Codeunknown

[Codeunknown @rocketlaunch23]

@alexeheath The optionality of hardware is wasted without high frequency, high value use cases. For gen 1, where weight and appearance are iffy, building private social/skill rehearsal lens is crucial - public speaking, debating, interviewing, sports form. The rest will not drive purchases.

[Codeunknown @rocketlaunch23]

@RandianCapital Steve Jobs was laser focused, assessed new information soberly and pivoted when needed. I’m highly positive on @evanspiegel persistence, but experimentation must meet execution. Specs needs outside investment, long-term hardware superiority and a strategic partner.

[Codeunknown @rocketlaunch23]

@RandianCapital @evanspiegel While a fan of lcos waveguide for now, meta is rapidly advancing silicon carbide, and neither solves the issue occlusion problem. Like the moves to jump-start developers, but ecosystem richness is not enough to overcome hardware trajectory yet. Need outside investment.

[Codeunknown @rocketlaunch23]

@RandianCapital @evanspiegel Fan of specs but some absent elements today - no social rehearsal lens and no outside investment secured, which are crucial for product market fit/rapid product iteration. Use cases must be high frequency. The in-house LCOS waveguide tech is an achievement that is an actual moat.

[Codeunknown @rocketlaunch23]

@BoxLongs Lots of unfortunate negatives today - no social rehearsals or photo quality face projection, no outside investment secured, which were the major things to look for today. The one thing that’s a true positive is the in-house LCOS wave guide tech, that’s a moderate moat.

[Codeunknown @rocketlaunch23]

@BoxLongs @JonahLupton Two keys to specs. 1. The use case is a social rehearsal lens, everything else is marginal. This is the audience and gen 1 hardware fit for a private product with Bitmoji dominance. 2. Get significant outside investment/ license the technology to simulation players. @evanspiegel

[Codeunknown @rocketlaunch23]

@realroseceline @ArneUlland He did not nail it, he fell victim to a narrative. If he understood that path dependent, non-stationary, reflexive regimes create compounding time dependent moats and pricing power, he wouldn’t make this mistake with $ADBE. The future is what makes markets.

[Codeunknown @rocketlaunch23]

@DrewCohenMoney Excellent piece. Extreme narratives and flows oscillate and that’s where the opportunities are the greatest. Cyclical/speculative AI stocks are unlikely to be what truly make people rich here.

[Codeunknown @rocketlaunch23]

@Brian_Stoffel_ This is the wrong ontology. The pricing is fungible over time and the winners reflect a structural domino effect of inference value distributing through the supply chain.

[Codeunknown @rocketlaunch23]

@DrewCohenMoney Nice work Drew. I’ll add that either the Fermi or mature margin approach with too many independent variables will yield a confidence near zero. Often times the human history with decision-making regarding optionality and risk reaction can give you higher signal data.

[Codeunknown @rocketlaunch23]

@BoxLongs You’re not wrong. He’s fine with product. But managerial skill needs to be better in terms of employee count, dealing with partnerships, and communicating with investors.

[Codeunknown @rocketlaunch23]

@BoxLongs WF is wrong. 104% increase (3rd party) in iROAS in 6 months thanks to AI + sponsored Snaps. This will multiply 2-3 fold with data moats; topic chats, sponsored click, and creator sub data. Large and top of funnel spend to follow dramatically, with 75% flow through to bottom like.

[Codeunknown @rocketlaunch23]

@BoxLongs Perplexity deal blowup was handled very very poorly, although the reality is with distribution considerations, perplexity is foolish to think they have any leverage. That said, for $SNAP, don’t hide, don’t mis -manage expectations, and never end the auction for district early.

[Codeunknown @rocketlaunch23]

@realroseceline You’re under-thinking it. Opportunities come from scouring businesses across the business quality and price spaces and finding disconnects based on predictive advantage. Your simplification doesn’t operate as a good funnel.

[Codeunknown @rocketlaunch23]

@RandianCapital Agree completely with this assessment.

[Codeunknown @rocketlaunch23]

@RandianCapital @evanspiegel The irony of you complaining about capital allocation while you allocate your capital in the company is absurd. Burning the 3 billion is not a solution to your angst over capex runways. When the capex converts to a moat, you’ll be kissing his ass.

[Codeunknown @rocketlaunch23]

@RandianCapital @evanspiegel What evidence would expect at this stage? There is appropriate ecosystem seeding for pre-launch demand with developer built experiences including Super Travel, Drum Kit, Pool Assist, Cookmate, and Wisp World.

[Codeunknown @rocketlaunch23]

@BoxLongs This is good news, and will further cut the excess.