yaw

📱 @swapamonline 🔄

[yaw @rofyray]

the bottom line: GYAN reads the field well, the fine seeding less well, and the honest hedging paid off.

full scorecard, group by group, with the R32 breakdown and Ghana revisit:
https://t.co/JYssG3ims7

knockouts next!!!

[yaw @rofyray]

the World Cup group stage is done.

72 games played. so how did GYAN, my four-expert model, actually do against its own published bracket?

i marked the homework. honestly. 🧵🇬🇭

[yaw @rofyray]

one that made me laugh.

the first R32 game is now played, and GYAN had 🇨🇦 Canada advancing.

right result, wrong opponent: the model drew Canada vs 🇰🇷 South Korea, but Canada actually faced 🇿🇦 South Africa.

at least GYAN knew it'd be a country with "South" in it.😅

[yaw @rofyray]

that's the full GYAN bracket.

DISCLAIMER: for education and entertainment only, definitely not betting advice.

[yaw @rofyray]

i spent some time studying what makes a World Cup forecast actually land.

then i built my own.

meet GYAN: Goal-model, Yield-weighted Aggregation, simulatioN, a four-expert model named after Asamoah Gyan, run 100,000 times across the 48-team tournament. full bracket🧵🇬🇭

[yaw @rofyray]

and the Black Stars?

🇬🇭 Ghana land in a brutal Group L with England and Croatia, projected 4th at a 0.4% title price.

but across the sims they reach the knockouts far more often than that suggests.

tough group, not a closed one.