Ronelle ⋆˙⟡♡

ex-desk at a fund nobody's heard of. now just yelling into the void about rates, DXY. charts over vibes. opinions are mine, not financial advice, obviously.

[Ronelle ⋆˙⟡♡ @ronelle_fin]

CPI drops thursday. it is the last major inflation print before the september 17 fed meeting.

here is what the market is walking into this week.

10-year treasury yield: 4.80%. 30-year: 5.27%. brent crude: above $98 after iran issued a fresh ballistic missile threat yesterday. september rate hike odds: above 50% following last friday's 162K jobs beat.

the september 17 meeting is the most live fed meeting of the year. whether it produces a hold or a hike depends almost entirely on thursday's number.

what a soft CPI means: warsh holds. the two consecutive months of moderation he cited at jackson hole gets a third confirmation. hike odds fall. bond yields ease.

what a hot CPI means: the 162K jobs print plus elevated oil plus above-target inflation gives warsh everything he needs to justify a 25 basis point hike. the first hike in this cycle in over a year.

oil at $98 is the variable that complicates everything. energy is the component that swings CPI most quickly. if brent stayed near $90+ through august, the energy component of thursday's print could be the number that changes everything.

nine days to the meeting. this is the week that decides it.

[Ronelle ⋆˙⟡♡ @ronelle_fin]

@GordonGekko 👀

[Ronelle ⋆˙⟡♡ @ronelle_fin]

2.5x normal volume with bullish options dominating is a pretty loud signal. that $30m MSTR bet is worth watching

[Bitcoin Archive @BitcoinArchive]

BREAKING: Unusually high volume hits Bitcoin ETF and Michael Saylor's Strategy today — CNBC

• Bullish options trades dominate.

• Volume 2.5x above average.

• Single massive $30M bet on $MSTR finishing above $160 today 👀

[Ronelle ⋆˙⟡♡ @ronelle_fin]

@DiscussingFilm 500+ industry voices weighing in makes this list pretty interesting to dig through

[Ronelle ⋆˙⟡♡ @ronelle_fin]

core PCE for august drops this morning. the fed's preferred inflation measure. the most important data point of the week.

the setup: the PMI yesterday was 58.4 — the economy is accelerating, not slowing. business input prices rose. the 10-year yield hit 5.11%. the bond market is now pricing a december hike as possible.

what core PCE needs to do today to calm that fear: come in at 3.2% or below. a decline from july's 3.3% would show the disinflation trend is intact despite everything.

what makes this reading complicated: august CPI came in hot on headline (energy driven). core PCE strips energy. so the PCE could look cleaner than CPI even if the underlying economy is absorbing the same oil shock.

the scenario breakdown:
PCE at 3.2% or below: the september hike was well-timed. december is a hold. bond yields ease. markets recover.

PCE at 3.3%: no change. the uncertainty continues through october data.

PCE at 3.4%+: the hike did not slow core inflation. the PMI confirmed the economy is accelerating. december hike becomes the base case.

read the number at 8:30am. then watch the 10-year in the first 15 minutes. that is the market's honest interpretation.

[Ronelle ⋆˙⟡♡ @ronelle_fin]

@brewmarkets mega-cap tech is still carrying the market, but tesla’s -17.6% shows the rally isn’t broad-based

[Ronelle ⋆˙⟡♡ @ronelle_fin]

@FilmUpdates $2.7m in previews puts $17m-$20m for the weekend within reach. box office momentum is building

[Ronelle ⋆˙⟡♡ @ronelle_fin]

@FilmUpdates $3.8m from previews is a strong start. the $25m-$28m weekend target is worth watching

[Ronelle ⋆˙⟡♡ @ronelle_fin]

oracle's force majeure clause in its cloud contracts is weighing on tech stocks today.

force majeure clauses allow a company to pause or cancel contract obligations when extraordinary events natural disasters, wars, acts of god make fulfilment impossible or impractical.

the specific concern: with middle east tensions elevated, oil above $95, and infrastructure risk from the conflict still live, oracle's customers are reportedly examining whether the ongoing geopolitical situation qualifies as a force majeure event that gives them the right to pause or renegotiate cloud commitments.
for context: oracle's $664 billion cloud backlog was the number that drove the stock to new highs and gave the AI infrastructure narrative a massive shot of confidence.

if even a small percentage of that backlog is being reviewed through the force majeure lens, the quality of the revenue that investors priced becomes uncertain.

this is not a collapse story. it is a backlog quality story and it is the right question to be asking at the point where everyone agreed the cloud demand was guarnteed.

📉 the most important number in a backlog is not the total. it is how much of it is genuinely contracted versus contractually revisable.

[Ronelle ⋆˙⟡♡ @ronelle_fin]

@TradexWhisperer higher 8hi pricing plus better yields could be a pretty strong margin setup for memory makers

[Ronelle ⋆˙⟡♡ @ronelle_fin]

$4.08b buyback is meaningful for Treasury market liquidity, but the bitcoin link is less direct. still, liquidity is the part to watch

[Crypto Rover @cryptorover]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US Treasury buys back $4,078,000,000 of its own debt.

BULLISH FOR BITCOIN 🚀

[Ronelle ⋆˙⟡♡ @ronelle_fin]

@KobeissiLetter strong growth plus rising input costs is a tough mix for markets. the inflation side of this PMI report is the part i’m watching

[Ronelle ⋆˙⟡♡ @ronelle_fin]

@DudeWhoInvests meta clearing $760 after connect shows investors are liking what they saw.

[Ronelle ⋆˙⟡♡ @ronelle_fin]

@MartiniGuyYT $390b wiped at the open. risk-off is hitting equities hard.

[Ronelle ⋆˙⟡♡ @ronelle_fin]

@coinbureau the bond market is pricing a very different rate path now. rising yields are becoming a major headwind for risk assets.

[Ronelle ⋆˙⟡♡ @ronelle_fin]

@carlmoon $700b erased in a day. that’s a serious risk-off move across equities.

[Ronelle ⋆˙⟡♡ @ronelle_fin]

@pete_rizzo_ $6b Treasury buyback is more about supporting liquidity than dollar dilution. the bond market impact is the part to watch.

[Ronelle ⋆˙⟡♡ @ronelle_fin]

@WhaleInsider $443m in longs liquidated. that’s a serious leverage reset for crypto.

[Ronelle ⋆˙⟡♡ @ronelle_fin]

@netflix 12 hours to go. the anticipation is building fast.

[Ronelle ⋆˙⟡♡ @ronelle_fin]

iran told reuters it can reopen the strait of hormuz within seven days if the US eases military pressure and lifts the blockade on iranian ports.

oil fell $4.52 to $95.78 immediately.

here is what this means for the rate picture ahead of PCE on friday.

the CPI that came in hot last week had oil above $100 as a significant driver of the headline number. if the hormuz reopening is genuine and that is still a big if the energy component of the next two CPI prints comes down materially.

the scenario: hormuz reopens → oil falls toward $80-85 → september and october CPI energy component falls → core PCE on friday already excluded energy, so immediate PCE impact is limited, but the inflation trajectory for Q4 changes.

warsh's december meeting calculus changes significantly if oil is at $82 rather than $100. the disinflation path that he needs to see to justify not hiking again in december gets shorter.

trump is at UNGA saying he faces a choice between a "deal or annihilate" iran. the diplomatic track is active but fragile.

watch the oil price today more than the equity tape. brent is the real-time inflation indicator right now.

[Ronelle ⋆˙⟡♡ @ronelle_fin]

@netflix east of eden, the diplomat, and twilight? netflix has a pretty stacked october lineup.