RobinC

[RobinC @robin2018111]

My latest thinking of Why "DIAMANS" Looks Exactly Like 1999's "Networking 7"

https://t.co/DK9pAFMlNH

[RobinC @robin2018111]

@TMobileHelp Yes, it works now. thank you!

[RobinC @robin2018111]

Daily Macro | 3/13/2026
Hormuz isn't just blocked by the IRGC. It's blocked by London actuaries. And today, it got worse.
Day 14 of the US-Israel-Iran war. Here's what the macro model says after today's data dump.

What happened today:

Brent crossed $100 for the first time since August 2022. WTI hit $95, up 10% in a single session. The S&P 500 closed at its lowest print since November. The 10-year yield climbed to 4.26% — up 13bps in two days. And this morning, January core PCE came in at 3.1% YoY — a 22-month high. That's all before the war shows up in inflation data.

The real bombshell: UK Defence Secretary Healey said it's "increasingly evident" Iran is laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's new Supreme Leader Khamenei confirmed in his first public statement — Hormuz stays closed as a "tool of pressure." He also warned of new fronts.

Why mines change everything:

A ceasefire doesn't reopen Hormuz. Minesweeping takes weeks to months. Then insurance actuaries need time to recalibrate models before P&I clubs restore coverage. Then shipowners re-evaluate. Then crews re-sign. The full normalization sequence is 6–18 months — and that assumed no mines. With mines, add more time.

The five major P&I clubs (Gard, Skuld, NorthStandard, London P&I, American Club) all pulled coverage on March 5. A single VLCC sinking in the strait = ~$50B in liability. The entire global war risk premium pool is only a few billion per year. You can't price what you can't model.

Ceasefire ≠ Hormuz ≠ oil normalization ≠ sell gold. Each step is independent and takes time.

What the Fed does next:

Markets are pricing a 99% chance of a hold at the March 17–18 FOMC. Core PCE at 3.1% with oil at $95 means Powell has zero cover to cut. The critical question for the dot plot: does the median Fed official now pencil in a rate hike rather than cuts for 2026? Watch the statement for the phrase "upside risks to inflation."

The number that matters most right now isn't today's PCE.

It's April CPI, released in May — the first print that will fully capture the war's pass-through to consumer prices. With WTI at $90+, that number is tracking toward 4.5–5.5%. If it lands there, Scenario A probability moves to 65%+. That's the moment this becomes undeniable.

[RobinC @robin2018111]

https://t.co/1BL8UBL4MG

[RobinC @robin2018111]

Daily Macro | 3/12/2026
The IEA just announced the largest emergency oil release in history.
400 million barrels. Unanimous. Record-breaking.
Oil prices rose 8% anyway.
Iran's new Supreme Leader gave his first speech today: "The Strait of Hormuz will stay closed."
When the biggest policy tool fails on day one, you're not dealing with a price problem.
You're dealing with a physics problem.