Ro₿onaut🇳🇴🟧⛏️

Running Bitcoin,Knots-node,ASIC. Going nuclear. Endorse Elon Musk.
“If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry.”

[Jesse Myers @Croesus_BTC]

STRC down to $82.6 today. Here's my read:

1. Strategy is fine. If everything stays as is, they can pay STRC dividends for 32 years. If BTC appreciates at ~2% CAGR, they can pay dividends indefinitely.

2. Why the sell-off? This appears to be a liquidation cascade.

Over the last 6 months, the narrative became that STRC volatility was reducing, and price began to spend all its time in $99-100 range.

This invites leverage. If you expect the price to always be north of $95, you can take on 20x leverage with your portfolio to buy more STRC and dramatically increase the yield on your portfolio.

This works great, until it doesn't.

STRC is designed as a free-market asset. When attention shifted to SATA and STRC price flagged, it may have raised the attention of opportunistic short-selling hedge funds.

By shorting aggressively, they could push the price down and start triggering margin calls and liquidations from folks who aggressively levered up their STRC positions.

The price action today is a clear liquidation cascade, rapidly pushing prices lower, in turn triggering additional liquidations.

3.
What happens now? The market will heal itself.

Opportunistic hedge funds will recognize that this is a firesale and the fundamentals are unchanged for STRC and step in as buyers. Shorts will close, becoming buyers. Individuals are getting a tremendous entry price for long-term holding STRC shares.

Buyers at this level will get ~13.7% effective yield. If STRC trades back to $100 and they sell, they get an easy +18% return.

4.
What will Strategy do?

Strategy will likely increase the dividend rate on June 30 - maybe to 11.75% but possibly to 12%. Buyers at the current price level then would get 14.2% effective yield from that point forward.

Strategy may also step in to buy STRC shares back. They could do this by issuing new shares of MSTR (currently at 1.14 mNAV) or by taking on traditional debt and deploying those funds to buy discounted STRC shares on the market.

If/when STRC trades back to $100, Strategy could then re-issue those STRC shares. The ~$15 delta per share could be used to buy BTC as pure accretion to MSTR holders, with no net change to amplification.

No doubt that Saylor has already at least considered this, and it wouldn't surprise me if they're currently doing this.

5.
In summary...

The market is freaked out that this depeg is like Terra/Luna... but this is not an asset like that. Strategy's balance sheet determines whether STRC continues to receive dividend payments... and Strategy's balance sheet is completely unchanged.

This is a leverage wipeout.

From this, the market will learn that Digital Credit is mostly very low volatility. But because it is a free market asset, the longer that a Digital Credit instrument trades within a tight range to par... the more leverage will inevitably pile up as people get greedy.

And that creates the conditions for a leverage wipeout depeg. Following that, the instrument will make its way back to par value as the market heals itself and recognizes that the dividend payments will continue uninterrupted because the issuer's balance sheet is unaffected.

[Dume @gietzschean]

>Be Elon
>Get bullied so badly as a kid that you end up in the hospital
>Escape into books
>Read more than 8hrs a day
>Teach yourself programming
>Sell a video game at 12
>Leave South Africa
>Sleep on couches
>Work odd jobs
>Get into America
>Build a startup
>Get fired from your own company
>Start over
>Build another company
>Merge it into PayPal
>Get removed as CEO
>Your company gets acquired
>Walk away with nearly $180 million
>Instead of retiring at 31, put almost all of it into three impossible ideas: Electric cars, Solar energy, Rockets
>People tell you you're insane
>Start a rocket company with no aerospace degree
>Learn rocket science from textbooks
>First rocket fails
>Second rocket fails
>Third rocket fails
>Divorce
>Public humiliation
>Cash running out
>One launch away from bankruptcy
>Launch anyway
>The fourth rocket reaches orbit
>NASA signs a contract
>Survive
>Tesla is weeks from collapse
>Save it at the last minute
>Get mocked for wanting reusable rockets.
>Land one.
>Then another.
>Then dozens.
>Turn science fiction into engineering
>Get mocked for betting on EVs
>Turn electric cars into status symbols
>Force the entire auto industry to follow
>Build the most valuable car company in history
>Launch astronauts into orbit
>Create a global satellite internet network.
>Buy Twitter
>Fire most of the staff
>Rename it X
>Walk into politics
>Risk your reputation
>Risk your companies
>Risk your fortune
>Become one of the most polarising people on Earth.
>Get attacked by the media, politicians, competitors, and activists
>Keep building anyway
>Become a TRILLIONAIRE

[Ro₿onaut🇳🇴🟧⛏️ @rob_bratb]

⚽️Christian Eriksen💚⚽️

[Ro₿onaut🇳🇴🟧⛏️ @rob_bratb]

@SimplyBitcoin @PrestonPysh 🙏

[STRC.live @STRC_live]

$STRC explodes—10.6M shares above threshold for ~7,130 BTC estimated.

Largest single-day haul ever. Volume at 458% of avg, every share crossing threshold. That's more than the entire previous week combined.

Yield at 11.50%.

https://t.co/lVNalzUMK3

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Strategy announces new $21 Billion $STRC ATM Program and new $21 Billion $MSTR ATM Program. https://t.co/65BB3FCup9

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Absolutely incredible:

The US 20Y Note Yield is now above 5.00%.

At the current pace, we will have 7% mortgages and $4.00 gas prices this week.

Talk about a turn of events.

[TFTC @TFTC21]

QatarEnergy just released its damage assessment from the Ras Laffan missile strikes. The numbers are staggering.

17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity is offline. Two liquefaction trains destroyed. $20 billion per year in lost revenue. Repairs will take three to five years. Qatar has declared force majeure on long-term contracts with China, South Korea, Italy, and Belgium.

But the LNG headlines are burying the rest of the damage.

Condensate exports down 24%. LPG down 13%. Helium down 14%. Shell's Pearl GTL plant offline for at least a year. These are not minor product lines. Qatar supplies roughly a third of the world's helium. China imports 90% of its helium from Qatar. Semiconductor fabs and MRI machines just lost a critical input for years.

This is not a temporary disruption. This is a structural reorganization of global energy supply that will take the rest of the decade to resolve. Four countries just lost their LNG contracts. The secondary commodity losses ripple into fertilizers, petrochemicals, chip manufacturing, and healthcare.

The war everyone thought would stay contained just reshaped the global supply chain.

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

BREAKING: Michael Saylor's Strategy is now estimated to have accumulated 4,038 BTC today via STRC 🤯

Nearly double it's previous daily record! 🚀

[Espen Teigen @espenteigen]

Nei, Hamid var ikke «norsk». Du blir ikke norsk av å få et brev i posten. Like lite som jeg hadde blitt kineser av å bo i Kina noen år. Han var i Iran, fordi han var fra Iran.

Kan vi slutte med dette tullet fra mediene?

[Ro₿onaut🇳🇴🟧⛏️ @rob_bratb]

@KoladeOyinbo @AirFranceKLM @KLM using the race-card... LOL

[Ro₿onaut🇳🇴🟧⛏️ @rob_bratb]

farmers protest 😂

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Wise

[S.E. Robinson, Jr. @SERobinsonJr]

STARLINK: Paul Verhagen, EVP & Chief Commercial Officer at SAS - Scandinavian Airlines, posted the above pics stating Starlink will launch soon, with the first units currently in progress.

Per Paul, "Super speed WiFi powered by Starlink. Currently being installed on our first aircraft. Innovation has always been part of our DNA. Stay tuned! Or should I say: Stay online!"

SAS will become the first European airline to operate Airbus A320 family aircraft equipped with Starlink connectivity.

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

This is still accurate, btw.

[Ro₿onaut🇳🇴🟧⛏️ @rob_bratb]

Its retarded to back into a parking spot...

[Greg Brady @gregbradyx]

I never back into a spot. Almost never. There’s people at my gym who do exactly this & need to take 4-5 runs at it. It is MUCH easier to back out of a spot, than it is to back in. Fight about it in the mentions. One question / one follow-up only.

[Ro₿onaut🇳🇴🟧⛏️ @rob_bratb]

Støtter denne. Får min stemme lett.

[Erik Dale 🇳🇴 @EuroDale]

REMIGRASJON – EN 100 % LOVLIG PLAN SOM BETALER SEG SELV

ALT dette kan vedtas med simpelt flertall i Stortinget allerede i 2026-budsjettet eller våren 2027. ALT er allerede gjennomført i Danmark (siden 2015–2019) og delvis i Sverige nå. INGEN konvensjonsbrudd, INGEN EMD-saker som stopper det.

Les HELE tråden – den er lang fordi den må være krystallklar. 🇳🇴

[CJK @CJKonstantinos]

In the year 1900, you could buy a high-end suit for an average price of ~$20.

$20 was also the price of 1oz of Gold.

Today, that $20 can barely buy you a tee shirt.

However, today that same 1oz of Gold can still buy you a high-end suit ($1930).

Three questions to ask & answer to understand this process of storing value through time...

1. What is the difference between Gold & Dollar?

The Gold is MONEY - a store of value - whose SUPPLY CAN NOT be expanded without incurring COST.

The Dollar is a CURRENCY - a medium of exchange - whose SUPPLY CAN BE expanded without COST by congress in a vote or by a bank in extending credit.

2. How did the Gold, unlike the Dollar, store value over time to ensure the holder could maintain the purchasing power of their labor?

The popular answer to this question focuses on the limited supply of Gold and the expanding supply of Dollars.

More Dollars chasing the same amount of Gold means a higher Gold price. This is not wrong; it's correct!

BUT HERE IS A DIFFERENT ANGLE TO THINK ABOUT...

It's called All In Sustaining Cost (AISC).

Think of AISC as producers' FLOOR PRICE.

In other words, if the sale price goes below AISC then producers CAN NOT make a PROFIT.

The free market is signaling to producers that the value proposition of the product or service is NOT valuable enough (creating demand) from the consumer.

This is the entire point of those extra dollars "chasing" a product or service and thus altering price.

Price is the language of demand - the ultimate free market signal of acceptance or denial of a product or service.

When prices are at large premiums to AISC, the market is signaling to producers that the product and or service delivers value to the consumer.

Producers will then allocate resources to this product or service in order to capture profit.

As more producers PROVIDE SUPPLY, PRICES begin to TREND DOWN towards their AISC.

Now, when talking about Gold, the AISC WILL GO UP AS the DOLLARS ARE DEVALUED via inflation (dilution).

So over time as more and more dollars were created, and thus the purchasing power of those dollars was diluted, the AISC of gold slowly increased.

The rising AISC forced producers to raise the price of gold (in order to stay profitable) so consumers had to pay a higher price in order to benefit from Gold's value prop.

Over a hundred years later, a person saving Gold can buy the same amount of stuff BECAUSE as inflation increased the AISC of Gold, the price of Gold was forced to increase to compensate for those increased COSTS.

Costs are always pushed to the consumer. Without profit, no product or service would continue to exist.

3. What's the difference between AISC of Gold versus #Bitcoin ?

The AISC of Bitcoin is not just based on the loss of purchasing power of the dollar based on inflation.

$BTC has an added cost structure element that is found in no other commodity in the world 🤯

THE DIFFICULTY ADJUSTMENT.

As more and more producers compete to generate bitcoin, thus adding hashrate to the network, the difficulty adjustment will INCREASE.

When difficulty increases, producers' AISC increases.

This requires a higher price to be paid by consumers to access the value prop of Bitcoin network, just like those who wanted to own Gold as its AISC was increasing.

So, its not just the dilution of Dollars that increases the fair value of BTC but also the growth of the network itself that increases the AISC for bitcoin miners.

Another benefit of the difficulty adjustment is sustainability. If price goes below AISC and miners are forced to turn off hashrate, difficulty will decrease.

If difficulty decreases, AISC decreases. Thus miners can be more profitable and are incentivized to rejoin the network.

CONCLUSIONS

(1) The devaluation of Currency via inflation can increase prices by creating a new supply/demand balance (more money chasing same items).

(2) The devaluation of Currency via inflation can increase prices by raising producers' AISC. Those costs must be pushed to the consumer for producers to profit.

(3) Without profit, producers will not produce. Supply will drop and prices will increase. Supply will not increase again until prices incentivize producers with profit.

(4) Gold has been a great store of value BUT Bitcoin is the apex predator of storing value, especially via the combination of dollar dilution + difficulty adjustment raising the AISC of BTC