Second edition of @rnsbrief is out.
Link - https://t.co/6EHDWBGRgo
There were a few announcements that made me stop and think last week.
So I dug into them.
1. #TUN - #Tungsten and the west’s supply problem.
2. #GEX - A financing announcement where the fine print was more interesting than the headline.
3. #JLP - the $35m transaction that left me with a few questions.
4. #MCB - Probably the most underrated growth story on LSE last week and barely got any attention.
5. #BZT - A story of how a 7.5 year mine life became a 35 year old story.
No price targets, no marketing. Just my raw thoughts put on paper on why these announcements caught my attention and what I am watching next.
This chart is a good reminder that the mining industry is generating profits on a scale no other sector in the market can even come close to matching.
https://t.co/8dCwbGBa2W
Governments become ‘deal participants’ as critical minerals race accelerates
Governments are moving beyond their traditional role as lenders and becoming direct participants in mining and critical minerals deals, as the push to secure strategic supply chains reshapes how projects are financed.
In February, US President Donald Trump announced the launch of “Project Vault”, a strategic stockpile of critical minerals backed by $12 billion, aiming to protect manufacturers from supply disruptions as the US accelerates efforts to reduce dependence on Chinese metals.
Following the launch, the US administration reported signing or approving dozens of international frameworks and project agreements, adding to a total of roughly 160 minerals-related deals valued near $40 billion since January 2025, according to Fastmarkets.
Rebecca Seidl Inglesby, a Houston- based Baker Botts lawyer, told https://t.co/7GU6pKSDK2 that state involvement is increasingly taking forms once associated primarily with commercial investors, including equity stakes, price floors and long-term offtake agreements.
“The government isn’t just acting as a lender,” Seidl Inglesby said. Governments are increasingly becoming ‘deal participants’ in projects.”
The shift marks a significant change in the financing landscape for miners, particularly those developing critical minerals projects that can struggle to attract conventional capital because of volatile commodity prices, long development timelines and competition from established supply chains.
In the US, Seidl Inglesby said federal support has evolved from largely providing loans and other financial backstops toward a blended model in which public capital can sit directly alongside private investors.
“It’s gone from pure private capital to a blended capital stack of EXIM loans, DFC and DOE support, and direct federal equity sitting alongside private investors,” she said.
“The government isn’t just backstopping these deals anymore. The government is now at the table as a counterparty.”
#ATM@Andrada_Mining Times press coverage - “Speaking by phone from a tungsten mine in Namibia, owned by a London-listed company called Andrada Mining, he said Britain would be better off funding “world-class assets in countries friendly to the UK” and securing supplies from them. “This project in Namibia has the ability to be significantly larger than Hemerdon and much easier to mine and process. It’s also in a country where mining is much easier due to the sparse population,” he said.”
Poland doesn't need its own Silicon Valley. It just found $100 billion under a forest.
11 million tonnes of copper. 1 billion ounces of silver. The largest copper discovery in Europe since the 1950s, near Nowa Sól in western Poland.
Europe needs copper for everything: power grids, EVs, ammunition. Almost all of it comes from Chile and Peru.
Intel cancelled its $4.6B chip plant in Poland and everyone wrote obituaries. Nobody noticed 20x that sitting in the ground two hours away.
Bloomberg calls it the biggest foreign investment in Poland's history. Canadians are building the mine.
LSE is an interesting market. Large cap gets a ton of institutional coverage, small cap gets retail attention and some of the mid caps gets lost in between.
One such story that caught my attention today is Mcbride plc (#MCB).
MCB announced that it is taking over two Vestacy factories in Spain and Portugal for a nominal consideration
Vestacy is also funding £34m of equipments, while #MCB expects to put in around £17m
In return, McBride gets 5-8 year manufacturing agreements, with £170m of annualised revenue from various contracts at maturity.
Sounds almost too good to be true until you look at the underlying story.
In this case, Vestacy is playing the role of a capital partner and #MCB brings the operational excellence to the table and gets years of contracted volume.
Both sides are getting what they want, but McBridge gets to grow without funding the whole expansion themselves.
This is a commendable piece of dealmaking from the management. I will be monitoring how managements executes this partnership successfully.
Progress continues at Hope and Gorob with @BezantResources NLZM plant. New float feed surge tank installed and agitator electricals connected.
#BZT#Namibia#Copper#Gold
Agreed. The verification element is still a black hole. The process is very new and we just have to wait and watch.
Based on the directive, it looks like the domestic sales requirement is quite strict and BIS might be tracking any overseas processed US tungsten scrap. The language on the directive also sounds quite aggresive around non compliance of this rule. So I am guessing, the non compliance could result in harsher consequences.
#EMMERSON#ELM $EML ogłosiło wczoraj ustalone przez ICSID kalendarium arbitrażu z Marokiem. Generalnie uważam, że strony dostały zbyt dużo czasu na wymianę pism i przygotowanie do rozprawy - powinno to być po pół roku, a nie aż dziewięć miesięcy. Spodziewałem się odpowiedzi Maroka jesienią tego roku, a zamiast tego mamy początek przyszłego. Spółka również dostała zbyt dużo czasu na drugie pisemne wystąpienie. Jeśli takie rozciągnięcie w czasie jest wynikiem nacisków Maroka, wówczas Emmerson powinno złożyć drugie stanowisko znacznie szybciej i domagać się proporcjonalnego przyspieszenia terminu ostatniego wystąpienia pisemnego Maroka. Przesłuchań spodziewałem się na przełomie 2027/2028, więc rozczarowujące jest półroczne opóźnienie. Wygląda jednak na to, że tylko opóźnianie pozostało Królestwu Maroka. Trudno, poczekam trochę dłużej. Ostatnie zniżkowanie wycen odzwierciedla zniecierpliwienie inwestorów i tylko to. Case jest nadal dla mnie chyba najmocniejszy na rynku arbitrażowym obecnie, w dodatku nadal atrakcyjnie wyceniony. Rozczarowujące jest natomiast zachowanie kierownictwa, które w żaden sposób nie promuje Spółki. Mam jednak nadzieję, że jest to celowa strategia mająca na celu nieeskalowanie konfliktu, by nie zmniejszyć szans na ewentualną ugodę.
In a major move to secure domestic supplies, the UK will use its National Wealth Fund to spend up to £71 million to restart the Hemerdon tungsten mine.
The British government will secure an ownership stake in the mine and up to 50% of its planned tungsten output.
There is a lot of chatter on X that the US #Tungsten scrap export restrictions that are effective as of 27 Aug could crush US scrap prices and push ex-China tungsten prices even higher.
I don't think the pricing mechanism is that simple. So I decided to read the full government directive.
BIS explicitly says that it will consider allowing US scrap to be processed/refined overseas, provided the processed material comes back to the US.
The application processes is quite straightforward. It can be as simple as an email setting out your case and circumstances, and BIS will get back to you within 14 days.
So the scrap isn't nessessarily stranded in the US for the duration of the restriction.
Will you get a small discount on current pricing? Yes .
Is this doomsday for US tungsten scrap market? Far from it.
To me, the story now looks like the US ring fencing their existing supply rather than taking recycling supply out of the market. This makes sense given the ongoing global Tungsten supply crunch.
This is why today's #BZT update caught my attention.
@BezantResources is accelerating the purchase of NLZM processing plant, with a $5m payment due by the end of October as Hope moves closer to first concentrate.
The fact that caught my attention was the mine life.
In April, Hope had an immediate open-pit mine life of 7.5 years.
Today, Bezant says the initial Hope open pit has a 35 year life, excluding Gorob, Vendome and future extensions.
That's a pretty big change and I couldn't find an announcement explaining what has triggered this change. So, I am curious to see how Bezant gets to that figure in the future announcements.
Great progress at @BezantResources NLZM Plant at Hope and Gorob. Feed belt weightometer installed awaiting calibration and Slurry pumps installed, installing remaining pumps and piping.
#BZT#Namibia#Copper#Gold