Riyad Altayeb

Back, after @elonmusk bought Twitter | Fond of Economics, Politics & Technology | 1 BTC = 1 BTC

[Republicans against Trump @RpsAgainstTrump]

Blue tsunami: Republicans are now playing defense deep in red America, with GOP-aligned groups spending money in more than a half-dozen districts that Trump won by at least 15 points in 2024.

“The numbers are somewhere between shitabulous and craptastic,” a top Republican advising several federal races across the country told Axios. “It looks worse than 2018 now. Trump is heading to Bush 2006 levels.”

[RE | BTC @RentalFIGuy]

Mortgage rates hit 7.45% yesterday😳‼️

Same house. Same price. Very different payment.

2.99% mortgage: $1,807/month
7.45% mortgage: $2,986/month

That’s $1,179 more every month without the price of the home changing.

Affordability isn’t just about home prices.

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

Physical oil is much more expensive than paper oil.

Dated Brent reflects the price you have to pay for physical delivery rather than futures.

- Dated Brent: $123
- Brent futures: $105

The physical market remains extremely tight.

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

The Fed is printing money to buy US Treasury bills... more than during Covid.

- Covid: ~$320B
- Last 9 months: ~$355B

Everyone is talking about the Fed hike... no one is talking about Warsh printing money Covid-style to buy UST bills.

At the same time, Bessent is issuing more UST bills to buy back US long-term debt.

In other words, the Treasury buyback is nothing else than QE in disguise.

We don't own enough hard assets for what's coming.

[Julian Liniger @julian_liniger]

The global bond market is melting! 🚨

🇺🇸 US 10Y: ~5.2%
🇪🇺 Germany 10Y: ~3.6%
🇯🇵 Japan 10Y: ~3.1%

Governments now have two options:

Cut spending hard, or inflate their way out.

History tells you which one they will choose.

This is why we need Bitcoin:

21 million.
No central bank.
No money printer.

₿ullish! 🧡

[Barchart @Barchart]

U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield closes at 5.49%, the highest level in more than 22 years 🚨 🚨

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: 30-year mortgage rate has hit 7.17%, per MW

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

Diesel here in Germany is at €2.49/liter...

That's ~$11 per gallon.

Germany is fucked.

[Andrew Lokenauth @FluentInFinance]

30-year mortgage rates just hit 7.17%

A $500,000 mortgage over 30 years:

$1,891/month at 2.17%
$3,384/month at 7.17%

That’s $537,500 more for the same home

And the odds of a Fed rate hike this week are 92%

Homeownership has become a luxury

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The 10Y Note Yield rises to 5.04%, its highest level since July 2007.

This pushes the average interest rate on a 30Y mortgage up to 7.17%.

Homeownership is officially a luxury.

[Thomas Massie @RepThomasMassie]

To fund an overextended empire, Roman emperors debased their coins by diluting the precious metal content.

This week, Congress will vote to eliminate the PENNY, which was already mostly zinc since 1982. The same bill will allow the U.S. Mint to make NICKELS with cheaper metal.

[Barchart @Barchart]

Never Forget 👇

[Robert Kiyosaki @theRealKiyosaki]

FYI: Found it interesting that my last post asked:

“ What is your life’s mission?”

Only a relatively few of you liked the question.

For me, that has been my life’s most important question.

Interesting.

Take care.

[Barchart @Barchart]

Nvidia Insider Trading Alert 🚨

Mark Stevens, the 2nd largest Nvidia shareholder and board member since 2008, just dumped $186 million worth of $NVDA shares 🤯👀

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

BREAKING: Michael Saylor’s Strategy reveals it may sell up to $1,250,000,000.00 of Bitcoin.

[Barchart @Barchart]

Stock Market could plunge 70% warns Permabear Jeremy Grantham 📉 📉

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Most people do not realize how many tech giants are already deep bear market territory.

Tech Stocks From Record Highs:

1. Coinbase, $COIN: -69%
2. Oracle, $ORCL: -57%
3. Salesforce, $CRM: -57%
4. ServiceNow, $NOW: -56%
5. Netflix, $NFLX: -48%
6. Palantir, $PLTR: -48%
7. Microsoft, $MSFT: -37%
8. Meta, $META: -32%
9. Arm Holdings, $ARM: -27%
10. Broadcom, $AVGO: -26%
11. Marvell Technology, $MRVL: -20%
12. Nvidia, $NVDA: -19%
13. Amazon, $AMZN: -19%
14. Alphabet, $GOOGL: -17%
15. CrowdStrike, $CRWD: -15%
16. Apple, $AAPL: -14%
17. Taiwan Semiconductor, $TSM: -12%

The S&P 500 won't tell you this.

[Myron Gaines @MyronGainesX]

Israel's days of influence in the US are numbered...

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Apple, $AAPL, has raised the prices of its Macs and iPads due to soaring chip costs.

Among the price increases:

1. MacBook Air increased +$200 to $1,299
2. Base MacBook Pro increased +$300 to $1,999
3. Base MacBook Neo increased +$100 to $699
4. iPad Air increased +$150 to $749
5. iPad Pro increased +$200 to $1,199

Tim Cook said soaring chip costs made the price hike "unavoidable."

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

The largest foreign owner of US government debt is now a seller, and not by choice.

Japan is burning through its reserves to rescue a collapsing yen, and almost all of those reserves are American Treasuries. Saving its currency means selling ours.

The yen just touched its weakest in nearly 40 years, around 162 to the dollar. Defending it cost Japan a record 11.7 trillion yen, about 73 billion dollars, in a single month. That money came straight out of its foreign reserves, which fell 75.6 billion dollars, the steepest drop ever recorded, and US custody data shows foreign official holdings of Treasuries falling right alongside it. The dots connect themselves.

The cruel part is the loop underneath. The yen is weak mainly because US interest rates tower over Japan's. But selling Treasuries pushes US rates higher. So every dollar Tokyo spends defending the yen lifts the very American yields that are sinking the yen to begin with. The medicine is the poison.

Washington is watching closely. Japan holds 1.24 trillion dollars in US debt, more than any nation on earth, and the Treasury Secretary has already told Tokyo that turmoil in Japan's bond market could bleed into America's. A draft Japanese strategy this week put it bluntly: making real use of these reserves would mean selling US Treasuries.

For 40 years the arrangement was unspoken and reliable. Japan buys American debt and holds it, the patient creditor who never sells. That just broke. The buyer who was always supposed to be there has been forced to the other side of the trade, and it cannot stop without watching its own currency come apart.

Most folks are reading this as a yen story. It is a US bond story. The safest debt on earth just lost one of the steadiest buyers it ever had.