Ronit Jain

CEO of Pluto (YCW25) - Building the first federally regulated exchange for compute

[Noah Zingler-Sternig @Nostroah]

Incredible news for @ronitrjain and the entire Pluto team.

Compute is on its way to becoming the most valuable commodity on Earth, and @pluto_compute is going to be the flagship exchange to trade it.

[Ronit Jain @ronitrjain]

Great working with @wintermute_t to advance the commodification of compute. If you’re an AI lab, neocloud, or speculator looking to trade OTC, shoot me a dm.

[Wintermute @wintermute_t]

Wintermute executed its first compute forward referencing Nvidia H100 pricing

Compute is becoming a market of its own, with the tools to price and hedge it now starting to emerge

[Ronit Jain @ronitrjain]

Largely agree with @0xfishylosopher here.

I think the big takeaway is that compute is not oil, it's power. Similarly to power, compute has massive price differences based on regionality and config, and ultimately a generic h100 index is probably not something natural players will hedge on for a while because it doesn't really represent underlying exposure to a sufficient degree.

While there is a tradeoff between liquidity and the granularity of an index, power has shown that it has a capacity to be one of the most traded futures products despite having hundreds of fragmented markets.

[Jay Yu 🐟 @0xfishylosopher]

Lots of buzz recently on compute capital markets. But what might these markets actually look like? A few thoughts on its market structure from first principles:

> First, almost everyone agrees that compute has a nonfungibility quality. It behaves closer to electricity (temporal, nonfungible) than corn, oil, and gold.

> This nonfungibility creates several downstream corollaries:
(1) Reservations/capacity forwards are almost always bilateral OTC trades on particular SKUs and params (I want X hours of H200s in us-east-1 running Y model at 12pm on 8/1/2026)
(2) There is no transparent "one-size-fits-all" pricing model for "generic H200s" like there is for corn/oil/gold, hence no proper futures market used for hedging
(3) Most of the teams building in the space (eg. Silicon Data, Ornn, Compute Desk) are focusing on "standardization" indices/benchmarks, in preparation to create a liquid futures market.

> The short-side of compute markets fundamentally comes from neoclouds (Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda) and indepedent data centers (people with GPUs), while the long-side of compute markets comes from inference dev platforms (Fireworks, Modal, Baseten) and the agentic applayer (Cursor, Perplexity, Suno, Rime) that do not run datacenter fleets

> But these principals will never directly trade on general compute exchanges (eg. an H200 basket) because they require specific SKUs. Instead, they'll make their reservations/capacity forwards for specific SKUs with OTC dealers.

> These dealers in turn can "hedge" particular SKUs with exposure to the underlying generalized basket exchanges. So the folks actually using compute futures exchanges are going to be MMs/OTC desks/compute dealers on both sides. This creates an endgame market structure like below:

[Ronit Jain @ronitrjain]

With a lot of talk now happening around the space, we decided to publish our internal white paper as a comprehensive read for anyone interested in compute markets.

https://t.co/QyS17NHibt

[kanav @kanavtwt]

Silicon Valley was far ahead of its time.

[Matt Gallagher @MattP1Gallagher]

My first and only thought after that qualifying session is hearing them downshift on the straights is horrific

[Bearly AI @bearlyai]

Founder of Chicago-based prop trading firm DRW says compute will be world's top commodity in 10 years. People will spend more on GPUs than an oil, which means that there should be a futures financial market for GPUs. 

Interesting implications for startups and cloud providers:

[shafu @shafu0x]

fucking obvious that the frontier is agentic commerce

[Ronit Jain @ronitrjain]

Huge milestone for the Pluto team!

[Pluto @pluto_compute]

Today we reached a major regulatory milestone.

Our applications to operate a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) have been deemed materially complete by the CFTC (publicly listed as PMEX Markets and PMEX Clearing).

Compute is the defining commodity of our time, but while hundreds of billions flow into GPUs, the industry lacks a financial market to hedge that risk the way we do for oil, gold, or power.

As the first regulated derivatives exchange for AI infrastructure, Pluto will lead the way in building the financial layer to price superintelligence.

[Ronit Jain @ronitrjain]

@jayluxeed vpn and @ventuals

[Ronit Jain @ronitrjain]

Really great post by @friedmandave breaking down what's wrong with current preliminary compute pricing indices. I think GPU hours right now are a good stepping stone, but because of the information asymmetry and the number of bilateral, one-off deals, robust indices (what we are building at Pluto) must have take a bottom up approach and define compute in terms of a standard performance unit.
My quick take is because we will eventually converge to a steady-state of smaller neoclouds being phased out and hyperscalars dominating a majority of the supply, it makes sense to place an overt emphasis on choosing premium, Infiniband over Ethernet, NVLink, etc. Agree with Dave that weights will converge themselves.
https://t.co/8gkhitQLwx

[Aakash Gupta @aakashgupta]

Investors valued Cursor at $29 billion across three rounds in 12 months. That’s looking pretty suspect right now.

Cursor went from $1M to $1B ARR faster than any SaaS company in history. The trip back down could be just as fast.

An entire engineering team at Valon just canceled their Cursor seats in 7 minutes over Slack. 9:55 AM: one engineer asks to unsubscribe. 9:56 AM: done. 9:57 AM: “same.” 9:58 AM: “Cursor is so cooked my god.” 10:02 AM: “same I will never use.” No migration plan. No evaluation committee. No vendor review. One developer said “I don’t use this anymore” and the dominoes fell.

Cursor pays Anthropic hundreds of millions a year for Claude model access. Anthropic took that revenue stream, studied exactly what developers wanted, and shipped Claude Code, which crossed $1B ARR within six months and is now past $2.5B, growing faster than Cursor ever did. The model provider looked at its biggest distribution partner and decided to eat them.

Cursor has its own models for tab completion and autocomplete. But the heavy reasoning, the multi-file edits, the architectural decisions that make developers stay, that all runs on Claude. Claude Code delivers that same intelligence without the $20/month middleman.

Microsoft, the company that sells GitHub Copilot, has widely adopted Claude Code internally across major engineering teams. Cursor’s upstream provider is outgrowing them. Their competitor’s parent company chose the upstream provider’s tool over their own. Both happening at once.

The churn is going to be brutal. Enterprise seats look sticky in a spreadsheet until you watch a Slack channel where one cancellation triggers five more in 7 minutes. When your product is a layer between developers and the model they actually want, and the model ships its own interface, you’re selling a toll bridge on a road that just got a free lane. Accel, Thrive, a16z, NVIDIA, and Google all thought they were buying the next platform shift in developer tools. They may have bought the most expensive wrapper in SaaS history.

[Ratio @ratio_dot_you]

already top 3 in volume for the day on polymarket builders.

and we're still in closed beta.

get ratio'd.

[Ronit Jain @ronitrjain]

@ratio_dot_you Awesome concept!

[Ratio @ratio_dot_you]

The Ratio beta is now live on the App Store & Google Play Store.

The first news app built around prediction markets not headlines.

We make markets the source of breaking news.
Live events, OSINT signals, and prediction markets stream together in one place. When the world makes a move, the market is already there.

Not after the headline. Before consensus forms.

This is real-time truth discovery.

[nick @nickemmons]

Just read this paper and here is my take:

Prediction markets are stuck in 1972.

Prediction markets right now = options markets before Black-Scholes. Everyone's trading probabilities with no shared model for how they actually move.

MMs are getting destroyed by volatility, news shocks, and cross-event correlation because there's no standard way to hedge. This is what happens on the backend when prices jump.

The fix that, this paper proposes:

- Map bounded probabilities (0-1) to unbounded log-odds.
- Model beliefs as baseline drift + news shocks (jump-diffusion).

Enforce the 'Martingale' rule: prices shouldn't have a predictable drift. If the market knew it was going up, it would have gone up already.

What you get is the prediction market equivalent of "implied volatility" (a metric that determines how big a price move might be.)

- Belief volatility (how fast odds move)
- Jump intensity (how often news gaps prices)
- Cross-event correlation (how markets move together)

Once the above can be accounted for, you unlock derivative layers that don’t exist yet:

- Belief variance swaps (a derivative where you can trade on market volatility itself)
- Correlation swaps (hedge market baskets)
- Corridor variance (only count vol in the 40-60% swing zone)
- Threshold notes (i.e. "does this hit 70% before Friday?")

Why is Black-Scholes important?

Before Black-Scholes:
- everyone priced options differently
- chaos, wide spreads, guessing

After Black-Scholes:
- everyone argued about one thing only: volatility
- markets got tight, liquid, scalable

Prediction markets need a Black-Scholes equivalent. So that we can build upon them.

Without it, market makers keep getting farmed and liquidity stays shallow.

With it, prediction markets become scalable infrastructure.

[Ronit Jain @ronitrjain]

@yashjainz1 @pk_iv Good chirp @yashjainz1

[Ronit Jain @ronitrjain]

@yashjainz1 account is evidence of the demise of twitter

[Ronit Jain @ronitrjain]

No glaze but those cluely office skits are kinda funny ngl