Roman

Dev/Economist/Quant - Prev. @CeloOrg, co-founder @MentoLabs

[Justin Drake @drakefjustin]

Today is a monumentous day for quantum computing and cryptography. Two breakthrough papers just landed (links in next tweet). Both papers improve Shor's algorithm, infamous for cracking RSA and elliptic curve cryptography. The two results compound, optimising separate layers of the quantum stack. The results are shocking. I expect a narrative shift and a further R&D boost toward post-quantum cryptography.

The first paper is by Google Quantum AI. They tackle the (logical) Shor algorithm, tailoring it to crack Bitcoin and Ethereum signatures. The algorithm runs on ~1K logical qubits for the 256-bit elliptic curve secp256k1. Due to the low circuit depth, a fast superconducting computer would recover private keys in minutes. I'm grateful to have joined as a late paper co-author, in large part for the chance to interact with experts and the alpha gleaned from internal discussions.

The second paper is by a stealthy startup called Oratomic, with ex-Google and prominent Caltech faculty. Their starting point is Google's improvements to the logical quantum circuit. They then apply improvements at the physical layer, with tricks specific to neutral atom quantum computers. The result estimates that 26,000 atomic qubits are sufficient to break 256-bit elliptic curve signatures. This would be roughly a 40x improvement in physical qubit count over previous state-of-the-art. On the flip side, a single Shor run would take ~10 days due to the relatively slow speed of neutral atoms.

Below are my key takeaways. As a disclaimer, I am not a quantum expert. Time is needed for the results to be properly vetted. Based on my interactions with the team, I have faith the Google Quantum AI results are conservative. The Oratomic paper is much harder for me to assess, especially because of the use of more exotic qLDPC codes. I will take it with a grain of salt until the dust settles.

→ q-day: My confidence in q-day by 2032 has shot up significantly. IMO there's at least a 10% chance that by 2032 a quantum computer recovers a secp256k1 ECDSA private key from an exposed public key. While a cryptographically-relevant quantum computer (CRQC) before 2030 still feels unlikely, now is undoubtedly the time to start preparing.
→ censorship: The Google paper uses a zero-knowledge (ZK) proof to demonstrate the algorithm's existence without leaking actual optimisations. From now on, assume state-of-the-art algorithms will be censored. There may be self-censorship for moral or commercial reasons, or because of government pressure. A blackout in academic publications would be a tell-tale sign.
→ cracking time: A superconducting quantum computer, the type Google is building, could crack keys in minutes. This is because the optimised quantum circuit is just 100M Toffoli gates, which is surprisingly shallow. (Toffoli gates are hard because they require production of so-called "magic states".) Toffoli gates would consume ~10 microseconds on a superconducting platform, totalling ~1,000 sec of Shor runtime.
→ latency optimisations: Two latency optimisations bring key cracking time to single-digit minutes. The first parallelises computation across quantum devices. The second involves feeding the pubkey to the quantum computer mid-flight, after a generic setup phase.
→ fast- and slow-clock: At first approximation there are two families of quantum computers. The fast-clock flavour, which includes superconducting and photonic architectures, runs at roughly 100 kHz. The slow-clock flavour, which includes trapped ion and neutral atom architectures, runs roughly 1,000x slower (~100 Hz, or ~1 week to crack a single key).
→ qubit count: The size-optimised variant of the algorithm runs on 1,200 logical qubits. On a superconducting computer with surface code error correction that's roughly 500K physical qubits, a 400:1 physical-to-logical ratio. The surface code is conservative, assuming only four-way nearest-neighbour grid connectivity. It was demonstrated last year by Google on a real quantum computer.
→ future gains: Low-hanging fruit is still being picked, with at least one of the Google optimisations resulting from a surprisingly simple observation. Interestingly, AI was not (yet!) tasked to find optimisations. This was also the first time authors such as Craig Gidney attacked elliptic curves (as opposed to RSA). Shor logical qubit count could plausibly go under 1K soonish.
→ error correction: The physical-to-logical ratio for superconducting computers could go under 100:1. For superconducting computers that would be mean ~100K physical qubits for a CRQC, two orders of magnitude away from state of the art. Neutral atoms quantum computers are amenable to error correcting codes other than the surface code. While much slower to run, they can bring down the physical to logical qubit ratio closer to 10:1.
→ Bitcoin PoW: Commercially-viable Bitcoin PoW via Grover's algorithm is not happening any time soon. We're talking decades, possibly centuries away. This observation should help focus the discussion on ECDSA and Schnorr. (Side note: as unofficial Bitcoin security researcher, I still believe Bitcoin PoW is cooked due to the dwindling security budget.)
→ team quality: The folks at Google Quantum AI are the real deal. Craig Gidney (@CraigGidney) is arguably the world's top quantum circuit optimisooor. Just last year he squeezed 10x out of Shor for RSA, bringing the physical qubit count down from 10M to 1M. Special thanks to the Google team for patiently answering all my newb questions with detailed, fact-based answers. I was expecting some hype, but found none.

[Mento (fx/acc) @MentoLabs]

Our co-founder @boqdan_ will be joining a fireside chat with @AlexLWitt on onchain FX as part of this stream, showcasing @Celo's @Ethereum journey joined by @VitalikButerin, @jorgenarnesen & more!

⏰ Tune in at 8:45am PST I 5:45pm CET

[bogdan 🔅 @boqdan_]

80% done on an explorer for the tiered memory system in Solum, my Elixir-based @openclaw killer™️

The context is just a frame. I've been running this system for a couple of days. It is no longer stuck in the user->agent message loop, and through context engineering, it treats context as a frame, with inference producing actions. An action can be: message another agent or the human, or use tools. And what triggers inference is sensory data: subscriptions to state changes outside of itself, or email/chat notifications. It no longer feels like before. It's what I thought OpenClaw would be, truly autonomous. But autonomy needs a primer. It needs a context that removes this pure assistant, user-to-agent comms. Also, async tool-calling is the way, once you see that you can't go back. I'm wondering what sort of beast people at @AnthropicAI or @OpenAI are running, because what I've seen my setup do has really impressed me.

Follow this space, will open-source in a few days at this rate.

[Mento (fx/acc) @MentoLabs]

gmonad! To celebrate today's news, we cooked up a mini game.

Welcome to FX Runner @Monad Edition

Your score only counts once you swap. ↓

[Mento (fx/acc) @MentoLabs]

Mento is bringing institutional-grade FX infrastructure to the @monad ecosystem!

[Mark Richardson @MBRichardson87]

I published a blog post on why I’m supporting the TE Research Symposium (#TERSE) with @tokengineering, and @EthCC 2026 in Cannes.

https://t.co/vTL91HP3O0

[Bancor @Bancor]

Bancor is proud to collaborate with @tokengineering Academy and @EthCC on the TE Research Symposium (TERSE) at EthCC[9] 2026 in Cannes.

TERSE provides a technical commons to benefit builders, reviewers, and users alike, helping translate research into deployed systems with fewer misunderstandings – designed to strengthen how our industry communicates technical work in public: clear problem statements, explicit assumptions, defensible methods, results, and limitations, presented without promotional intent.

Project Lead, Dr. @MBRichardson87 has published a blog post outlining the rationale and submission expectations: https://t.co/OpQYNvnY3p

Submissions are now open. Deadline: 20 February 2026.

[MiniPay @minipay]

Hi Tunde, this is already possible in MiniPay thanks to the Drag & Swap feature powered by @MentoLabs! You can can simply drag one pocket into another to combine 🙂

[fig @ecdsafu]

Squid will support Celo whatever they choose to do, but interestingly in terms of bridging UX and capital efficiency, their L1 is much better than an L2

[Mento (fx/acc) @MentoLabs]

Mento Labs has a new head of product 🔍

Please join us in welcoming @denneykwok to the Mento Labs team.

The Mento Labs team is building for the future of decentralized local currency stablecoins, and we are very excited for Denney to be on board!

[Mento (fx/acc) @MentoLabs]

Celebrating the Mento Labs birthday 🎂

Today Mento Labs has marked its 2nd Anniversary!

The team has been working around the clock since day 1 - building the future of local currency stablecoins to create a more connected, inclusive financial future for all.

Thanks to our partners and the Mento community for their support and hard work building with us. 🩵

[MarkusMento ◘ fx/acc @MarkusMento]

Full house at #BinanceBlockchainWeek

[MarkusMento ◘ fx/acc @MarkusMento]

📢 Mento Community Update
#GMento to the @MentoLabs Community! Catch up on the latest updates this week. A thread 🧵:

[MiniPay @minipay]

1/📱 You asked, we listened! Your favourite stablecoin wallet is now available as a standalone app on Android.

Same great features, now outside of the browser, and available for download in 60+ countries.

Send, save, swap, and spend those stables on the go!

Download here to try it out: https://t.co/gXeZogFWQm

[MarkusMento ◘ fx/acc @MarkusMento]

Check out this amazing video on how to use $cUSD for anything
🩵 @minipay 🩵@MentoLabs 🩵@nikodcg

[Mento (fx/acc) @MentoLabs]

New milestone unlocked! 🎉

Nearly 850k unique addresses actively transacting Mento's decentralized stablecoins.

And on average at zero fees.
That's true financial inclusion.

Mento keeps building.

[Mento (fx/acc) @MentoLabs]

Mento Labs has a brand new look 👀

Discover Mento Labs, the development team behind the Mento Platform.

Mento's new website is live, click the link below👇

[Schmonzy @Schmonzy]

I💙this initiative and will follow @MentoLabs ' lead by matching every retweet of this tweet with a 20 $cKES donation, up to 10,000 cKES paid to @CodeYetu
Use @pretium_app in MiniPay to donate & support kids learning code in Kenya today!

[Mento (fx/acc) @MentoLabs]

We 💚💙💛 this initiative and will follow @minipay's lead by matching every retweet of this tweet with a 1 cUSD donation, up to $500 paid to @CodeYetu. Use @pretium_app in MiniPay to donate & support kids learning code in Kenya today!
0x80b9df6323b7E30cB62862fb423d4F2c5b7cF4FD

[MiniPay @minipay]

We love a good cause. We're excited to support @CodeYetu to help empower the next generation of coders in Kenya!

We will match every retweet of this tweet with a 1 dollar donation, up to $500 paid to the cause. Does Code Yetu have a MiniPay wallet? @GigaHierz 👀
#PaywithMinipay