AlphaRoger

[AlphaRoger @roger78471]

@wsfoxley @FransBakker9812 Shame on u

[AlphaRoger @roger78471]

@planA_thru_Z @BitcoinAIGuy Yes please

[AlphaRoger @roger78471]

@BitcoinAIGuy @jrouldz WEN 50

[AlphaRoger @roger78471]

@BitcoinAIGuy @blockspace @jiahanjimliu now

[AlphaRoger @roger78471]

@FransBakker9812 I think the ARR hasn’t been announced simply because the contracts are still being negotiated. Based on Dan’s comments today, he clearly doesn’t believe that a few percentage points’ difference in financing rates would be a decisive factor.

[Frans Bakker @FransBakker9812]

Well ok then, I'll bite.
@SemiAnalysis_ is once again full of crap.

"And here’s the truth for you: onepicture, >24GW of datacenters in advanced stage of construction, all to be delivered in 2027."

No your "platform" does not have accurate tracking, nor does it have a right interpretation of such.

E.G. Crusoe - Texas.
According to SemiAnalsysis, 1GW of the Childress "Hyper" Campus for $META, will be delivered in 2027.

What does the more accurate tracking show us?
Pic 1. Satellite image from 10/18, yes, that was yesterday.
Pic 2. Aerial image from 10/9, 1.5 weeks ago.
Clearly this is in very early stages of construction, they have 6 transformers in their bulk substation, but there is hardly any step-down infrastructure in place.

Lookign at the actual building foundations, this is absolutely not a 2027 story.

But why would you trust me? My last name isn't Patel, I'm no famous headphones wearing AI quant?

Maybe listen to the actual company itself?

Crusoe has 3 TDLR filings for Project Hyper, 3 separate buildings, which 3 separate completion date. February, April, and May of 2028.

I added building 1 as the 3rd image, to make it clear this will not be a 2027 deployment.

So, a picture with many data centers may look very impressive, but SemiAnalysis uses free satellite imagery for its paid subscribers, to then mislead them with wrong intel that could be sourched for absolutely free with ChatGPT.

STOP PAYING MONEY TO THESE CROOKS, THEY ARE NOT RESEARCHERS, THEY FILL THEIR POCKETS WITH YOUR MONEY TO BUY NEW HEADSETS FOR EVERY NEXT INTERVIEW, STOP GETTING FLEECED BY THESE BASEMENT DWELLERS AND CANCEL YOUR SUBSCRIPTION TODAY.

[Daniel Roberts @danroberts0101]

A lot of questions this week on funding, so here's how a GPU typically gets funded at $IREN.

First, the customer signs a multi-year take-or-pay contract and agrees to a prepayment. On our recent 3-year contracts, prepayments have been 45% to 55% of the associated GPU capex.

Second, financing is committed, secured by the contracted GPUs. On the Microsoft contract we secured an A-rated facility at around 6%, which together with prepayments covers 96% of GPU capex. More recently, for a non-investment grade counterparty at Mackenzie, we secured financing at 9% fixed, which together with prepayments covers more than the full cost of the GPUs.

That's the GPU side. The data centers are a separate, long-term asset base, and we own the ones our GPUs run in. Construction has been funded from cash to date, with no debt against these multi-billion dollar assets. As they come online with contracted customers, they can support financing in their own right.

The processes behind the next facilities are continuing, and new paper will cost what the market charges. With GPU paybacks of around two years on our recent 3-year contracts, a wider spread barely moves the economics.

There's more customer demand than we can build for. As we noted at our recent earnings, 2026 is largely sold out, recent 3-year contracts are at more than double the prior year's pricing, and demand for anything we can bring online in 2027 covers it several times over, with prepayments a focus in every negotiation. Conversations on 2028 capacity are already underway.

Meanwhile announced capacity keeps slipping across the industry, which is the point: signing deals isn't the bottleneck in this market, bringing GPUs online is, and that's our focus.

[AlphaRoger @roger78471]

@bitcoinbutcher1 LFG

[AlphaRoger @roger78471]

@FransBakker9812 Frans, I sincerely appreciate everything you do. Honestly, if it weren’t for your insights and the information you share, I probably have sold my shares a long time ago

I currently hold 8,600 shares, and my goal is to reach 10,000 shares before 2027 and continue holding.

[AlphaRoger @roger78471]

@FransBakker9812 100%

[AlphaRoger @roger78471]

@glocalinvestor SemiAnalysis also posted the same information that had already been circulating a month ago lol.

[AlphaRoger @roger78471]

@convequity It wasn’t included in the $4B ARR. The AI company IREN announced when it raised its ARR target to $4B was Prometheus, while Anthropic was announced in the August earnings report.

You can also figure this out with simple math: $20 million, even 50 MW would generate $1B in ARR.

[AlphaRoger @roger78471]

@arthritisfinger @wallstreetbets weeks

[maxmum @maximum00002]

@TheBigDegen @SemiAnalysis_

[AlphaRoger @roger78471]

@FransBakker9812 No trust me bro, but I trust Frans

[AlphaRoger @roger78471]

@FransBakker9812 @Official_Cantor @jonestrading sorry, who's Jonestrading? Never heard

[AlphaRoger @roger78471]

@FransBakker9812 Well done

[AlphaRoger @roger78471]

@AvivArazi Jannik Sinner & Carlos Alcaraz

[Frans Bakker @FransBakker9812]

Wake up America!

This is Julie Waters.

An actual lawyer with a degree at the Texas Bar.

This woman is hired by the anti Data Center machine to sway the minds of the working people to believe in the AI boogeyman.

Julie is very sad, as you can clearly see in the picture. Nothing suggests that this was acting, so without further evidence, she will be declared sad until proven secretly happy.

And she's not sad because she's poor, oh no, she's actually doing very well for herself, which is remarkable giving her last name, in this day and age.

But let's not focus on her fortune for now.

Yes sir, Julie Waters is here to tell you how bad the situation is in Texas, and it's all the fault of the Data Centers!

Did you not know that Data Centers are responsible for global warming, drought, covid, and basically the only reason for inequality in the world?

AI won't even have to kill you if you live in Texas, because according to Julie Waters you will already be dead well before that from boiling your water every day to take a shower.

Be empathetic please, this is a very serious situation.

$IREN and @Lancium are in Childress to steal your water, and apparently not to help America dominate China and the CCP in the global race to ASI.

Well you know what?
I say we expose this CCP pion, and make sure that Texas stays open for business, and this psyop about data centers ends here.

We need representing at the bottom of the barrel, give her your all, link below 👇

[Daniel Roberts @danroberts0101]

A few people asked over the weekend what the calls to slow the pace of frontier AI mean for the buildout. Some thoughts:

Even if models never improved from here, just rolling out what they can already do would take more compute than the world can build for years. The debate about how fast AI should be allowed to improve is a fair one to have. It's about future generations of models.

Existing demand is the part I think people are misreading. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said in May they'd planned for 10x growth and were running at an 80x pace in the first quarter, and that's why they've had trouble supplying compute. OpenAI president Greg Brockman said in July they'll be in a compute shortage no matter what, and are choosing which products to scale. Google says it's processing 7x the tokens it did a year ago. Hundreds of millions of people use these models today, and most of them use a small part of what the models can already do. And every time more compute comes online, usage steps up again: limits come off for people already using it, customers who were turned away get on, and new use cases show up that weren't in anyone's plan.

Now supply. The constraint is HBM, the memory that sits inside every major AI chip. Three companies make it and all three are sold out this year. A new memory plant takes years to build. TrendForce has HBM shipments growing 50-60% next year. NVIDIA, the biggest buyer of it, expects its revenue to grow about 70% next year and calls that outlook 'supply-constrained', noting its customers' forecasts point closer to 100%. On our own bottom-up work, the memory constraint lands in about the same place as NVIDIA's growth number.

Then the chips need a building with power connected, which takes longer again. Goldmans reckons only about half the US capacity scheduled over the next two years will actually be built on time.

The risk to demand continues to seem heavily weighted to the upside. The risk to supply continues to seem weighted toward less capacity getting built, not more.