Ruben Joseph

Headline monkey for @Livesquawk

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

12% chance Kharg Island is seized by the end of the month. https://t.co/YxB8y90aIc

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Goldman Sachs has raised its December 2026 #Gold price forecast to $4,900/oz (from $4,300 prev), citing strong & persistent inflows that have fueled a 17% rally since Aug26. The bank says continued buying from Western ETFs and CenBanks appears to be durable, prompting it to lift the base level of its pricing outlook.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

BREAKING: The eight key OPEC+ countries agree to increase their production by 137,000 b/d from November.

Saudi Arabia and Russia privately had an argument about how much to hike; the consensus was achieved at the lower end of the range of increases discussed | #OOTT

[LiveSquawk @LiveSquawk]

Canada CPI NSA (M/M) Jun: 0.1% (est 0.1%; prev 0.6%)
- CPI (Y/Y): 1.9% (est 1.9%; prev 1.7%)
- CPI Core - Median (Y/Y): 3.1% (est 3.0%; prev 3.0%)
- CPI Core - Trim (Y/Y): 3.0% (est 3.0%; prev 3.0%)

[LiveSquawk @LiveSquawk]

US CPI (M/M) Jun: 0.3% (est 0.3%; prev 0.1%)
- Core CPI (M/M): 0.2% (est 0.3%; prev 0.1%)
- CPI (Y/Y): 2.7% (est 2.6%; prev 2.4%)
- Core CPI (Y/Y): 2.9% (est 2.9%; prev 2.8%)

[Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ @mercoglianos]

Update on the collision between the tankers Front Eagle and Adalynn outside the Strait of Hormuz off Oman on June 17, 2025.

▶️ @TankerTrackers reports no AIS/GPS Spoofing during the collision but Front Eagle encountered it in the Persian Gulf.
▶️24 crew of Adalynn picked up by UAE coast guard and vessel on fire
▶️Not clear why Front Eagle turned right toward Adalynn; unknown if mechanical or human error.
▶️ @UK_MTO reports increasing electronic interference in the area.
▶️ Adalynn is identified as a "shadow fleet" vessel for Russia and was in ballast and Front Eagle was loaded and enroute to China.

[Chris Lunday @lundayfunday]

🚨 It’s on: Bundestag will hold a second Merz vote at 15:15 today.

All factions have been summoned — full attendance expected. Final talks at 14:15.

This is the make-or-break moment for Merz. 🇩🇪

@POLITICOEurope

[Ruben Joseph @rjosephLS]

RT @ChrisStadele: Just FYI to everyone that follows the #oil #oott markets….

Canary LLC, one of the largest wellhead services (drilling eq…

[LiveSquawk @LiveSquawk]

US Change in Private Payrolls Apr: 167K (est 125K; prev 209K)
- Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: -1K (est -5K; prev 1K)
- Change In Government Payrolls: 10K (prev 19K)
- Avg Weekly Hours All Employees: 34.4 (est 34.2; prev 34.2)
- Labour Force Participation Rate: 62.6% (est 62.5%; prev 62.5%)
- Underemployment Rate: 7.8% (prev 7.9%)

[LiveSquawk @LiveSquawk]

US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Apr: 177K (est 138K; prev 228K; prevR 195K)
- Unemployment Rate: 4.1% (est 4.2%; prev 4.2%)
- Avg Hourly Earnings (M/M): 0.2% (est 0.3%; prev 0.3%)
- Avg Hourly Earnings (Y/Y): 3.8% (est 3.9%; prev 3.8%)

[Annmarie Hordern @annmarie]

Trump will speak at an “Investing in America” event today at 4:00 pm.

CEOs from various companies— including Nvidia, Johnson & Johnson, and SoftBank— will visit the White House today.

Companies have been invited to attend and have their products on display in the residence’s foyer, according to a White House official.

[ING Economics @ING_Economics]

Germany's disinflationary trends picking up in the near term could prompt the ECB to bring policy rates deeper into neutral territory, notes @carstenbrzeski
https://t.co/8ucO4HZfyL

[Chris Stadele @ChrisStadele]

Is Japan (or specifically the Bank 0f Japan) winning the battle on inflation?...... Sadly, no.

As the chart below illustrates, Japan’s inflation rate climbed to a 2-year high in January, even though the BOJ has raised interest rates three times since early 2024.

The next inflation figures will be released on March 20th, and will likely give a more solid clue about the path of interest rates than blanket statements from BOJ officials.

In the meantime, Japan’s 4Q2024 GDP data, scheduled for release next Monday, will obviously show the health of their economy, and could also provide some hints regarding their battle on inflation. (A crippling inflation rate should weigh on GDP)

This will likely have massive implications for the Japanese Yen, which has been strengthening throughout most of 2025.

I aim to do more analysis and charting on the Japanese yen for next week’s @LiveSquawk Commodity Corner newsletter, so please stay tuned! (This week’s is already plum full!)

If you’d like to subscribe, please click here: https://t.co/4gTNPnTkvD

EVERYTHING DISCUSSED ABOVE IS JUST AN OPINION, AND NOT FINANCIAL/TRADING ADVICE. (Yen chart courtesy CQG (snapshot as approximately 6AM CST, 3/6/25), Inflation chart courtesy @tEconomics )

#trading #markets #investing #commodities #crypto

[Bloomberg @business]

Israeli forces struck targets in the Iranian capital Tehran early Saturday, fulfilling Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s pledge to retaliate for an Oct. 1 ballistic-missile barrage https://t.co/chrGYqxVOg

[LiveSquawk @LiveSquawk]

US GDP Annualized (Q/Q), 2Q T: 3.0% (est 2.9%; past 3.0%)
- Personal Consumption, 2Q T: 2.8% (est 2.9%; past 2.9%)
- GDP Price Index, 2Q T: 2.5% (est 2.5%; past 2.5%)
- Core PCE Price Index (Q/Q), 2Q T: 2.8% (est 2.8%; past 2.8%)

[Bloomberg @business]

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said it is now appropriate for the central bank to reduce interest rates, given progress on lowering inflation and a cooling in the labor market. https://t.co/pgxIJPZhpE

[Bloomberg @business]

US Treasuries gained, pushing yields lower, after a mixed report on the US labor market reinforced traders’ bets that the Federal Reserve may push through a super-sized interest-rate cut this month. https://t.co/vWuWcRTr5V

[Ruben Joseph @rjosephLS]

Joe #Biden withdraws from presidential race following debate debacle - @guardian
https://t.co/5wjthcRFOE

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Fed staff expect core PCE rose 2.75% in April from a year earlier.

Most analysts likewise have core PCE rising by 0.24% in April

That would put the 6-month annualized rate of core PCE inflation at 3.2%

https://t.co/eLc12D78jL

[Ruben Joseph @rjosephLS]

The world's largest investment manager BlackRock has warned of further deterioration in the geopolitical backdrop for financial markets in 2024, adding that asset markets aren't fully appreciating the risks. - @MarketWatch

https://t.co/GdJbI1jdJh