As a Long term investor I have to do two things:
FIRST
Find horizontal support
Plot 200 Week Moving Average
Buy strong companies right there.
$AMAT tested 200 Week SMA in April 2025. It is up 400% since
$AAPL tested 200 Week SMA in April 2025. It is up 80% since
$NVDA tested 200 Week SMA in Oct 2022. It is up 1700% since
$AMD tested 200 Week SMA in May 2025. It is up 400% since
SECOND
Watch for strong companies to reclaim that 200 Week SMA. You want to buy the reclaim.
$INTC reclaimed 200 Week SMA in Sept 2025, it is up 300% since
$MU reclaimed 200 Week SMA in April 2025, it is up 1400% since
Nobody tells you this but I will:
You can buy the 200 Week SMA, if it spends below that for few weeks - you want to exit and sit back until the 200 week is reclaimed. Then you try again.
There is no shame in trying few times.
$MSFT $CVX $HD $NFLX at near 200 Week SMA.
JUNE 2026 PORTFOLIO UPDATE:
Numbers first. Then the breakdown.
MONTHLY PERFORMANCE
> Long-Term Port: -21.33%
> Short-Term Port: -10.78%
YTD PERFORMANCE
> Long-Term Port: +50.07%
> Short-Term Port: +167.07%
June was a grind. The AI sector took a real hit this month and that was felt across both accounts. Still, stepping back and looking at the YTD numbers, there's nothing to complain about. Both accounts are running well ahead of anything reasonable to expect from an index despite recent dips. This is what conviction-based investing actually looks like. Not every month is up 40%.
LONG-TERM PORTFOLIO — POSITION REFLECTIONS
$OUST — 20.2%
Quietly moved up to my largest allocation. I haven't added. This just reflects where price has taken it. The autonomous systems buildout is a long game and $OUST is well positioned in it. Still comfortable with the sizing.
$NBIS — 19.2%
Still one of my largest position and I have no interest in changing that. The dip in June has been noise relative to the fundamental story here. $399M in Q1 revenue, up 684% year-over-year. That number doesn't care about sentiment.
$RKLB — 14.1%
May was incredible for $RKLB and some of that has given back in June as the broader space sector cooled off after the SpaceX IPO buzz. Doesn't concern me at all. The contract pipeline is stronger than ever and $RKLB continues to prove it deserves its seat at the table. Space is a multi-year story.
$IREN — 13.1%
$IREN has been frustrating this month. Sentiment has turned against it in the short term and that's created some real pressure on the stock. But I couldn't help myself, I added more during this dip. The TA looks exceptional at these levels and the fundamental story on power + AI infrastructure is unchanged. Sometimes the best trades are the uncomfortable ones. This feels very uncomfortable right now.
$CIFR — 10.1%
Holding. The transition thesis toward AI compute infrastructure takes time to play out. June hasn't changed my mind on this one.
$ONDS — 9.1%
I'm down roughly 15% and $ONDS is underperforming as of now. That's the honest truth. But the execution is still there. Q1 revenue surged tenfold year-over-year to $50.1M and full-year guidance was raised to at least $390M. Sometimes price and fundamentals disconnect for a while. I've been here before. Not adding right now, but not going anywhere either.
$KRKNF — 7.1%
Also underperforming in the near term, I'm down -20%. Defense names have been mixed in June. The thesis on subsea battery and sonar dominance is still intact. This is a multi-year buildout story, not a monthly one. Holding and adding.
$AAOI — 7.1%
Honest take — if $ONDS and $KRKNF weren't down 15-20% right now, I'd be re-allocating more toward $AAOI going forward. The optical interconnect demand for AI data centers is real and I think this position deserves to grow. Something I hope to revisit when I have more flexibility.
SHORT-TERM PORTFOLIO — POSITION REFLECTIONS
Two positions, both in space.
$ASTS — 55%
$ASTS came back into the short-term account and it's been the right call. The Blue Origin explosion in late May rattled the sector briefly but $ASTS bounced hard. The company has $3.5B in cash, $1.2B+ in contracted revenue, and is targeting 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by end of 2026. Still in this with high conviction.
$PL — 44%
Planet Labs is the newest addition. Initiated during the SpaceX/space sector dip in and it's already working. Last quarter was strong and I think the guidance was conservative. I expect this one to move slowly back towards ATH.
$SPCX — 1%
Tiny starter position in the SpaceX IPO vehicle. More of a placeholder than a conviction bet right now.
MACRO THOUGHTS — HEADING INTO JULY
June has been the worst month for me this year. Technology and communications lagged from near-term profit taking, while industrials, financials, and healthcare outperformed. That kind of rotation is healthy it doesn't signal the end of the AI trade, it signals a reset.
Now heading into July, the seasonal backdrop is as good as it gets. July has been positive 80% of the time over the last 20 years, with an average gain of 2.67%.
Over the last 10 years, it's been positive 100% of the time. The first half of July stands out as one of the strongest seasonal periods of the year, since 1928, the S&P 500 has advanced 69% of the time during the first half of July, generating an average return of 1.5% and an average rally of 3.2% when positive.
But the real catalyst in July is earnings. $GOOG reports July 22nd, with $MSFT, $META, and $AAPL all dropping results in the final week of July. $AMZN follows shortly after. FactSet is currently forecasting 22% earnings growth for the S&P 500 in Q2 which would mark the second straight quarter of earnings growth above 20%. If the hyperscalers confirm that AI capex is translating into real revenue, expect the growth names to come roaring back.
The AI sector dip in June was an expectations reset, not a thesis break. The structural demand drivers for AI infrastructure remain intact, with hyperscalers continuing to pour hundreds of billions into data centers. My positions haven't changed. My conviction hasn't changed.
July sets up well statistically. I'll sit tight, and let earnings do the talking.
Final note. Looking at the macro picture as of now, I expect the first signs of disinflation to show in September. But lets see.
-BP
As always, this is not financial advice. Do your own research. Always.
The most asked question right now: has Bitcoin bottomed?
Let me share my process around bottoms so everyone understands it fully. I look for three things:
1. A strong support level
2. Positive momentum divergence
3. A key EMA reclaim
Let me walk through Bitcoin right now.
Support at $60k
This is where the breakout happened in September 2024. That breakout was impulsive - took price from $60k to $100k in one move. That level doesn't just disappear. It becomes the floor.
Positive RSI divergence confirmed
Price dropped from 60k to 58k. Meanwhile RSI went from 27 to 33. Price made a lower low but momentum didn't. That's the divergence. That's the signal.
Weekly 21EMA reclaim - still pending
The 21EMA has been declining and acting as strong resistance on every pop. January 2026, May 2026 - both moves topped right there. This is the third condition and it hasn't been met yet.
But here's the thing about that third condition - by the time it gets reclaimed, price is usually already 15-20% higher. You won't get a clean entry waiting for confirmation.
Most times I only need two of the three cues to press the gas.
Two are already in.
I've been a long term holder since 2020. Watched this thing give 1000% from my entry.
If I wasnt already in- I would be dipping toes especially now that it is 50% cheaper.
AI isn't running out of chips.
It's running out of electricity.
Eric Schmidt told Congress they'll need 29 more gigawatts by 2027. Then another 67 by 2030.
AI Power Ecosystem:
Power Generation → $CEG $VST $TLN
SMRs → $OKLO $SMR $NNE
Transformers → $FPS $HPS.A
Electrical Equipment → $ETN $POWL $HUBB $NVT
Transmission & Distribution → $PWR $MYRG
Grid Modernization → $AMSC $GEV $ITRI
Power Semis → $VICR $NVTS $MPWR $ON $AOSL
The AI buildout doesn't stop at the data center.
It extends all the way to the electric grid.
🚨 SPACEX IS REPEATING PALANTIR IN 2020
And it could cost them a fortune.
In 2020, Palantir IPO'd at $10 and exploded to $35.
The media loved it.
Retail couldn't stop buying it.
Everyone was convinced they had found the next trillion-dollar company.
Then Palantir crashed almost 80%.
$35 → $7
That's where most people quit.
That's also where smart money started buying.
What happened next?
$7 → $44+
A life-changing move.
Now look at SpaceX.
IPO near $150.
Pump above $215.
The same hype.
The same headlines.
The same crowd screaming that it's too late.
Now $SPCX has dropped to $165.
And for the first time, weak hands are starting to panic.
Sound familiar?
Because this is exactly how the biggest winners shake people out before the real move begins.
Retail buys excitement.
Institutions buy fear.
Palantir did it.
Amazon did it.
Tesla did it.
And now SpaceX is building the same setup.
My accumulation zone remains:
$145 → $165
My target remains:
$230+
Most people won't buy there.
They'll buy after the headlines return and the easy money is gone.
That's how markets work.
I've spent more than a decade studying market cycles and calling major tops and bottoms before the crowd sees them.
This setup is one of the clearest I've seen all year.
Follow and turn notifications on.
I'll post the exact level where I start buying $SPCX.
The Sentiment flush is here. 🫡
My advice: Watch if Nasdaq can hold 700-705.
Break below will kill July. Because when Tech craps, it ripples everything else with it.
I know that most $NBIS investors don't want to hear this.
But it needs to be said.
Nebius is in freefall right now, and there's more downside potential from here.
I believe we will at least see $160, over the next weeks.
If this is a problem for you, you probably chased it too high.
We bought below $90 on the last correction, and we will catch the bottom on this one again.
It just needs patience.
You can currently buy
$MRVL slightly above where Jensen said it’s going to $1T (it’s currently about $200B market cap, that would be a 5x)
$NBIS at the same price is was when it was announced that leopold took a huge stake
$NOK $3 below where insiders poured millions of $$ into it
Pay close attention to this.
Tech: Red
Finance: Green
Healthcare: Green
Defensive: Green
Energy: Green
Rotation will wreck people now.
I highly recommend positioning yourself into leading sectors ahead of time and riding the trend.
Right now Healthcare is leading
We're starting to see Banks join the club
Thats where money is at. Been clear for last 3 months now.
Go check out $UNH $HIMS $OSCR $LLY $JNJ $VRTX.
I will attach 25 Bio stocks you can focus on.