Radoslav ⭕✨

The future is now.

[Nikita Bier @nikitabier]

Crypto has had a rough year. Maybe we should launch something to fix it.

[Radoslav ⭕✨ @rnaidenov]

@ashrobin Derisking: the gentleman’s rug

[Radoslav ⭕✨ @rnaidenov]

@ashrobin It’s risk off season

[Radoslav ⭕✨ @rnaidenov]

@Scrambller_sol Geoff derisked — now $DERISK derisks back

[Radoslav ⭕✨ @rnaidenov]

@Scrambller_sol https://t.co/SjDdq6kgpW

[Radoslav ⭕✨ @rnaidenov]

@Wisemenmentors @marge_on_github Risk off is the new meta.

[Radoslav ⭕✨ @rnaidenov]

@Wisemenmentors @marge_on_github https://t.co/SjDdq6kgpW

[Dither AI @Dither_Solana]

Alpha4U Bot is the future of web3 socials and trading

It is the only AI platform that can continuously work because it is ALWAYS LEARNING.

Here is how it works and how it can be used...

[0xBrawlie | Dither AI @0xBrawlie]

Becoming a daily occurrence with @Dither_Solana Alpha4U

I’m sick

[Mattness 💀 @0xMattness]

If you're only going to read one message from this thread make it this one.

Alpha4U is the best AI system on Solana

[Dither AI @Dither_Solana]

Over the same period here are all of the signals from Alpha4U which doubled or better (+100% return)

1138.10%
603.37%
497.23%
409.64%
347.29%
341.38%
299.89%
289.34%
218.64%
209.11%
199.89%
197.59%
193.17%
189.43%
179.58%
164.50%
155.56%
142.05%
141.90%
113.56%

[DrMaddy💸 @DrMaddyyy]

I wrote this post last year for you guys, founder is working hard to bring the tools that are much needed in this space to make profits

Now we see the price action is reflecting to his work, 4x in a few days @Dither_Solana

@SallyJack3books made me do this research after his suggestion about the dith ai

[Radoslav ⭕✨ @rnaidenov]

@unclaimed_sol #UnclaimedSOL

[Mattness 💀 @0xMattness]

Go checkout Alpha4U bot. It's a great product. Literally a state of the art recommendation algorithm built for @solana.

[Dither AI @Dither_Solana]

Friday we released a new signal in Seer!

Meet Dither DLMM and how to engage with @MeteoraAG DLMM pools while limiting token exposure with @HyperliquidX or @DriftProtocol

[𝖃𝕭𝕿𝖉𝖔𝖙𝖈𝖔𝖒 @XBTdotcom]

@blknoiz06 @X Remember $DITH? @blknoiz06

[Dither AI @Dither_Solana]

We've been heads down - It's going to be worth it

If you take a step back, what does AI look like applied to trading? Let's look at how we are replacing the human element with AI.

[Dither AI @Dither_Solana]

Macro Environment: April 2025
Balancing Stagflationary Signals Against Policy Flexibility

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I. Growth Cycle Assessment: Industrial Resilience Meets Demand Softening
The U.S. economy exhibits bifurcated signals. While industrial production (1.337, 83rd percentile LTM) and core capital goods orders (1.626, 92nd percentile LTM) reflect residual momentum in manufacturing, leading indicators warn of deterioration. The Philly Fed New Orders Index (-34.2, 0th percentile LTM) has collapsed to its lowest level since 2020, while consumer sentiment (64.7, 0th percentile LTM) remains near recessionary troughs.

The Sahm Rule (0.27, 8th percentile LTM) remains below its 0.5 recession trigger but has risen steadily from 0.00 a year ago. This aligns with a widening output gap: GDP growth (5.04% annualized) sits at the 25th percentile LTM, while retail sales (4.6% YoY, 100th percentile LTM) show inflated nominal growth masking weakening real demand (CPI-adjusted sales growth: 2.2%).

*Key Takeaway*: The economy is in a "soft landing" phase, but leading indicators suggest Q3/Q4 2025 risks skew toward stagnation.

---

II. Inflation & Policy: Disinflation Trend Intact Amid Wage-Price Stickiness
Headline CPI (2.4% YoY, 0th percentile LTM) has normalized to pre-2021 levels, but PPI (1.47% YoY, 83rd percentile LTM) hints at lingering pipeline pressures in energy/utilities. The 5-year breakeven (2.26%) remains anchored near the Fed’s target, while the term premium (0.616, 83rd percentile LTM) reflects heightened bond investor skepticism about long-run stability.

The Fed has cautiously eased, with the FFR (4.33%) down 100bps from 2024 peaks. However, real policy rates (FFR - Core CPI = 1.93%) remain restrictive, creating a policy drag equivalent to ~1.5% of GDP.

*Key Risk*: A "last mile" inflation resurgence from housing (Case-Shiller: 4.12% YoY) or energy (WTI at -$25.75/bbl distortions) could delay cuts.

---

III. Curve & Credit Stress: Recession Signals Flash Amber
The 10Y-3M spread (0.00pp, 17th percentile LTM) remains inverted, while the 30Y-10Y spread (0.46pp, 0th percentile LTM) shows historic flatness – a Markov model assigns 100% stress probability here. Credit markets confirm strain: HY OAS (4.16pp, 100th percentile LTM) and BAA-10Y spreads (1.92pp, 100th percentile LTM) price in default risks last seen during 2022’s Fed tightening cycle.

*Critical Watch*: The Financial Conditions Index (-0.42, 100th percentile LTM) remains restrictive, with small business loan rejection rates at 35% (NY Fed data). A liquidity crunch for lower-rated corporates is imminent.

---

IV. Liquidity & Financial Conditions: Quantitative Tightening Bites
The Fed’s balance sheet runoff (-$9.1tn, 100th percentile LTM) has drained ~15% of pandemic-era liquidity. While M2 growth (3.88% YoY, 100th percentile LTM) has stabilized, its velocity remains depressed at 1.3x (vs. 1.7x pre-COVID). Bank credit growth (4.01% YoY, 100th percentile LTM) masks a bifurcation: C&I loans are contracting (-2.1% YoY), while consumer credit expands at 7.3% YoY.

*Implication*: Monetary policy operates with a lag – full impact of 2023-2024 hikes may hit in H2 2025.

---

V. Labor Market: Cooling Without Collapse
The unemployment rate (4.2%, 100th percentile LTM) has risen 70bps from 2024 lows, while JOLTS quits rate (2.0, 18th percentile 5Y) signals reduced worker confidence. However, initial jobless claims (215k, 25th percentile LTM) remain benign, and aggregate hours worked (41.1, 100th percentile LTM) show employers hoarding labor.

*Divergence*: The Sahm Rule’s sensitivity to 3-month UR moving averages (now 4.07%) suggests recession risk is elevated but not yet materializing.

---

VI. Sentiment & Risk Appetite: Defensive Rotations Dominate
The High-Beta/Low-Vol ratio (0.991, 100th percentile LTM) has cratered as investors flee cyclical sectors. Gold ($3,424.83/oz, 100th percentile LTM) and VIX (29.65, 100th percentile LTM) reflect panic hedging, while the Copper-Gold ratio (97th percentile 5Y) confirms growth fears outweighing inflation concerns.

*Notable Anomaly*: Despite risk-off flows, the S&P 500 (5,282) trades at 21x forward P/E (85th percentile 5Y), suggesting complacency given margin compression risks.

---

VII. Synthesis & Positioning: Navigating the 2025 Inflection
Base Case (60% Probability): Slowdown, Not Recession
Expect GDP growth to decelerate to 1.2-1.8% in H2 2025 as policy lag hits. The Fed cuts 50-75bps, supporting large-cap quality equities but failing to revive credit-sensitive sectors.

Bear Case (30%): Stagflationary Shock
Supply chain disruptions (evidenced by South Korea exports -2.9% YoY) and oil market chaos (WTI contango at $25/bbl) reignite inflation, forcing the Fed to hold rates above 4%.

*Final Note*: The mortgage-10Y spread (2.49pp, 58th percentile LTM) suggests housing affordability will remain a drag – underweight homebuilders despite recent permits uptick.

-----------
The above is an AI generated report on the market. It is experimental and should not be construed as financial advice. Some data points may be experimental or incorrect.

[Dither AI @Dither_Solana]

Forecasting update:

Our autotrader is live testing with automatic perps through @JupiterExchange

There are some execution faults being worked out but it has passed our statistical tests for Sharpe ratio, win rate and returns

[Sip @sip_away_]

Used @Dither_Solana forecasting model before I went to bed last night. Dith called a long at 126, with highs of 132 before retracing. Decided to take the long, but with FOMC today, I set my full TP at 130. Woke up to a nice stimmy