Cervello Capital

CNS/metabolic disease investor, biopharma lawyer, gambler and coach. Mostly wrong. Never investment advice.

[Cervello Capital @riskadjoptimist]

Been absolutely loading $TGTX. Went back and listened to the BofA call with MW. There are 40000 new patients starting on -CD20s each year. MW said capturing 10% “is probably high this year” so using 5% and 59k we get $120M sales for 23’ and this seems to be well on pace. 1/4

[Seedy19 @seedy19tron]

***long idea***
Multibagger long idea $BETR.CN
Now before you guys come at me for being bullish a pink sheet name, they literally closed $100M raise led by Deep Track with RA, Perceptive, Marshall Wace, Coastlands, plus Adage, Woodline, Squadron, Stonepine. How often do you see that many big names in a CSE microcap.

Asset is BETR001 = BOL148, a non hallucinogenic, non controlled LSD analog. No trip means no clinic sit, no REMS, and potential at home dosing. That's a different commercial model to the psych names. And if you missed the psych names well just like $ANL after $eras and $rvmd had run here is one with good r/r. BTW it’s lower right now than what all the big names paid $0.25..

Human signal: Karst 2010 in Cephalalgia, refractory cluster headache pts, 3 doses over 10 days. Cycles broken or sharply reduced, remissions lasting mos, no BP or HR changes. Tiny open label set, but it's the exact molecule in humans.

Valuation: I have it at ~726M shs incl PFWs at ~C$0.225, ~$140M FD with warrants and converts, ~$90M net cash. EV ~$50M. At a time where psych names are in the billions.

It will take some time to play out but if you’re patient: IND 1Q27, then Ph1a in healthy volunteers, then Ph1b in cluster and migraine run in parallel, then ph2 in both. Proceeds are earmarked through ph2.

What gets you to 5 to 10x? clean ph1, ph2 cluster data showing cycle breaking, and broader US access over time. Again that is a a 2 to 3 yr data path, not a 12 mo trade. But worth a punt.

And like any investment theres risks with these names Ceruvia (private) is running the same molecule and is ahead. IP sits on a 1950s compound. CSE liquidity is thin. There's overhang from C$0.06 converts and C$0.10 warrants. The team is tiny. So size small and know the risks. Again pink sheet and you HAVE time to get in before any major moves so no fomo pls.

Disclaimer: I am long , not financial advice.

[Cervello Capital @riskadjoptimist]

@seedy19tron Great summary. Love this setup and their CEO. Only thing I’d include is that $SPTX also chasing this MoA with Glyph2BLSD, and they’re also on track to complete first-in-human-enabling studies by the end of 2027 w/ more resources. Depending on how u look at it thats + or -

[Bruce Booth @LifeSciVC]

Very apt metaphor from Gline: "Biotech is a wood chipper that is built to ingest souls and shred them..."

[Cervello Capital @riskadjoptimist]

@BioValues If that is what they hit I don’t see how this isn’t worth $1-2B at this respective stage of dev, the strat value to $LLY & $NVO and other BP looking for entry into a $150-200B pk TAM according to WS

[Cervello Capital @riskadjoptimist]

@masonat7 @BioValues Both of your analyses helped with my decision to invest- thank you and GL Monday.

[Cervello Capital @riskadjoptimist]

@OMillionaires They’re often paired together (for good or mixed data). I think this leans bullish but we’re not out of the woods yet. Mixed data often gets presented on Monday pre to show confidence and it can still get kneecapped if mkt doesn’t agree.

[Cervello Capital @riskadjoptimist]

@parker_brydon Roots bought by US

[Cervello Capital @riskadjoptimist]

@PersimmonTI Very interesting. I’m having trouble valuing the upside case here. If it hits on WL and AEs where does this go? I can argue that on an adjusted pure peak sales multiple this could 10x to $2B but that is crazy. Similar to early days vktx

[Cervello Capital @riskadjoptimist]

@Andre_AGTC I think that’s the way in. If kv7 successful and they raise post-dilution. The binary risk combined with the dilution en route down if it fails is too great. I like the degraders but they desperately need cash / excuse to raise

[Cervello Capital @riskadjoptimist]

All good things but $BHVN burning $ like it grows on trees. R&D $100M/G&A $25M in Q2 and this is AFTER tightening their belt. Only have $270M in cash. Kv7 pivotal guided to 2H 2026……if that’s Q4 they’ll be on fumes and if that’s not the golden goose to raise on soon then what is?

[Cervello Capital @riskadjoptimist]

@Andre_AGTC Big fan of this CEO hire

[Andre-ACGT @Andre_AGTC]

$TGTX MC 7B
Lower profits in Q2 but gaining market
Currently 7% market share, projected to peak at 20%
Progress in SQ in MS and moving to ph2 in MG
-11% today is not bc the progress is bad or the margin get lower (66%) but bc the stock appreciated +60% YTD

[Cervello Capital @riskadjoptimist]

@Taintslapp12283 @AmateurBioturd $PFE literally loves to buy slop. For a lot of money. Just look at their M&A history.

[Cervello Capital @riskadjoptimist]

@Gogols_Nose @jeremie0117 What’s the angle

[Cervello Capital @riskadjoptimist]

@Deewinusa @economyninja This is correct. Also the carry trade unwinding will support the yen. People will need to buy it back to unwind the positions. The reason they intervened wasn’t anything to do with the carry trade or JPY fear but rather the US fear of JPY selling its US treasuries to support

[Osprey Cap II @dsjdirect]

$XBI I think the best thing about investing in this sector is that it is tremendously inefficient, in my opinion. Generalist investors are generally lost. Deep specialists, by contrast, see things in their research that give them tremendous advantages over the vast majority of investors.

[Cervello Capital @riskadjoptimist]

@Andre_AGTC @Pharmdca Vktx mgmt couldn’t manage a lemonade stand. They destroy value. They will need to raise again.

[Cervello Capital @riskadjoptimist]

@MarketMike @skyy_savage Those are real assets

[Andre-ACGT @Andre_AGTC]

$HELP
Completed the enrollment in adj MDD
Primary endpoint is change from baseline in MADRS at 6 weeks after the first dose compared to placebo
Secondary - after 12 w
Data in Q4 - probably Oct - up to mid Nov.

[Cervello Capital @riskadjoptimist]

@Andre_AGTC Nevermind I see $CRBP