RobyRoboter

All things crypto, stocks, politics, economics. Views are my own.

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

There it is. TACO supreme.

FT:

Gulf foreign ministers plan to meet their Iranian counterpart in a push by Oman and Iran to secure buy-in for a deal temporarily managing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, as regional states seek a pathway to ease hostilities over the waterway.

The gathering, an Omani initiative, would be the first meeting between the top diplomats from the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council and a senior Iranian official since the US and Israel launched the war against the Islamic republic in February.

It is scheduled to be held on Monday in the Omani coastal city of Salalah, according to two people briefed on the matter. One of the people said the details were not finalised, but that a number of states had confirmed and it was expected to go ahead.

[RobyRoboter @RobyRoboter]

@wallstengine And they will all be wrong ... no way Warsh hikes yet. Post midterms, maybe!

[RobyRoboter @RobyRoboter]

@Basssem666 Jumped into calls as well earlier on. I am with you.

[RobyRoboter @RobyRoboter]

@leadlagreport We have your back Mike, no worries.

[RobyRoboter @RobyRoboter]

@leadlagreport The next Trump TACO of a deal with Iran that will never materialize also helps to lower oil prices today. I wished Japan would finally wake up.

[RobyRoboter @RobyRoboter]

@MikeZaccardi @mementovitam For this comparison to be fair, you need to growth-adjust the multiples. You will see, that we are more than stretched already.

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

Tech bubble?

Nasdaq 100 P/E was 86x in May 2001... its 24x today. Merrill

[RobyRoboter @RobyRoboter]

@Basssem666 Yeah ... and how is Paredes still on the pitch??? Incredible!

[Dan Niles @DanielTNiles]

As discussed on @CNBC this morning, I expected a near-term “speed bump” in my Saturday post. Did we hit the edge of it today? Did the $SPCX (down 16% today) $20B bond offering and signing of Reflection AI remind investors there is another hyperscale competitor now that also needs funding? Did investors get spooked that the $MSFT CEO on Sunday in the WSJ was considering diversifying its ecosystem? In later media reports this seemed to include potentially hosting the much cheaper DeepSeek models given the rapidly escalating AI bills for customers. Did Nobel prize winner John Jumper leaving $GOOGL for Anthropic remind investors of the incredible competition and cost to pursue AGI?

Likely in partial reaction to the above, today the 5 big hyperscalers that are spending over $700B in capex this year ( $GOOGL $AMZN $MSFT $ORCL $META ) and are increasingly selling bonds or equity to fund it were down on average 4% bringing their ytd declines to 7% on average.

Meanwhile the Semiconductor Index, whose companies they are spending that money on, was up 2% today bringing the ytd gains to 107%. A near-term test of these gains as I discussed on Saturday will be the reaction to $MU results on Wednesday.

[Qasem Al-Ali @AlaliQasem]

Brent down 17% in May.

The market is pricing in a deal.

But no deal is signed.
Trump hasn’t approved.
Iran said nothing is final.
Hormuz still blocked.

The physical market doesn’t care about hope.

It cares about barrels. 🛢️

Here’s what the data actually says 🧵👇

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🚨Exxon's just said oil inventories will hit "really, really low levels" in 2–3 weeks.

Physical Brent will spike to $150–$160/barrel📈

Neil Chapman, ExxonMobil's Senior Vice President:
"We're approaching unheard of inventory levels. Really, really low levels. Once you get to that point, you'll see price shoot up."

Target: $150–$160/barrel physical Brent.
Current futures Brent price: $94/barrel.

The gap between those 2 numbers is the market still pricing a US-Iran deal🕊️

The supply destruction behind the warning:

→ Iran's Hormuz closure has cost the market more than 1 billion barrels the largest oil supply disruption in history per the IEA

→ IEA members released a record 400 million barrels of strategic reserves in March to cushion the blow

→ 📉Inventories are being depleted at a record pace

→ Stockpiles have absorbed the shock so far but Chapman's message is simple: that can't last

When minimum inventory levels are hit, there is no buffer left.

Price becomes the only mechanism to destroy demand and restore balance. 💰

The futures vs. physical disconnect:

Brent futures at $94 reflect hope.

🔸Hope that the US-Iran framework becomes a signed deal.
🔸Hope that Hormuz reopens.
🔸Hope that Qatari production restarts.

Physical markets don't trade on hope...They trade on barrels available for delivery.

When the inventory buffer runs out the physical price disconnects violently from the futures price.

Oil industry executives have been warning for many months that futures markets are not reflecting the true scale of this disruption.

The buffer is almost gone.

The price hasn't moved yet.

1 of those 2 things has to change...

[RobyRoboter @RobyRoboter]

@Basssem666 shit … that was not a sell-off into the close. damn!

[RobyRoboter @RobyRoboter]

@KobeissiLetter This is so weird. The market has this one completely wrong … there is NO deal.

[RobyRoboter @RobyRoboter]

@KobeissiLetter @TheLongInvest What is the source of this? You said the same b/s on Thursday. Iran doesn’t want to handover its uranium …

[MARMOT @Web3Marmot]

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING VERY BAD IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW!!

S&P 500 keeps hitting new all-time highs.

Right in the middle of the worst energy crisis in decades.

But almost nobody is talking about the real reason.

The market is pretending the crisis is over.

But the Strait of Hormuz is still closed.

Oil is above $100.

Reserves are running on empty.

The IEA reports global oil inventories plummeted by 246M barrels in March-April alone.

While the real economy suffocates, capital hides in AI and chips, naively calling them "safe."

But without energy and logistics, this sector won't last long.

And to make matters worse, the CAPE ratio just breached 41.6.

It has been higher only once in history: December 1999.

Right before the dot-com crash.

The gap between the chart and reality is more dangerous than ever.

It’s nothing but an artificial pump to create exit liquidity for smart money.

I've seen this movie before:

When the index flies during an energy shock, the drop will be vertical.

When supply chain cracks hit earnings, the exit door will be far too narrow.

Remember, I've been tracking these exact macro cycles for 10 years, calling every major turn, including the exact October top before this chaos started.

Turn on notifications. When the market turns, I'll call the exact moves here publicly, like I always do.

[TRIGGER TRADES @TriggerTrades]

Next leg down LOADING.

$SPX rallied and rejected into Daily FVG resistance.

Bearish SMT against $NDX.

Targets → 7320 → 7270.

Hard invalidation at the high.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

ABSOLUTE BLOODBATH 🚨

₹4 trillion has been wiped out from the Indian stock market today after PM Modi's speech.

Sensex and Nifty both more than 1.%.

PM Modi went on national television Sunday night asking citizens to stop buying gold, avoid foreign travel and cut fuel consumption to save foreign exchange "by any means necessary."

A Prime Minister does not say that on national television unless the situation is already serious.

[Qasem Al-Ali @AlaliQasem]

JPMorgan just published the scariest oil chart I’ve ever seen.
World inventories are in freefall.
And when this line hits 6.8 — the global energy system doesn’t slow down.
It breaks. 🧵

[TraderJonesy @TraderJonesy]

Unpopular thesis.

Trump pumping $SPY to 732 and the rest of the market up wasn't reckless. It was insulation.

War with Iran resumes? -3% pullback to 710. Things get ugly? -5% to 695. Operations end? Right back to ATH within weeks.

He built the cushion before he needed it. Whether that was the plan or just luck doesn't matter. The result is the same. There's no version of this that crashes the tape from here.

Strikes could resume this week. Market's at all time highs anyway.

Tell me what level breaks the bull case. $SPX #SP500

[Bassem @Basssem666]

$SPY Hope you all are enjoying your weekend.

We’ll see how futures open tomorrow evening but the plan is simple regardless.

The 5 dma is the key, a close below it on Monday without reclamation on Tuesday is a signal for me to get back in puts.

If the 5 dma gets tested but holds instead, that’s a signal for me to get calls for the move to 728-732.

That’s it. Enjoy your evenings✌️