Robert Carruthers

Independent retail/consumer analyst & journalist. Director of research company ConsumerCast.

[Robert Carruthers @RJCarruthers]

@thebenfromMI @motherquoter @ikisnick Not really.

[Robert Carruthers @RJCarruthers]

@motherquoter Your ignorance of England is profound:
Sandbanks, Dorset; Holkham, Norfolk; West Wittering, West Sussex.
Are those "beachy" enough for you?

[Robert Carruthers @RJCarruthers]

The retail recovery genuinely under way since the start of 2025 has been stopped in its tracks by rocketing petrol prices. Even seasonally-adjusted, excluding the effect of losing Good Friday from the April figures, and ex fuel, sales were up just 1.1% on 2025.

[Robert Carruthers @RJCarruthers]

Extra budget for petrol seems to have pulled money away from people's pre-summer wardrobes as well as general merchandise. Health & beauty boomed, possibly indicating a recessionary outlook for consumers, with a "lipstick effect".

[Robert Carruthers @RJCarruthers]

@julianHjessop I think the LSE study pointed to non-tariff barriers as the biggest potential factor i.e. post 2020
Don't believe it myself, just saying https://t.co/6S25syKFcW

[Robert Carruthers @RJCarruthers]

@kientan74 @julianHjessop Share of food as % of household spending is highly influenced by overall standards of living (low share=wealthier) & also by cultural factors e.g. Italian shoppers often prepared to spend more on high quality - artisan, fresh, healthy vs. commoditised, ultra-processed (US, UK)

[Robert Carruthers @RJCarruthers]

@RollingHedge @grok @ColeFusionHQ @DamianPudner This is nonsense. Monetary velocity has increased 10-15% since 2021, falsifying your missing inflation argument and "properly measured" inflation includes spending on non-essentials. All UK households, however poor, spend money on things other than housing, energy and food.

[Robert Carruthers @RJCarruthers]

@MerrynSW The point here is that households only need to reach stasis in terms of net cash position to start making a strong contribution to growth. i.e. increases in income become rises in spending. Accelerating retail sales growth suggests this may be happening.

[Robert Carruthers @RJCarruthers]

"Better than expected" @ONS retail sales in March, apparently. For those of us unable to read a trend literally shouting its presence in everyone's face for at least the past year, perhaps.

[Robert Carruthers @RJCarruthers]

Health & beauty and online leading the charge.
Slow growth in electrical and furniture perhaps an indicator of consumer caution on big ticket, reflecting concern about economic situation and property market.

[Robert Carruthers @RJCarruthers]

@vbspurs @JakeAlex92 "I was raised not to bring anything to another person's home in the UK"
Then you were badly brought up then. I was taught arriving empty-handed was rude.

[Robert Carruthers @RJCarruthers]

@vbspurs It really isn't considered bad manners to do this in the UK at all.
What are you talking about?

[Robert Carruthers @RJCarruthers]

@Archie_Saunders Original one in Old Compton Street was great. The cakes were amazing. Sad that it got blown up by private equity and lost its soul.

[Robert Carruthers @RJCarruthers]

@GRIT0DESAUDADE Because it's not depressing?

[Robert Carruthers @RJCarruthers]

@GordonMcKeeMP We don't want a third runway at Heathrow. It would spread noise and pollution across huge swathes of west London, affecting millions.
Heathrow is in the wrong place and needs relocating.

[Robert Carruthers @RJCarruthers]

@julianHjessop +1.8% based on month-on-month comparisons with December.
@ONS How many "seasonally adjusted" mince pies, turkeys and Christmas trees are sold in January?
Vs Jan 2025, the growth rate (vol, ex fuel, unadjusted) was v strong (+6.2 %) and accelerating

[Robert Carruthers @RJCarruthers]

So setting aside the volatile and rather meaningless month on month comps of @ONS, it turns out that yes, there is a strengthening retail recovery going into 2026. Happy days!
Spend on home going great guns. Massive online/non-store growth looks a bit 🤨 though