the simulation.

[tree of dopamine @infinitybanyan]

Remember this when you consider buying next. Long summer ahead

[Rogue @RipRogus]

@BigTrout300 Commented this before you started talking about ETH. My sentiments the same. I think this one for one plays out chart wise sentiment wise the way XRP did. My FA thesis on it runs so schizo but how much ETH rhymes huge market runners over the last few decades is wild.

[Rogue @RipRogus]

@GalleonCrypto Time > price and any other indicator

[Rogue @RipRogus]

@GalleonCrypto You think that insane ? I feel like we are just 50 percent through the 2022 dump maybe closer to 60.

[Rogue @RipRogus]

The amount of hate on ETH is insanity. Never buy again above 2k meme and value pegged at 0 dollars.

This shits totally just gonna be next cycles XRP isn’t it?

[Rogue @RipRogus]

@__bleeker Just the four yr cycle doing its thing. Calls probably only get worse. Failed experiment this and that.

Everyone gets bullish again once BTC is already done half the up phase.

Simulation mode.

[Rogue @RipRogus]

I think the problem with everyone is no one is really paying attention to the 4yr cycle. They think some price value matters more than anything when it’s time that matters. BTC is literally dumping in the exact same month and pumping in the same months it always does in the bear year of the four year cycle (midterm year). The simulation is repeating and more than likely bottom range is formed somewhere around Oct 6 give or take a few weeks same way it has the last 3 cycles straight (exactly a year from the peak).

This isn’t a dig at Zec or hype or any top movers they are undoubtedly good. This is a comment on everyone acting like BTC is a failed experiment again.

[Rogue @RipRogus]

@zeegengm Yeah only talking BTC. Alt runs are pretty much at a different point of every cycle. BTC hit bottom range 2022 and even 2x off the low by the time the majority of alts broke off lows or even the shiny new shit ran.

[Rogue @RipRogus]

Yeah tbh I think ETH will be looked at kinda like xrp was this whole cycle. Both of them have kinda done the same thing. Giga euphoric peak their breakout cycle (xrp even flipped BTC at one point 2017 cycle, ETH had a huge percentage of BTC total mcap in 2021). Little to nothing the next cycle (xrp did nothing in 2021 top comparatively, same with ETH this cycle). I have a whole extended schizo thesis but I think the problem with the ETH trade will be same with xrp in how people quantify it. It’s more so the name. Yes the tech matters but how insane the moat is doesn’t matter as much as say hype that is new. I also just think it has the exact chart of pretty much every major success chart in markets rn (similar to msft, very eerily similar to pre silver breakout, stock running rn that looks identical is DDOG list goes on and on). But I think the biggest thing is stablecoins. The conglomerates are building their stables on ETH (SoFi just launched recently, blackrock huge interest). I think the treasury ETH companies are gonna look as good as mstr did this past cycle or even better since ETH is so faded compared to BTC was in 22. Most intrinsically connect ETH to defi success and because that now looks like a blunder everyone’s like fuck ETH. Dunno just think the reason for running is entirely different.

[Rogue @RipRogus]

Ye I think the biggest thing is people peg bottoms more to value spots by price when so far it’s time and not price when it comes to btc. I posted a thread on my page about the 4 yr cycle but I’m willing to guess if people bought guessing the bottom will be in a few week range of Oct 6 2026 (peak was Oct 6 2025) they will outperform people guessing where bottom will be based on price. Cause where we bottom is a little different every cycle from a value spot.