Rising Capital

Backing Crypto Founders, building & hustling together.

We help Crypto & Web3 startups by providing access to Capital, Talent and Services.

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡Rising Market Pulse

🧭 Ceasefire Fails → Basel Weighting Challenged → BTC Cleaned Net-Short

• Geopolitics: Hezbollah rejects ceasefire; State Dept issues alerts across 14 Middle East nations ahead of weekend 💥
• Macro: May NFP drops tonight (consensus +85k); hot print over 120k triggers hawkish Fed scare.
• Policy: Senators Lummis & Sullivan demand Fed roll back punitive 1,250% Basel risk weighting on crypto 🏛️
• Adoption: Coinbase & Better execute first Fannie Mae-backed mortgage using Bitcoin as collateral.
• Markets: BTC heavy near weekly lows; SpaceX IPO & mega-AI funding rounds continue draining liquidity.

💵 Funding: Persistent Negative / Skew: Heavily Defensive→ Long leverage is thoroughly flushed; market is structurally net-short via speculative hedges.

What happened:
• Broader diplomatic off-ramps stalled out, forcing a flight to safety ahead of the weekend.
• The absolute "never sell" MSTR dogma remains under pressure as Saylor maintains radio silence.
• Core network integration moves forward with a pioneering $250M Fannie Mae mortgage waitlist.

Now key:
The $60k Line.
Tonight's jobs report and the threat of weekend kinetic escalation serve as dual catalysts for a potential test of the February lows.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Vulnerable ranges but heavily coiled for a squeeze due to crowded short positioning.
• Long term: Revaluing bank risk weightings represents the ultimate institutional unlock.

The leverage is gone, the market is short, and the doors are heavily insured.
Sidelined on fresh risk, harvesting elevated premiums, and watching the $60k floor.
Stay protected into the weekend.
--------
Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.

If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK

Not Financial Advice!!

#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 BTC Hits 2-Month Low at $64k → MSTR Leverage Questioned → Skew Explodes to 15v

• BTC: Drops 2.2% to test critical $64,000; macro momentum targets key $63,000 support floor 📉
• ETH: Drifts lower by 2% to slide near $1,800.
• Corporate: Market panic shifts from the 32 BTC sale to MSTR's highly leveraged capital structure and preferred stock obligations.
• Alts: HYPE completely decouples from crypto beta, showing massive relative strength; SOL $70 puts bought as tactical hedges.
• Derivs: Downside panic matches macro shifts; front-end skew explodes from 5-6v to a deeply negative 15 volatility points.

💵 BTC IV: High-50s / ETH IV: ~60 (Elevated)→ Whales are buying massive put spreads funded by aggressive call selling, leaving the market highly vulnerable to a sharp short squeeze if sentiment flips.

What happened:
• A severe risk-off wave has driven major indices to their weakest levels in over two months.
• Investors are fearing that MicroStrategy's equity structure could actively amplify Bitcoin's downside during market stress.
• The option market is demanding a historic premium for downside protection over upside participation.

Now key:
The $63,000 Floor.
If this structural macro level buckles under the weight of ongoing liquidations, the market enters a much deeper correction regime.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Orderly but intense de-risking as the market reprices structural leverage.
• Long term: The extreme options skew is creating massively discounted long-dated upside opportunities for patient capital.

Leverage loops are being stress-tested, and downside protection is at a extreme premium.
Flattening near-term risk, protecting baseline capital, and watching the $63k floor.
The tape is heavy.
--------
Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.

If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC01u6c

Not Financial Advice!!

#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 Floor Cracks → Vol Spikes to 41.4 → Macro Headwinds Intense

• BTC: Slides 11.6% on the week; struggling heavily to reclaim overhead momentum 📉
• Corporate: Strategy's symbolic 32 BTC dividend liquidation shatters the rigid "never sell" narrative.
• Macro: Stronger US job openings crush near-term rate cut hopes; Oil climbs on stalled Iran diplomacy 🛢️
• Derivs: 30D ATM implied vol surges to 41.4 (+4v on day); options surface shifts heavily to put-demand.
• Equities: Resilient on tech/AI hyperscaler strength, but concentration risk is pulling capital out of crypto beta.

💵 Real Yields: Rising / Skew: Deeply Negative→ Vol surface is screaming "insure the dip before discussing it."

What happened:
• Crypto-specific deleveraging has collided head-on with an unsupportive, higher-for-longer macro tape.
• Options whales are aggressively pricing in downside convexity, forcing a front-end term structure inversion.
• Spot prices are drifting as the market transitions to a lower-liquidity summer regime.

Now key:
The 67k–68k Region. Unless BTC can cleanly reclaim and anchor inside this technical corridor, any local bounce remains highly vulnerable to structural distribution.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Low-beta range protection as macro indicators move in the wrong direction.
• Long term: Capital is waiting to see if inflation parameters normalize before re-allocating.

The market isn't running for the exits, it's just making sure they are clearly marked.
Flattening directional leverage, holding deep cash, and insuring existing risk.
Caution is the only mandate.

--------
Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.
If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK
Not Financial Advice!!
#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 Tehran Freezes Talks → MSTR Breaks HODL Dogma → BTC Tests $70k

• Geopolitics: Iran suspends US talks, threatens to block Bab el-Mandeb Strait; energy prices spike 🎚️
• Trump: Leaks reveal expletive-laden call ordering Netanyahu to halt Beirut advance.
• Corporate: MicroStrategy discloses sale of 32 BTC—its first liquidation since Dec 2022. The flawless "infinite HODL" narrative has its first scratch. 🧱
• Technical: BTC breaks its 50% retracement level to test $70k; the 61.8% Fibonacci floor sits at $68,700.

💵 Macro: Energy Spikes / Vol: Steep Downside Skew→ Institutional accounts are actively underwriting deep downside risk to fund late-summer upside convexity.

What happened:
• Geopolitical tail risks doubled as Iran targeted a second global maritime chokepoint.
• Saylor telegraphed selling to fund dividends during Q1 earnings, but the execution caught the tape off guard.
• Broad index beta is adjusting to a tougher monetary backdrop and stalling diplomacy.

Now key:
The $68,700 Support. If the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level snaps on a daily close, the local market configuration flips firmly to a broader correction regime.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Nervous range contraction as the market digests MicroStrategy's structural transition.
• Long term: Re-anchoring corporate treasury expectations while playing the long-tenor options curve.

The narrative shield has a scratch, and the shipping lines are sweating.
Neutralising short-term leverage, underwritng cheap puts, and looking out to August.
$70k is a psychological battleground.
--------

Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.

If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK

Not Financial Advice!!

#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 Saylor Drops Tease → BTC Taps $74k → HYPE Flirts with SOL

• BTC: Rallies to $74k overnight on Saylor "orange dots" tease, mimicking mid-May pre-buy playbook 🍊
• HYPE: Just $10 away from flipping SOL in market cap as SpaceX IPO countdown intensifies.
• Alts: BNB reclaims $700; Humanity (+100% weekly) surges into June unlock; XLM rips on DTCC news.
• Derivs: Active weekend flows led by foundation covered calls and opportunistic put buying.

💵 Macro: Gold higher / Vol: Suppressed near local lows→ Traders front-running corporate buy announcements while waiting for Friday's NFP.

What happened:
• Saylor's tweet injected an immediate front-run bid into a quiet range.
• The altcoin landscape has completely decoupled from BTC beta, driven by pure idiosyncratic alpha.
• Call premiums are trading at razor-thin levels, indicating massive structural vol compression.

Now key:
The MSTR Print.
If Saylor's warning translates into an official corporate treasury buy today, the local range is shattered.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Choppy range-bound positioning ahead of Friday's heavy employment data.
• Long term: Corporate and foundational accumulation curves are steadily rising.

Corporate teases can't hide the underlying institutional accumulation.
Shedding passive index risk and concentrating capital into high-velocity alpha layers.
$74k is the immediate pivot.
--------

Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.

If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK

Not Financial Advice!!

#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 $76k Floor Snaps → $2B ETF Exits → Wealth Managers Buy the Dip

• BTC: Breaks support to press $73k; driven by relentless structural flows rather than macro panic 📉
• ETFs: -$228.9M Thursday; 9th straight day of liquidations pushes total mid-May bleed past $2B.
• Regulation: CLARITY Act passage odds collapse from 75% to 50% on a thinning Senate calendar 🏛️
• Desk Realities: Complete institutional divergence. Desks run 1.87 buy skew led by Wealth Managers (7.84 b/s) and Prop shops (3.18 b/s). ETH bought heavily sub-$2k.

💵 Macro: PCE in-line (3.8%) / Vol: Short Front-End→ Rates actually cooled this week; this is a pure crypto-native liquidity event.

What happened:
• Retail and public ETF wrappers are capitulating into a temporary regulatory vacuum.
• Smart money is aggressively stepping underneath the bleed to absorb spot supply.
• Derivatives see heavy volume rolling into long-dated upside alongside structural altcoin bets.

Now key:
ETF Exhaustion.
The underlying institutional buy bid is massive.
The moment the daily ETF redemption headline stops, the squeeze begins.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Quiet, range-bound summer grind as the Senate calendar thins.
• Long term: Real allocators are accumulating the discount. Compute is now a financial asset.

The ETF tape is lying.
Under the hood, institutions are loading up.
Harvesting range-bound volatility and scaling into long-dated upside. $73k is a flow-driven gift.
--------

Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.

If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK

Not Financial Advice!!

#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡Rising Market Pulse

🧭 Peace Mirage Explodes → Kuwait Base Struck → BTC Bleeds to $73k

• Geopolitics: Iran TV reports draft peace deal; White House calls it a "complete fabrication." Oil rebounds as US drops drones and IRGC strikes US base in Kuwait 💥
• BTC: Plunges to $73k as Trump's volatile rhetoric douses diplomatic optimism.
• Fed: Governor Cook warns inflation is tracking wrong; states she is "prepared to raise rates." 🏛️
• Macro: Tonight’s Core PCE expected at 3.3% YoY—the highest level since November 2023.
• Corporate: Temporary vacuum in MicroStrategy buying ahead of ex-dividend date leaves spot defenseless.

💵 Implied Vol: Historic Lows / Skew: Steep Puts→ Traders are aggressively exploiting cheap long-term options to hedge the macro gauntlet.

What happened:
• A brief geopolitical relief rally was violently undone by a White House denial and real-world kinetic strikes.
• Trump's social media posts promising a "future-proof" market structure were completely ignored by a mature tape.
• Spot prices are drifting dangerously close to the psychological $70k support line.

Now key:
Tonight's Core PCE. If the print clears the 3.3% hurdle, the market will lock in newly minted Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first structural move as an outright rate hike.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Nerve-wracking range erosion driven by macro liquidity starvation.
• Long term: Bypassing June noise to build structural inventory for the autumn horizon.

Social media promises can't fight kinetic missiles and a hawkish Fed. Flattening near-term leverage and buying historically cheap long-dated volatility. $70k is the true line in the sand.
--------

Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.

If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK

Not Financial Advice!!
#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 Hormuz Choke Opens → Double-Bottom Confirmed → Fairshake Power Play

• Geopolitics: 25 vessels transit Hormuz in record de-escalation; US tells Israel Iran strikes are "off the table" 🕊️
• BTC: Retests and aggressively bounces off key $75.6k support for the second time.
• Fed: Kashkari warns of multiple interest rate hikes if energy inflation persists; tomorrow's PCE is critical 🏛️
• Regulation: Crypto PAC Fairshake unseats a 20-year incumbent in Texas; anti-crypto hostility faces real election consequences.
• Treasury: MicroStrategy repurchases $1.5B in notes at 8% discount; corporate copycat Strive buys another 1,109 BTC.

💵 Flows: July Rotation / Vol: Shifting to Put Selling
→ Institutional accounts utilizing the $75.6k floor to deploy spot collateral for yield generation.

What happened:
• Energy supply anxieties are actively melting away as shipping volume hits post-war highs.
• Crypto's domestic political clout reached a new threshold with a massive Texas primary victory.
• Spot markets printed a clean technical double-bottom, ignoring hawkish Fed posturing.

Now key:
Tomorrow's Core PCE. The definitive inflation print that either empowers the Fed hawks or sparks a systemic risk-on squeeze.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Low-leverage range management ahead of the inflation data.
• Long term: Bipartisan legislative momentum is building an unshakeable structural floor.

The shipping lines are open. The political tides have turned.
Sidelining June noise and scaling heavily into July and December horizons.
$75.6k is an iron floor.
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Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.

If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK

Not Financial Advice!!

#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 SpaceX IPO Overhang → Heavy Prop Selling → Alt ETFs Net Positive

• BTC: Holds weekend floor at $77,100; capped by macro liquidity constraints 🧱
• The IPO Drain: Capital rotating out of crypto beta to build war chests for SpaceX (June 12) & OpenAI fall debuts.
• Macro: Markets price a 66% chance of zero Fed cuts this year; all eyes on Thursday’s core PCE print.

💵 BTC IV: 32v / ETH IV: 43.5v (Compressed)→ Weekend Middle East volatility spike completely mean-verted back to near-YTD lows.

What happened:
• BTC weathered a heavy institutional distribution wave to protect its $77k base.
• Proprietary desks aggressively dumped core holdings to rotate into specialized equity and alt allocations.
• Derivatives desks report a massive surge in structured upside demand for ecosystem plays like HYPE.

Now key: Thursday's April PCE. If the core inflation print beats consensus, prediction markets will aggressively shift that 33% year-end hike probability into reality.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Frustrating rangebound chop as the SpaceX listing starves the majors of structural liquidity.
• Long term: Capital is not exiting the asset class; it is migrating down the risk curve into pure alpha plays.

The macro index trade is paralyzed.
The altcoin rotation is accelerating.
Shedding core index beta, holding cash, and accumulating cheap topside structures. $77k is a fragile floor ahead of Thursday's data.

--------
Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.

If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK

Not Financial Advice!!

#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 Peace Framework Negotiated → Oil under $98 → BTC Reclaims $77k

• Geopolitics: U.S.-Iran deal "largely negotiated"; gradual Hormuz reopening planned 🕊️
• Macro: Oil hits 2-week low ($98); US equity futures indicate fresh record highs despite Russia-Ukraine weekend escalations
• BTC: Weathers $1.3B ETF outflows, flash crashes sub-$75k ($917M liquidated) before reclaiming $77k 📉

💵 25D Skew: 3-4v Put Favored / Vol: Mean-Reverting→ Saturday tension spike triggered massive put buying before vols compressed cleanly on the bounce.

What happened:
• Markets pounced on the "largely negotiated" Middle East peace framework.
• High-leverage long positions were systematically wiped out during an early weekend flush.
• ETH severely lagging the market with the ETH/BTC ratio locked at a stagnant 0.027.

Now key: Thursday's Core PCE. Alongside Q1 GDP and 8 Fed speakers, this inflation data completely decides the interest rate trajectory.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Relentless alt rotation while majors work through structural overhead supply.
• Long term: Reopening the Strait removes a massive global inflation anchor.

The tail risks are easing.
The floor has been stress-tested.
Staying cautiously constructive with a heavy preference for select alpha narratives.
$75k proved to be the absolute line in the sand.
--------
Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.

If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK

Not Financial Advice!!
#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡Rising Market Pulse

🧭 SBR Bill Introduced → House Vote Aborted → BTC Mid-Range Chop

• Policy: Congressman Begich formally introduces ARMA to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) 🇺🇸
• SBR Details: Classifies BTC as a "Tier 1" asset (equal to gold), stops U.S. Marshals sales, and mandates a 20-year hold.
• Geopolitics: Conflicting reports on Iranian uranium transfers; Trump’s "few days" deadline ticks down.
• Politics: House GOP pulls war-powers vote due to defection fears; conflict becomes a midterm liability.
• Markets: BTC stuck mid-range ($75.6k–$78.9k) ahead of the Hong Kong long weekend.

💵 DXY: Consolidating / Vol: Compressed→ General positioning remains highly defensive going into a thin-liquidity holiday window.

What happened:
• SBR legislation officially hits Capitol Hill, featuring a novel budget-neutral gold revaluation funding strategy.
• Washington scrambles for a political off-ramp as domestic support for the 80-day war fractures.
• Spot markets shrug off contradictory Reuters headlines, holding the local structural floor.

Now key: The Weekend Tail Risk. Trump's historical preference for closed-market operations clashes with low holiday liquidity. We are holding back fresh capital.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Frustrating sideways grind within a defined technical channel.
• Long term: ARMA faces a long committee battle, but sovereign validation changes the game permanently.

The war is a political liability; a diplomatic exit is becoming mandatory.
We are not chasing mid-range noise ahead of the holiday. Sidelined, patient, and accumulating strictly on support tests.
--------

Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.

If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK

Not Financial Advice!!

#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡Rising Market Pulse

🧭 Peace Rumors → Hawkish Fed Minutes → NVIDIA Blowout

• BTC: Grinds back to reclaim $78k; immediate technical target sits at $78.9k 📈
• Geopolitics: Saudi reports hint at an imminent U.S.-Iran deal draft; rumored $25B asset unfreeze
• Fed: April minutes drop a bombshell; majority favors a rate hike under Kevin Warsh if inflation persists 🏛️
• NVIDIA: Blowout Q1 revenue at $81.62B vs. $79B exp. Trading slightly lower after-hours on "sell-the-news"
• Policy: Bitcoin Policy Institute hints at a landmark Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) update tomorrow 🇺🇸

💵 Options: Extreme Put Skew / Bias: Defensive July Convexity→ Desk actively exploiting cheap topside structures amid peak market fear.

What happened:
• Unconfirmed Middle East peace rumors trigger a relief grind, shrugging off defiant political rhetoric.
• The Fed officially targets sticky supercore inflation, setting up a structural clash with the White House.
• Tech earnings prove structural pricing power remains flawless, despite local market fatigue.

Now key: Tomorrow’s Capitol Hill SBR Update. If the federal government legally codifies its holdings into a permanent reserve, the supply dynamics flip instantly.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Options market remains heavily put-skewed, offering cheap topside entry points.
• Long term: We are skipping June noise and targeting July expiries to match the Clarity Act signature timeline.

The Fed is threatening hikes, but structural crypto policy is building a fortress.
Positioning defensively for July with structured upside convexity and a deep downside cushion.
Capital preservation is locked in. Waiting for the spark.
--------

Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.

If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK

Not Financial Advice!!

#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 Senate Restricts Trump → Truth Social Pulls ETF → BTC Holds $77k

• BTC: Tests $76k overnight before reclaiming $77k; consolidating in a tight, heavy range 📉
• Geopolitics: Senate passes war-powers resolution 50-47; veto override still unlikely as Israel warns strike is "when, not if"
• Regulation: Trump's Truth Social withdraws Bitcoin ETF filing; market smells progress on Clarity Act ethics negotiations 🏛️
• Banking: Trump signs landmark EO ordering the Fed to give fintech and crypto firms equal access to the payment system

💵 Macro: Energy caps upside / Bias: Cautious but Accumulating July→ Near-term price softness is being utilised by clients to layer into July upside convexity.

What happened:
• Congress throws a procedural wrench into the Iran conflict, but the geopolitical risk premium remains sticky.
• The White House kills Operation Chokepoint style debanking with a sweeping new Executive Order.
• Spot markets absorb macro headwinds; downside momentum is slowing down at the $76k base.

Now key: The July Rotation. Institutional flow is skipping June exposure entirely and front-running the final passage of the Clarity Act later this summer.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Tight, range-bound consolidation with extreme vulnerability to any sudden military headlines.
• Long term: Truth Social’s strategic exit from the ETF race hints that a clean regulatory breakthrough is close.

Geopolitics is capping the ceiling, but regulation is building a floor.
Treating geopolitical panic drops as tactical entry points for July.
Staying cautious, hedged, and patient.
--------

Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.

If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK

Not Financial Advice!!

#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡Rising Market Pulse

🧭 Strike Reversal Fails → 4.6% Yield Shock → $648M ETF Bleed

• BTC: Flat at $76,950; Trump’s Iran de-escalation fails to ignite a relief rally 📉
• Yields: US 10Y breaks 4.6% to one-year high; UK long-bonds tap 28-year peaks 📈
• Fed: Futures completely flip; now pricing a rate hike over the next 12 months (51% odds for Dec) 🏛️
• ETFs: Institutional exit intensifies; -$648.6M flushed out yesterday alone
• Desk: Prop shops (.81) & Hedge Funds (.65) heavy sellers. HYPE obliterated (.28). SOL bucking the trend (1.36).

💵 Brent: >$112 / Skew: Put-Dominant→ Desk flows show heavy morning demand for near-dated downside protection.

What happened:
• Politics attempted to deliver a peace bid, but the bond market completely ignored it.
• Global energy pass-through has institutional allocators panicking over sticky inflation.
• BTC is taking massive structural damage from an accelerated ETF capitulation run.

Now key: The Wednesday Gauntlet. April FOMC Minutes (2 PM ET) + NVIDIA ($79B revenue target) after the bell tomorrow. If tech misses, crypto loses the mid-$70k floor.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Options market remains heavily put-favored on the front end.
• Long term: The "Fed Cut" is officially a 2027 story. Liquidity starvation has arrived.

The rate cut is a fantasy.
The inflation drag is real.
Staying bearishly cautious, holding high cash, and buying the puts. $77k is a paper shield.
--------

Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.

If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK

Not Financial Advice!!

#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡Rising Market Pulse

🧭 Geopolitical Shock → $600M Flush → BTC $77k Support

• BTC: Breaks range to hit $76.7k; currently fighting to hold the 50-day EMA 📉
• Macro: Trump social media post + Iran friction sparks global weekend de-risking
• Institutions: BlackRock & Harvard Endowment trim crypto exposure; retail hype neutralized 🏛️
• Alts: AI tokens (TAO, FET) and Memes (BONK) hit with brutal 20%+ weekly corrections
• Tech: AI sector worries grow as capital expenditure drops on Wall Street

💵 Oil: 2-Week High / Skew: Heavy Puts (5-7v)→ Fast money is aggressively rushing for downside insurance.

What happened:
• A weekend geopolitical scare triggered a massive $600M leverage liquidation.
• The $80k structural floor has officially broken.
• Major institutional heavyweights are quietly distributing their positions.

Now key: The 50-day EMA ($76.7k). If this level snaps on a daily close, the macro structure flips firmly to the bears.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Aggressive rush for market protection after weeks of rangebound complacency.
• Long term: Crypto is absorbing the dual shock of sticky energy costs and tech sector cooling.

The range is broken. The smart money is scaling back. Staying bearishly cautious, buying puts, and holding high cash. $80k is now heavy overhead resistance.
--------

Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.

If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK

Not Financial Advice!!

#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 BTC < $80k → $1.3B ETF Bleed → The Warsh Era Begins

• BTC: Breaks $80k; erases Thursday rally on hawkish data 📉
• Inflation: PPI hits 6% YoY (Highest since 2022); CPI at 3.8%.
• Fed: Kevin Warsh confirmed as Chair; 39% odds of a rate hike being priced in. 🏛️
• ETFs: -$1.3B net outflows this week; institutional exit is accelerating.
• Regulation: CLARITY Act clears Senate Banking (15-9); floor test next.

What happened:
• Inflation fears returned with a vengeance; first Fed cut window now Jan 2027.
• Spot desk saw heavy sell bias (0.69) led by hedge funds.
• ETH DVOL hit a 2-year low; volatility is being sold into the ground.

Now key: The $75,000 Support. If the global bond selloff continues, the "Higher-for-Longer" reality will test the $70k handle.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Relentless selling pressure and low-vol grind lower.
• Long term: Market awaiting the 60-vote floor test for the CLARITY Act.

The inflation trap is shut.
Warsh is in.
ETFs are out.

Buying downside protection and long-dated volatility. $80k is the new ceiling.
--------

Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.

If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK

Not Financial Advice!!
#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡Rising Market Pulse

🧭 6% PPI Shock → Clarity Act Stalls → BTC Decouples

• Inflation: PPI hits 6% YoY—fastest since 2022. Macro heat is back 📈
• Regulation: Clarity Act hits a wall; 100+ amendments delay the timeline. 2026 approval looking "unlikely" 🧱
• TradFi: Nasdaq hits record highs on Cisco surge, but Crypto is refusing to follow.
• BTC: Under steady selling pressure; ETF outflows accelerating materially.

💵 10Y Yield: 4.5% / Desk: Selling Bias→ Crypto is pricing in the inflation reality that equities are ignoring.

What happened:
• BTC and ETH decoupled from the Nasdaq rally.
• The "Warren Wall" (100+ amendments) has effectively killed the immediate legislative hype.
• Institutional ETF selling is now the dominant force on the tape.

Now key: The 4.5% Yield Level. This is the technical "line in the sand" for global liquidity. If it holds, risk assets face a long summer.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Steady selling pressure as regulatory optimism fades.
• Long term: If the Clarity Act doesn't clear this month, the 2026 window is likely closed.

Equities are in a bubble; Crypto is in the bin. The 6% PPI is the real headline. The Clarity Act delay is the real pain. Staying bearish, cautious, and heavily hedged.

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Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.

If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC01u6c

Not Financial Advice!!

#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 $80k Holds → China PPI Flips → Beijing Gauntlet

• BTC: Consolidating at $82k (200-day SMA). Floor is firm, but $84k is a wall. 🧱
• Inflation: Core CPI 2.8% (Hot). Driven by Shelter; Goods still soft. 🏠
• Global: China PPI turns positive for the first time in 3.5 years. Disinflation tailwind is fading. 🇨🇳
• Macro: Trump-Xi Beijing Summit + Senate CLARITY Act session starts tomorrow. 🏛️

💵 VIX: Subdued / Vol: Compressed→ Market is waiting for a "Permission to Move" from the Beijing headlines.

What happened:
• $80k survived a hawkish CPI print. Resilience is the theme.
• Shelter inflation is doing the heavy lifting; the Fed remains on high alert.
• BTC is shrugging off "heavy" positioning to hold the 200-day average.

Now key: The Beijing Summit. Trump and Xi could reset the trade narrative tomorrow. Until then, we’re in a range-bound crouch.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Orderly consolidation ($80k–$84k).
• Long term: Reclaiming $84k requires a legislative or diplomatic "Win."

Resilience > Conviction right now.
$80k floor is confirmed.
$84k ceiling is locked.
Waiting for the Beijing spark.

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Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.

If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK

Not Financial Advice!!

#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡Rising Market Pulse

🧭 $82.2k Wall → Hot CPI → Warsh Confirmed

• BTC: Failed 4th attempt at $82,200; stuck in rangebound chop 🧱
• Inflation: Core CPI hot at +0.4% (vs. 0.3% exp). Inflation is broadening 📈
• Fed: Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair; Powell’s exit looms this Friday
• ETFs: Thin $27M inflow after massive $423M outflow last week
• Desk: BTC better sold (.79); ETH seeing bid (.115). Alts: SOL/XRP bid; PEPE/ONDO sold

💵 Vol: Depressed (30s) / Skew: Heading to Parity→ Market is coiled. Selling puts while waiting for the Thursday "Clarity" trigger.

What happened:
• BTC hit a technical ceiling for the 4th time in 2 weeks.
• Hot CPI print confirms inflation is "sticky" beyond just energy.
• Kevin Warsh takes the wheel during a 3-day macro gauntlet.

Now key:
The $82,200 Resistance. Until we break this, we are just noise-trading.
Thursday’s CLARITY Act markup is the most likely fuel.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Rangebound frustration ($80k–$82.2k).
• Long term: Reclaiming $82.2k during Powell's exit signals a new regime.

Inflation is hot. Warsh is in. BTC is stuck. Selling puts and rolling ETH calls higher. $82.2k is the line in the sand.
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Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.

If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK

Not Financial Advice!!

#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY