Rishit Shah 🇮🇳

[Cyrus Dhabhar @CyrusDhabhar]

The absolute levels of shamelessness some people have. Disgusting. First spat huge fountains of paan straight out of the window. Then opened the door and didn’t same WHILE MOVING. Then did this…. Disgusting. The sticker on the car says it all.

Yuck @BJP4Mumbai - YUCK! 🤡

[Gurmeet Chadha @connectgurmeet]

Our tax policies are driving out foreign capital

Our reservation, quotas are driving out human capital…

Needs to be fixed !!!

[Manish Chauhan @jagoinvestor_]

Why do we highlight the first iPhone buyer?

What's the achievement in that? 😄

- No one highlights the youngest health insurance buyer.

- No one knows someone who completed 30 years of SIPs.

No wonder millions live paycheck to paycheck.

We make consumption aspirational, not financial discipline.

[Gurmeet Chadha @connectgurmeet]

Nifty 50 on eve of Independence Day

14 Aug 2024: 24,200
14 Aug 2025: 24,600
14 Aug 2026: 24,300

Capital gain taxes were increased in July 2024 :)

[Harsh Goenka @hvgoenka]

Only Sonu Nigam could turn an operating theatre into a concert hall! 🎶
Even while undergoing surgery, he sang beautifully for Dr Nilesh Satbhai and his medical team. What a remarkable spirit!

[Gurmeet Chadha @connectgurmeet]

As we try to open strait of Hormuz, request state authorities to also normalise traffic in Strait of Ashram & ITO in Delhi ,Strait of Saki Naka & western expressway in Mumbai and strait of Silk Board Junction in bengaluru

This will also lead to significant reduction in fuel..

[Nigel D'Souza @Nigel__DSouza]

On a lighter note

For months, it’s been NSE vs BSE: market share, valuations and who comes out on top.

But plot twist?
BSE is now set to join the Nifty 50. And if NSE eventually lists, there’s a good chance it could find its way into the Sensex.

Two rivals competing for the same girl, only to realise they’ll both be in each other’s wedding entourage. 😄

[Amitabh Kant @amitabhk87]

Indian Automakers just topped the world in EV efficiency. Not Tesla. Not BYD. Tata and Mahindra.

Among the world's 22 largest automakers, Tata Motors and Mahindra posted the lowest energy consumption per km in 2025, beating Tesla and BYD on efficiency.

Indian engineering, built for Indian roads, is now setting the global benchmark.

Study and Chart credit: @TheICCT & @restofworld

@TataMotors @Mahindra_Auto

[Gitanjali J Angmo @GitanjaliAngmo]

When @Wangchuk66 was detained, the BJP IT cell called us anti-national, Chinese agents, foreign-funded, and every other label they could manufacture.
Today, because we called the Congress' protest at PM's residence insincere, Congress trolls are calling us Sanghis, RSS and BJP stooges.
Different flags. Same playbook. The rot has infected our entire political culture.
India needs more than just a change of government. It needs a change in the very grammar of politics, where disagreement is met with dialogue, not demonisation; where patriotism is measured by integrity, not party affiliation; and where truth matters more than tribal loyalty.
@narendramodi @RahulGandhi

[Intrinsic Compounding @soicfinance]

Few key learnings from last 1 month:

1. To Track if AI capex is accelerating or not, always read the concalls of ASML and TSMC.

Why these 2 cos?

-ASML is the only manufacturer of EUV machines which are used in Lower Nodes Semi Chips. One machine costs more than $350-400 Million.

-TSMC is the biggest foundry of the world. Basically, they run manufacturing Fab units where 73% of Global Semicon chips are manufactured.

ASML in their concall mentioned-

"With increasing visibility into their customers' plans, our customers have been able to share forecasts with us that extend out multiple years. We see this heightened visibility reflected in order momentum that has remained extremely strong through the first half of the year. As a result, our backlog continues to increase with a broad mix of customers. For 2027, we are now close to being fully covered with orders for Low-NA EUV, and we are planning to increase our Low-NA EUV capacity by around 30%. Looking ahead to 2028, we have already received a significant number of Low-NA EUV orders. Strong demand forecasts from our customers have led us to investigate a further 30% capacity increase for that year. Similarly, for our immersion systems, we intend to increase capacity by 30% in 2027 and are investigating a potential further 30% expansion for 2028.

To conclude, customer demand remains very strong, with visibility now extending several years into the future. We have responded effectively to the increasing demand and will continue investing to ensure our capacity and capability remains aligned with our customer needs. We also see that the rapid growth of AI-related demand in advanced logic and DRAM is accelerating the move toward more advanced lithography solution and increasing lithography intensity."

This is what TSMC said in their concall-

"The AI megatrend continue to drive the need for more and more computation, which supports the robust demand for leading-edge silicon. Our customers and customers' customer, who are mainly the cloud service provider, continue to provide us with their very strong signal and positive outlook. Thus, our conviction in the multi-year AI megatrend remains very high. Supported by our robust technology differentiation and broad customer base, we now expect our full year 2026 revenue growth to be slightly above 40% year-over-year in U.S. dollar terms. Based on our assessment, we are stepping up our CapEx investment to increase our capacity to support our customers' future growth. With the strong collaboration and support from our leading U.S. customers and the U.S. federal, state, and city government, we would like to announce an additional $100 billion investment in Arizona."

As per the biggest two players in Semiconductor manufacturing, the demand continues to explode.

2. Instamart, in partnership with state-run Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL), has begun a pilot in parts of Uttarahalli and Subramanyapura, for home deliver of composite based LPG cylinders. A 10 KG composite LPG cylinder is much lighter than a metal one and can be delivered by Quick commerce players. The order for these composite cylinders from HPCL has been in turn given to Time technoplast.

Composite materials are lighter than solid metals (like steel or aluminum) because they combine lightweight base elements (such as carbon or glass fibers) with lighter binding resins, resulting in a much lower overall density while offering excellent structural strength.

Interesting to see adoption of Composite based cylinders finally for LPG distribution.

3. Private companies are reshaping India's space ambitions, building rockets and satellites as the country pushes to capture a bigger share of the global space economy. Since opening the sector to private players in 2020, India has become home to more than 400 space startups, attracting upwards of USD 500 million in investment, including USD 150 million in the last year alone.

Skyroot Aerospace successfully launched the Vikram-1 rocket on its maiden orbital test flight (Mission Aagaman) from the Satish Dhawan Space Centre in Sriharikota, India. This landmark event marks India's entry into the private orbital space race. Vikram-1 is a four-stage, seven-story tall launch vehicle constructed with an all-carbon-composite structure and advanced 3D-printed liquid engines. This mission solidifies India as the third nation globally to successfully conduct a private orbital-class rocket launch.

India currently values its space economy at USD 8.4 billion, about three percent of the global market, but aims to increase that figure fivefold within seven years.

4. The Space Industry Value Chain

Upstream — "Build it"

-Everything needed to make a satellite or rocket before anything leaves the ground: satellite buses and payloads, launch vehicles, and the components and subsystems inside them (propulsion, avionics, sensors, solar panels, star trackers, specialty materials). In India this is ISRO / HAL / L&T on the legacy manufacturing side; component and subsystem suppliers like Godrej Aerospace, Astra, MTAR, Paras Defence, Data Patterns and Centum; and the new-space builders like Skyroot (Vikram), Agnikul (Agnibaan), Bellatrix and Manastu (propulsion), Dhruva Space (satellite platforms).

Midstream — "Launch it and operate it"

Getting the asset to orbit and keeping it alive: launch services, spaceport/range operations, satellite operations (telemetry, tracking, command) and the ground stations that talk to the satellite and pull data down. Here ISRO and NSIL (its commercial arm) dominate launch, Skyroot and Agnikul are the private launch challengers, and players like Dhruva Space run ground-station and orbital-deployment services.

Downstream — "Use it"

Where the money and the largest number of companies sit that is turning orbital assets into services for end users.

Three buckets: SatCom / connectivity (OneWeb via Bharti–Eutelsat, Jio-SES, Starlink pending), Earth Observation and remote sensing (Pixxel, SatSure, GalaxEye — imagery plus analytics), and navigation / PNT built on NavIC. These feed agriculture, defence and ISR, disaster management, logistics, insurance and urban planning.

The wrapper around all three which is the enabling layer:

DoS/ISRO (R&D and public assets), IN-SPACe (the single-window regulator and promoter for private players), NSIL (commercialisation), plus the 2023 Space Policy and liberalised FDI that opened the sector to private capital.

5. What drives more demand for Cables: Data Centre opportunity or Transmission?

Lets read what Polycab mentioned in their concall

"I agree on data centers; if only 1 gigawatt is added, the translation to the cable market will not be massive. We see an opportunity of 8-18 gigawatts, but the timing is uncertain. However, on T&D, I disagree. The average for the next 5 years is expected to be 20,000-21,000 circuit kilometers. This reflects a very real execution visible on the ground. A 100 rupee spend on T&D translates to a cable requirement of 15%, which is very high. We believe the next 5 years will be monumental for generation, transmission, and distribution combined. Another lead indicator is the capacity expansion plans of transformer companies, whose order books are now 2.5x their revenue."

Transmission in terms of Value will be much more accretive than DC opportunity for Cable manufacturers.

6. We always track results and commentary of Large Co-Working spaces like We Work which reported Blockbuster numbers. More important was the commentary about the overall office leasing landscape

-Our capacity grew 17% year-over-year while members grew 30%. Member growth ran at 1.7 times the pace of capacity addition. Portfolio occupancy moved from 76.5% a year ago to 84.9% today.

-Demand is showing up in sales. We sold about 12,700 desks this quarter, which is up 28% year-over-year. April was our single biggest sales month with about 7,500 desks. We did this without discounting as pricing multiples held steadily through the year. It is worth repeating that 52% of what we sold went to members that are already with us. That is not a one-quarter trend; that has been the base compounding.

-Regarding who drives the revenue, 77% came from enterprise members and 65% from global companies, with North America riding the GCC wave at 46% of the revenue on its own.

-India's flex space keeps taking share from traditional leasing. Domestic companies now account for 46% of leasing and more than half of that goes to flex operators. Roughly 55% of India's occupiers already use flex, and we are on track for about two-thirds by 2027.

Thus Office leasing, Hiring and trend of GCC's remains robust if we hear the concall of largest co working space owner in India.

7. The Industrial Gases segment in India is worth 30,000 crores and its growing at 8.5-9% CAGR per annum. Lets look at the value chain and how they make revenues.

The industrial gases industry has two distinct halves.

-On one side are the gas producers - Linde, Air Liquide, Air Products, Inox Air Products, Ellenbarrie. They liquefy air, separate it into oxygen, nitrogen, and argon, and sell molecules. Their balance sheets are heavy with multi-billion-dollar plants & Fixed asset turns are low. Their revenue is annuity-like. They are the "ONGC" of cryogenic gases.

-On the other side are the equipment makers, the companies that build the vacuum-insulated tanks, semi-trailers, fueling stations, and engineered systems that store, transport, and dispense those molecules. Without their equipment, the gas producers cannot move a single cubic metre of product to a customer. Without them, LNG cannot leave a port. Hospitals cannot store liquid oxygen. ISRO cannot fuel a rocket. Steel mills cannot run their furnaces. This includes the likes of Inox India which we covered on our YouTube channel sometime back.

How do Industrial Gases companies like Inox Air & Ellebarrie earn revenues?

Industrial gas companies monetise the same molecules through three delivery models that differ by customer size, volume, and contract length.

1. First is Onsite, where the company builds an air separation unit (ASU) right on the customer's premises and pipes gas directly to them and its reserved for the largest, highest-volume buyers under very long 15–20 year "take-or-pay" contracts that guarantee returns and pass through input costs, making revenue extremely predictable (Ellenbarrie has just 3 such customers).

2. Second is Bulk (merchant), where liquefied gas is trucked in tankers to company-owned storage-and-vaporiser infrastructure installed at mid-sized customers' sites, run on 3–7 year contracts (avg ~5 years); this is the density-building layer serving 328 customers.

3. Third is Package, the smallest-ticket, most fragmented tier, where gas is compressed into cylinders and transported to a large base of small customers (1,498 for Ellenbarrie) on short 1–3 year terms, enabling bundled offerings and broad network reach.

In short: the same gas is sold via pipeline (onsite), liquid tanker (bulk), or cylinders (package). Thus, trading contract stickiness and margin predictability at the top for volume and customer breadth at the bottom.

Many more learnings that we will keep sharing with you. Above is just some of the work that we do across industries. You can subscribe to our YT channel and Substack to learn about different sectors with us below 👇

https://t.co/zwViV5c5nX

https://t.co/rkxvlMbO0x

Disclaimer: No recommendation to buy or sell. We write down our learnings to gain more clarity in our thought process.

[Harsh Goenka @hvgoenka]

Happiness is found in three things: Letting go of what was, enjoying what is, and trusting what’s left to come.

[ishmohit @ishmohit1]

Lots to learn from Lionel Messi

1. Be patient
2. When your moment comes. Ramp up the intensity like anything.
3. Trust your team mates.
4. Have an end outcome like a goal or an assist in mind.
5. Have a never say die attitude. Persistence to make these comebacks after going down in last 3 knockout games. Only comes with a solid character.

Great sportsmen can always teach us more about life. It’s really difficult to be this good without suffering and sacrifice.

[Harsh Goenka @hvgoenka]

Pakistan just passed a resolution asking the U.S. to bomb them next.

They heard about Iran’s $300 Billion relief package.📦😀

[Sarvam @SarvamAI]

We're thrilled to announce that we have raised $234M in the first close of our $300M Series B at a $1.5B valuation.

@HCLTech and @BessemerVP have joined us in this round, alongside continued support from @khoslaventures and @peakxvpartners

For countries and companies, sovereign control on the AI stack is no longer an optionality. Sarvam will be the partner of choice for this aspiration. The capital allows us to accelerate our momentum towards this full stack of models, compute, and deployments.

A huge thank you to our customers, partners, investors, and the Sarvam team for your trust and belief in what we are building. We’re just getting started.

Read more: https://t.co/VmLtpnj8gx

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

CHINA ELIMINATES 12,000 ‘OBSOLETE’ UNIVERSITY DEGREES IN PUSH TO PREPARE FOR THE AI ERA

CHINESE UNIVERSITIES SCRAP 12,000 DEGREE PROGRAMS AS AI RESHAPES JOB MARKET DEMANDS

[Harsh Goenka @hvgoenka]

A lovely film made by Raju Hirani on the occasion of 100 years of Bajaj group, a business family I respect immensely. What was amazing to me was that the characters enacted by the Bajaj family members are all done by AI!!

[Gurmeet Chadha @connectgurmeet]

I really use to look upto the big tech billionaires and trillionaires as role models

Instead of investing their wealth in finding cures for diseases , making education affordable n removing poverty
They have invested in disruption to make companies more profitable and trigger more layoffs

And if top 1% of top mgmt takes a 20% pay cut or even don’t take increment , we can still save millions of jobs.

These are not your heroes.. or may be i am old school and people mater to me more …

[Arvind Datta @datta_arvind]

Worth reading the experience of a traveller who was stranded at Dubai Airport.

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

A blog post just wiped $30 billion off IBM in a single afternoon.

Not a product launch. Not an earnings miss. Not a competitor undercutting on price.

A five-minute blog post explaining that Claude can read COBOL.

IBM dropped 13%. Worst single-day loss since October 2000. Twenty-five years of stock resilience ended by one AI company publishing a capability update.

Here’s what happened:

95% of ATM transactions in America run on COBOL. Hundreds of billions of lines power banking, airlines, and government systems. The developers who built them retired decades ago. The knowledge left with them. Finding engineers who can even read COBOL gets harder every quarter.

IBM’s moat was never the technology. It was the fact that nobody else could understand it. Entire consulting empires existed because the code was too old, too tangled, and too critical to touch. Companies paid IBM billions because the alternative was catastrophic system failure.

Then Anthropic published a blog post saying Claude Code can map dependencies across thousands of lines of COBOL, document workflows, identify migration risks, and translate legacy logic into modern languages. Modernization in quarters instead of years.

The market heard: the priesthood just lost its monopoly on the sacred language.

And this isn’t the first time. Last week Anthropic announced Claude Code Security for vulnerability scanning. CrowdStrike dropped. Okta dropped. Cloudflare dropped. One company is serially destroying legacy moats with blog posts.

Now here’s where it gets surreal.

This same company, on the same day, also published evidence that three Chinese AI labs ran 24,000 fake accounts and 16 million exchanges to steal Claude’s capabilities. DeepSeek used it to build censorship tools. MiniMax pivoted within 24 hours when a new model dropped, redirecting half its traffic to steal the latest version.

And yesterday, the Pentagon summoned this same company’s CEO for what officials called a “sh*t-or-get-off-the-pot meeting,” threatening to blacklist them like Huawei for refusing to let the military use Claude without safety restrictions.

Three stories. One company. Twenty-four hours.

The company destroying legacy moats faster than the market can reprice them is simultaneously being threatened by its own government and looted by foreign competitors.

Anthropic is valued at $380 billion. Its CEO says a 12-month delay in AI would make him bankrupt. The Pentagon wants to designate it a supply chain risk. Chinese labs are running industrial espionage against it. And it just proved it can vaporize $30 billion in market cap with a Monday morning blog post.

Whatever you think about AI disruption, IBM’s stock just settled the argument.

Full institutional analysis on my Substack.

https://t.co/AEv8EMPdsZ

[Insider Trackers @InsiderTrackers]

In his recent Doomsday Article, Ray Dalio told you to buy Gold.

But his fund sold all its Gold months ago.

So why is he not following his own advice?

February 13, 2026.

Bridgewater Associates files their quarterly 13F with the SEC.

Standard procedure. Required by law.

The filing shows what the world's largest hedge fund bought and sold in Q4 2025.

Nobody pays attention.

It's 400 pages of stock tickers and share counts.

Buried in there: Bridgewater SOLD every share of gold they owned.

Complete liquidation of their SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) position.

February 14, 2026.

One day after the filing goes public.

Ray Dalio posts on X.

"The post-1945 world order has broken down."

"We're entering Stage 6 of the Big Cycle."

His investment advice?

"As for investing, sell out of all debt and buy gold because wars are financed by borrowing and printing money, which devalues debt and money."

The post goes viral.

Millions of views.

Financial media picks it up everywhere.

Dalio has credibility—he called 2008, he called the European debt crisis.

When he speaks, people listen.

But here's what almost nobody noticed:

The day BEFORE he told the world to buy gold...

His fund's SEC filing revealed they sold all their gold months earlier.

This isn't a conspiracy.

It's just how the game works.

And if you know where to look, you can see it happening in real time.

Let's rewind to Q1 2025.

Bridgewater BOUGHT $318.8 million in SPDR Gold Shares (GLD).

A massive new position.

It became their 6th largest holding.

Classic Ray Dalio. Hedging against chaos. Betting on collapse.

Then Q3 2025 happened.

Bridgewater sold the entire position.

Every single share.

$318.8 million in gold—gone.

Not trimmed. Not reduced. Completely exited.

And they didn't just dump gold.

They also cut their emerging markets position by 93%.

The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) went from a major holding to nearly zero.

This is the same Dalio who spent years telling people to diversify into China and Asia.

At Davos 2026, he said "China and broader Asia play an important diversifying role in portfolios."

But the 13F shows Bridgewater exited almost all of it.

So if they weren't buying gold or emerging markets...

What were they buying?

US tech stocks.

Here's what Bridgewater ACTUALLY did in Q4 2025:

Nvidia: UP 54%
- Added 1.35 million shares
- Total position: 3.87 million shares
- Moved from 6th to 3rd largest holding

Amazon: UP 73%
- Added 820,000 shares
- Total position: 1.95 million shares

Micron Technology: New major position

Oracle: New major position

And their largest holdings overall?

#1: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) - 6.69% of portfolio
#2: iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) - 10.62% of portfolio

Combined: over 17% of their entire $100+ billion portfolio is long the S&P 500.

The US stock market.

The very thing Dalio's public warnings suggest you should flee.

Now here's the timeline again, because it matters:

**October - December 2025:** Bridgewater loads up on US tech, dumps gold

**December 31, 2025:** Q4 positions locked in

**February 13, 2026:** SEC filing goes public (reveals the moves)

**February 14, 2026:** Dalio posts "sell debt, buy gold"

The data was public for 24 hours before his post.

But who reads 13F filings?

Retail investors read X posts.

Institutional investors read SEC filings.

That's the information gap.

And it's completely legal.

13F filings are required 45 days after quarter-end.

By the time you see what Bridgewater bought, they've already bought it.

The positions are locked in.

The prices have moved.

You're always one step behind.

So why did he sell gold, then tell you to buy it?

The simple answer: timing.

When Bridgewater sold gold in Q3 2025, the metal was already up 65% for the year.

It hit record highs above $4,000/oz.

They took profits.

Classic investing: sell high.

But then gold kept climbing.

By January 2026, it hit $5,595/oz.

An all-time high.

And now, with geopolitical tensions rising and banks forecasting $6,000+/oz by year-end...

Dalio thinks it's going higher.

So he's telling the public to buy.

But here's the part retail investors miss:

Bridgewater can RE-ENTER gold anytime they want.

Their next 13F (Q1 2026) won't be filed until May.

If they bought gold back in January at $5,500...

You won't know until May.

And by then, gold could be at $6,000.

Or $7,000.

Or back at $4,000.

You're always 45-90 days behind what they're actually doing.

Dalio's Feb 14 post might reflect positions he took in December or January.

But you won't see those trades until the next filing.

This isn't Ray Dalio being evil.

It's just how the system works.

Public statements create narrative.

SEC filings show PAST reality.

And there's always a gap between the two.

Here's what Bridgewater's co-CIO Bob Prince said in their Q4 investor call:

"Two core drivers: the artificial intelligence revolution and modern mercantilism."

"AI capex will significantly support US growth in the coming years."

"Many second-order consequences of this investment are not priced in."

Translation: They think US AI stocks are going higher.

At Davos, Bridgewater CEO Nir Bar Dea talked about the "technology arms race reshaping the global economy."

That's not a warning to flee US assets.

That's a thesis to BUY US tech.

And the 13F confirms it.

Nvidia. Amazon. Oracle. Microsoft. Adobe.

All major positions or increases.

So which Ray Dalio is real?

The one warning about empire collapse on X?

Or the one loading up billions in US tech stocks?

Both.

They're serving different audiences.

The public warnings create volatility.

Volatility creates opportunity.

And Bridgewater, already positioned, profits from the chaos.

Let's talk about the gold advice specifically.

Dalio said: "Wars are financed by borrowing and printing money, which devalues debt and money."

He's not wrong historically.

Gold has been a hedge against currency debasement for centuries.

But here's what he didn't mention in that post:

Gold doesn't perform well when real interest rates are rising.

The Fed kept rates higher for longer.

Gold also struggles when the dollar is strong.

Despite warnings, the dollar remains the global reserve currency.

Gold hit all-time highs in 2024, then consolidated through 2025.

By Q3, when Bridgewater sold, gold was rangebound.

So they rotated.

Into Nvidia. Into AI infrastructure. Into companies that WIN during the "technology arms race" Dalio warns about.

Because here's the real strategy:

You don't bet on collapse.

You bet on WHO WINS during the transition.

Nvidia isn't going to zero if the world order changes.

Nvidia is ENABLING the AI arms race.

Amazon isn't going to zero during a debt crisis.

Amazon is the infrastructure layer for the new economy.

These companies are the NEW empire.

Being built while the old one crumbles.

Dalio knows this.

That's why Bridgewater is positioned there.