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Frontier and Emerging Markets Credit

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@EMopportunities Nice trade. Seems like a lot of the hard yards are done, bonds higher if gov stays course on fiscal consolidation and maintain reform momentum.

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@EMopportunities We like the 51s and put a buy on last week. We thought the name had been over sold

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Pak Tbills: hearing a lot of recent positive noise around Pk lcl, and have seen inflows. Potenial for further yield compression on shrt end; but we think more attrac carry opps in egp, turkey... in FX adjusted terms. Fx unattractive. Would exercise bullish view via $ bonds

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@CharlieTTEcon Lots of people like Pakistan local, prayers are with you for the budget (should be fine)

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Ecuador: constructive on 30s, despite the dip last month, amid reports of declining approval rting for Noboa. Downside risks remain: program implementation, political uncertainty, and step up in debt service in '26. Have traded strong this year

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@EMopportunities Lolll very optimistic, were one of the conditions a miracle

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@Markbohlund keen to hear your counter view here

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Gabon SELL- uncertainty around imf prgm, and govs ability to implement sizeable fiscal adjustments ahead of elctions. We think default risk for 25s is underpriced, for defensive investors who still want exposure, buys 31s (lower cash px bond)

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@Markbohlund Also weo showing terrible fiscal

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Mozam - constructive. Has traded sideways this year, and been resilient in the face of the recent sell-off. Positive view based on the expected onset of LNG production, strong commitment to IMF, and improving fiscal and, strong ability to pay relative to reserves (step up in 28)

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@Markbohlund Don’t like it. Worried about the 25s

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Tajik-like it alot still, although risk of distress still high in IMF's DSA, due to elevated payment profile for 25-27. We don't see this as material risk given reserve coverage. Liquidity, and regional geopolitical concerns remain

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HOLD Kenya usd bonds. They trade just 60bps over single b peers post liability mgnt exercise. Improvement in extrl liquidity conditions priced in. Longer term concerns, re: solvency, and elevated debt serv costs. Like LCY bonds.

Covered by Patrick Curran at Tellimer.

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@EMopportunities Did you get any indication there is opportunity for longer term reform momentum, we have our meeting with them later in the week? 25s have traded strong for a while on the view Fx reserves are sufficient to retire them

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Ukr: still like the GDP warrants; see up side to px on growth prospects and increasing incentive to exercise options, recognise risks a given recent rally, and slowing growth prospects. Warrants could be excluded from restructuring

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Ethopi: we downgrade to hold, although acknowledge the possibility of further upside. After recent price appreciation for Ethopi, we prefer to hold performing debt, rather than wait for this now reduced upside to materialise at a indeterminate date

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@EMopportunities I like, there are not many pure optionality plays in the sov space at single digit price. Although you might see 4, before you see 8 though!!

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@em_credit_fund 👏

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EGYPT ON A RIP

33's are up 17.2% cash terms since last wk, and spreads have contracted 250bps
Long end looking similar
From valuation perspective bonds look far less attractive.Egp48s now trade just 110bps wide of Ken48s, and 290bps inside Pak51s

Patrick Downgrades 48s: HOLD