@[email protected]. Future of Food, Post-Capitalism/Future of Work. Association of Professional Futurists member. Indonesian, currently in San Sebastian
@M0im3m3@lukOlejnik I believe it was supposed to max out at 30C for defrosting, but they override safety controls to max out at 50c. Reuters reported some of the units may have caught fire
@tunguz On my long list of things is to turn a book about futures studies into an app. Depending on your focus/level, it dynamically adjust texts and visuals to match, its interactive and allows you go off different lines/threads of thought
Dario has written that we need to “pace the frontier,” and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead.
You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric — market share, revenue growth, model capability — the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. You’ve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement.
I don’t see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible.
But stop pretending you need anyone else’s permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren’t even at the frontier.
Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic. You face massive product-liability exposure if your products enable a truly damaging cyberattack. The market already punishes models that behave in unpredictable or unauthorized ways. After the Hugging Face episode, it is simply good business for OpenAI and Anthropic to trade some raw power for reliability and predictability. Call it alignment if you want. It is also just giving customers what they want.
Pacing the frontier would also create breathing room for a more intelligent conversation about regulation than Bernie Sanders’ “shut it all down.” China is very unlikely to join a global agreement, as you know, and that has to be taken into account as well.
So go ahead and pace the frontier. You are the ones setting it. The easiest way not to build superintelligence is for you to agree not to build it. Demanding your preferred regulatory framework as the price of that will look like blackmail of the public and the political system. So just do it.
If you do, you’ll buy goodwill for the next conversation. If you don’t, we’ll know this was just another bid for regulatory capture — or an election-season psyop.
Scientists: “Here is the scientific evidence we are passing the point of no return with climate change.”
Everyone: “Whatever.”
Bro who worked at Anthropic for six weeks: “AI is gonna kill us all in three years!”
Everyone: *panicking* “OMG, we have to do something!”
@briansolis Is it because SF Tech Bros cannot fathom the US govt or International Community taking legal, even extra-legal action, against them - even physical detention?
@briansolis I don’t understand this at all. If there is more than 1% chance that AI will destroy humanity in a few years, why not shut down all further training and detain all AI scientists at Anthropic and OpenAI? The level of doom vs call to action doesn’t seem sensible.
@Geofutures Are American techbros okay? We don’t hear this sort of talk from China do we? Silicon Valley is a hyper-narrow minded culture and I fear they are just one big cult now
@Austen I took the train from Jakarta to Surabaya this week, and on my car alone there were at least 6 people with folding phones. Considering the small fortune that costs in Indonesia, suggest a high demand in Southeast Asia at least.
@shanaka86 Love your insights and follow you on substack, but please add a Claude skill to avoid Claude/AI style writing. It takes 10-15 minutes and helps your writing a lot
The reason why we have glorious cathedrals, statues and art is because the richest and most powerful people of the time wanted to impress the masses. AI companies should learn from this, they should think hard about how to impress the masses. Maths proofs and automated coding is cool and here, in our in group, we all love it, but I bet that even solving a Millennium Prize problem would barely make the front pages.
Doing something real, visible and unambiguously good (i.e. NOT driverless cars) would be a huge big win. Maybe as a new way to desalinate water, lower bill, cheaper groceries. That way, companies will start to get some real political support and not just have to convince the elites that it is good to invest in AI and build that data centre.
Maybe someone needs to speak to a normal person and see what they would like AI to do for them.