Rosternomics

Every MLB trade, graded. Trade calculator, historical trade database, and GM rankings. The art of roster building meets the science of analytics. ⚾️

[Rosternomics @rosternomics]

Trade deadline's over - now you can vote on every trade in one place instead of one at a time. Who overpaid, who fleeced who - rate all of them in a sitting: https://t.co/sTFSJ1lEnN

[Rosternomics @rosternomics]

Bingo, the language around ‘winners’ vs ‘losers’ is is more about how you define those terms. If you measure by surplus value acquired or lost, buyers will look like losers and sellers will look like winners for the most part. It’s not saying all losers made bad trades and all winners made good ones.

[Rosternomics @rosternomics]

Every trade from the last 7 days, net surplus by team according to our model. Winners and losers below.

[Rosternomics @rosternomics]

Yeah they're rentals for a reason. These teams know what they have to do to fill holes in the rosters and it usually comes down to (1) acquiring players on negative surplus contracts or (2) giving up existing players at positions of depth or (3) giving up prospects or (4) a combination of those - all of which can quickly put a team in the red. Doesn't mean they're inherently 'bad' deals - some teams have to be buyers, some have to be sellers.

[Rosternomics @rosternomics]

Yes two main places!

1. We have a banner on the home/trade calculator pages that if you click it, explains our recent model updates: https://t.co/kJsXP7OQkZ

2. Every trade that you make on the trade calculator or that’s in our trade database has a full explanation of how we arrive at each value. You can access it if you click the player’s ‘WHY’ section, for example, here’s the Adley trade today: https://t.co/O2YOBUmhJt

I’m also happy to answer any question here as well, shoot me a DM or a reply and I’ll usually respond

[Rosternomics @rosternomics]

Wow, that was a rush. Thank you to everyone who supported us by liking, following, and building trades on the site. When we launched in June we never thought we'd see this much engagement so soon. Looking forward to being around for many more deadlines to come.

[Rosternomics @rosternomics]

My man wanted to protect himself from those state income taxes and I can’t blame him. But yeah I’d be curious too, I could see it both ways where they wanted to tell him he would be going to the Braves, for example, to add that extra incentive versus not telling him just to be more professional

[Rosternomics @rosternomics]

Thanks for your input, we use fWAR not bWAR which is likely where your frustration is coming from. Griffin has a 1.8 fWAR which is good for 39th overall amount starters. If you care to know why the model works the way it does you can see the explanation in the post or read the trade card on the website

[Rosternomics @rosternomics]

#Nationals ⇄ #Guardians
→ WSN: Will Dion, LHP (+$8.5M / 2.4 WAR); Josh Hartle, LHP (+$1.8M / 1.1 WAR); Kendeglys Virguez, RHP (+$1.8M / 1.1 WAR); Nick Mitchell, OF (+$1.8M / 1.1 WAR)
→ CLE: Foster Griffin, LHP (-$10.4M / 1.5 WAR)
Edge: Washington (decisive)

Note: the model is skeptical about Griffin, we grade him as a replacement level starter (~1.5 WAR/yr) which is solid, but not for his pay level

[Rosternomics @rosternomics]

You’re right that the bust risk is factored into that 2.6 number but that number is an expected value not a ceiling and it’s also spread out over his entire six years of control.

But realization risk isn’t the only gap. Mize’s value is happening now, and present WAR (as @theRealistJoel mentioned) gets discounted less than WAR projected years out. Cost cuts the other way, Mize’s arbitration salary eats into his surplus while a pre-arb guy is cheaper, but the timing and certainty of near-term production still carry enough to put him in a similar surplus ballpark.

[Rosternomics @rosternomics]

#Tigers ⇄ #Padres
→ DET: Kash Mayfield, LHP (+$9.1M / 2.6 WAR); Jackson Wolf, LHP (+$4.1M / 0.8 WAR)
→ SDP: Casey Mize, RHP (+$13.6M / 1.0 WAR); Gage Workman, 3B (-$4.1M / 0.0 WAR)
Edge: Detroit (slight)

[Rosternomics @rosternomics]

#Pirates ⇄ #Padres
→ PIT: Andrew Moore, RHP (+$1.3M / 1.0 WAR)
→ SDP: Hunter Stratton, RHP (+$3.4M / 0.6 WAR)
Edge: San Diego (slight)

[Rosternomics @rosternomics]

#STLCards ⇄ #Dbacks
→ STL: Sandro Santana, LHP (+$1.8M / 1.1 WAR); Daniel Eagen, RHP (+$1.8M / 1.1 WAR)
→ ARI: Lars Nootbaar, LF (+$4.4M / 1.7 WAR)
Edge: Arizona (narrow)

[Rosternomics @rosternomics]

#Athletics ⇄ #Phillies
→ OAK: Seth Johnson, RHP (+$3.8M / 0.7 WAR)
→ PHI: Colby Thomas, RF (+$11.9M / 1.7 WAR)
Edge: Philadelphia (clear)

[Rosternomics @rosternomics]

#RedSox ⇄ #SFGiants
→ BOS: Erik Miller, LHP (+$2.6M / 1.0 WAR); Carlos Gutierrez, OF (+$1.8M / 1.1 WAR)
→ SFG: Marcelo Mayer, 2B (+$22.1M / 3.6 WAR)
Edge: San Francisco (decisive)

[Rosternomics @rosternomics]

#RedSox ⇄ #SFGiants
→ BOS: Erik Miller, LHP (+$2.6M / 1.0 WAR)
→ SFG: Marcelo Mayer, 2B (+$22.1M / 3.6 WAR)
Edge: San Francisco (decisive)

[Rosternomics @rosternomics]

#Angels ⇄ #Pirates
→ ANA: Kyle Robinson, RHP (+$1.8M / 1.1 WAR); cash ($0.3M)
→ PIT: Kirby Yates, RHP (-$1.5M / 0.0 WAR)
Edge: LA Angels (slight)

[Rosternomics @rosternomics]

#Reds ⇄ #Pirates
→ CIN: cash ($0.3M)
→ PIT: Caleb Ferguson, LHP (-$0.2M / 0.2 WAR)
Edge: Cincinnati (narrow)

[Rosternomics @rosternomics]

#Marlins ⇄ #Pirates
→ MIA: Brandan Bidois, RHP (+$9.5M / 2.6 WAR); Hyun Seung Lee, SS (+$1.8M / 1.1 WAR); Brian Sanchez, LF (+$1.8M / 1.1 WAR)
→ PIT: Lake Bachar, RHP (-$2.6M / 0.0 WAR)
Edge: Miami (decisive)

[Rosternomics @rosternomics]

#Dodgers ⇄ #Rays
→ LAD: Hunter Feduccia, C (+$2.6M / 1.4 WAR); Jacob Kmatz, RHP (+$1.8M / 1.1 WAR)
→ TBR: Jack Suwinski, OF (-$1.5M / 0.5 WAR)
Edge: LA Dodgers (slight)

[Rosternomics @rosternomics]

#Reds ⇄ #Guardians
→ CIN: Alejandro Rivera, RHP (+$1.8M / 1.1 WAR)
→ CLE: Nathaniel Lowe, DH (+$0.6M / 0.3 WAR)
Edge: Cincinnati (narrow)

[Rosternomics @rosternomics]

#Rockies ⇄ #Marlins
→ COL: Connor Norby, 1B (+$6.4M / 2.1 WAR); Aiden May, RHP (+$1.8M / 1.1 WAR)
→ MIA: Victor Vodnik, RHP (+$4.3M / 1.3 WAR)
Edge: Colorado (slight)