Rohan Jain

[Rohan Jain @rohan1666]

Pakistan is a proxy of many, notably of USA. It's also a weak state with weak actors. Sensitive hi-tech weapon given, can easily slip to anyone.
Giving deep offensive weapons to Pak is like handing your own child a real gun.
Big weapons cost big money.
China has bigger priorities

[Rohan Jain @rohan1666]

A common fear is that China will use Pakistan as proxy, 2-front war, वगैरा-2.
🇨🇳 will surely help defend 🇵🇰, to protect its own economic interests there, if nothing else. पर इससे ज्यादा नही.
5 reasons:
🇨🇳 is a rational state & has similar geopolitical nature as 🇮🇳. नहीं सहमत?
2-

[Rohan Jain @rohan1666]

High budget deficits cause inflation. Inflation causes high interest rate, fall in Forex rate & low rate of growth.
Make in India causes inflation directly by increasing deficits & indirectly by weakening industry.
Inflation is a tax on poor & the real opposition for ruling party

[Rohan Jain @rohan1666]

Animal spirits & consumer demand, are good to have; but a fantasy without the capital needed to build supply. Capital comes from people's savings, real value adding profitable business & FDI.
Make in India protects weeds & destroys good capital; unlike Shiv's creative destruction

[Rohan Jain @rohan1666]

@makeinindia
-Direct/indirect/hidden cash subsidy to sponsored businesses.
-Squeezing (tax) success to fund uncompetitive/uneconomic ventures.
-Trade & investment barriers impose costlier & inferior goods on people; reducing their purchasing power, savings & new capital formation

[Rohan Jain @rohan1666]

How @makeinindia makes less:
-Shifts industry & capital from areas of competitive strength, into Govt chosen sectors.
-From capital forming & self expanding business to capital consuming one.
-Total capital in a nation is finite.
-NO NEW CAPITAL FORMATION➔NO INDUSTRIAL EXPANSION

[Rohan Jain @rohan1666]

MAGA hostages held: Uncle T & Party, just to name a few. MAGA overlord (🇮🇱) turned into a MAGA liability.
MOU was a small and fair price. Postponed by Party in panic? What if, Party still suffered a generational defeat? Will it seek a replacement? Can it? As easily as British do?

[Rohan Jain @rohan1666]

If a middle power can easily strike warship of a superpower, then era of gunboat diplomacy may be over.
It'd be useful for near shore defense, not as offensive tool at distant shores.
It's as if Hitler was stopped in Poland & didn't go on to invade 🇨🇺, 🇬🇱, 🇨🇦,
And Nobel goes to..

[Rohan Jain @rohan1666]

Relative decline in living standard & national power@Make in 🇮🇳:
B'desh is t latest Asian nation to jump ahead in per capita income.
Vietnam from slightly ahead in 2014 to double.
Only 5 politically unstable nations are now behind 🇮🇳.
Gap with 🇨🇳 is now so wide.
US bullies easily

[Rohan Jain @rohan1666]

-Lot of public funds are sinking into Make in India. पैसे पेड़ो पर नही उगते. So less goes into Govt's functioning. Governance is t single most important factor that determines re-election.
-But, India made less & less after 2014, as % of GDP, as Make in India spread its tentacles

[Rohan Jain @rohan1666]

Make in India's impact on आम आदमी-
Stagnant/falling real wages of most Indians since 2018. Rx-Bread & Circus for 80 Crore.
Too many NEET (Not in Education/Employment/Training) & underemployed youth.
Reverse migration into farming-विकसित भारत उल्टी दिशा में
https://t.co/mLdUfcOjDs

[Rohan Jain @rohan1666]

Nominal quarterly GDP=88 lakh Crore=$918 billion or $3.7 trillion annualized and $2623 per capita.
GDP of $1.87T in 2014 grows to $3.7T in 2026 @ 5.8%.
Factoring in 29% purchasing power loss of $ since 2014, real GDP growth rate in last 12 years is 2.8% versus 3.5% during 1950-80

[Rohan Jain @rohan1666]

मुकेश भाई, हमारी बहुत इच्छा है कि भारत में भी ये चीज बने.
पर मोदी जी, इसमे चीनियों की लागत हमसे आधी है.
हम १००% ड्यूटी लगा देंगे.
पर..
पर-वर कुछ नहीं. जमीन का प्रबंध हो जायेगा. सब्सिडी भी मिल जायेगी.
और सरकारी लोन?
सब हो जायेगा. आप घोषणा करिये. चुनाव नजदीक है.
जी प्रधानमंत्री जी.

[Rohan Jain @rohan1666]

India's GDP has now fallen behind UK, after overtaking it in 2022. This is after apparently growing 3 times faster than UK since 2022.
Socialist era was bad but better than preceding colonial era.
Will today's aspirational voter let Govt's takeover of business & economy yet again

[Rohan Jain @rohan1666]

My cheap durable high milage Lithium EV. No going back to oil for local usage.
Without the right price, Make in India is an imposition. Impositions backfire and backfiring.
Let the demand develop, investment flow freely and not obstruct competition.
Made in India, Made by Anyone.

[Rohan Jain @rohan1666]

India is often perceived as a blocker in BRICKS. 2 themes drive blocking:
इसमें जरूर चीन का फायदा है. भाई खुद का फायदा भी देख ले!
अमरीका क्या कहेगा!👎
A common currency & payment system? Better to be founder than follower. मिल कर करें या चीन अकेला कर लेगा.
https://t.co/6PQf6x6I9h

[Rohan Jain @rohan1666]

In China, EV can now charge in 6 minutes & run 1500 km. Sodium battery is coming without Lithium/Cobalt.
India cut off from USA during 1950-80s, the premier manufacturing power of that era.
REAPETING THE SAME MISTAKE AGAIN?
GOI puts sanctions on India?
ना करेंगे, ना करने देंगे?

[Rohan Jain @rohan1666]

Electric 3-wheeler are now 2/3rd of total in my town & E-scooter increased from none to 1/3rd in just 2 years. 2-3 wheeler make up over 80% of vehicles on road here.
Don't need a device/AQI to see falling pollution.
But, most above run on bulky/low mileage/makeshift lead battery.

[Rohan Jain @rohan1666]

Drop a few tacticals/Fat man. Iran'd come begging. May be not. It smokes GCC & 20% of oil. No Oil No Cry! Hormuz opens! USA wins!
Russia cleared to nuke 🇺🇦/NATO.
China clears Pacific.
Uncle T sells Nukes on Dark Web.
A big boy vaporizes Israel.
WW3 begins.
https://t.co/koHoV8Rk4y

[Rohan Jain @rohan1666]

Energy market eventually calls out-The uncle who cried wolf. Something somewhere snaps. He might as well do a Full Monty then. But it drops like a stone. Along with goes the bonds, currency, crypto..
Combined legacy of Hover/Eden/Nixon/Carter, is trumped..
https://t.co/MGX4b8ecGQ