as you probably know, i was definitely in the "4 year cycle is broken" camp. i think with BTC now at 69k, 45% off the highs (and a huge underperformance vs stocks) it's quite clear i was wrong because i think that's a big enough drop for me to classify it as a cycle.
that being said, i would much rather be a buyer than a seller here, and in the context of where i think crypto can go the upside far exceeds the downside.
i'm just simply never going to be one of those people who sht themselves at the lows, because time and time again, 99% of the money i've made in my life has come from accumulating risk in big dips, and often the best trades have been the ones where i feel like i'm the only person buying and it feels absolutely horrific.
i think it's important to recognise and understand your trading and investing style, and a large portion of CT seems to have an obsession with catching breakouts. imo, this is a relatively low probability way of making good money, and i've seen very few people do it successfully consistently. even "good traders" who make money every year...the guys that killed in the 2021 or 2024 bull runs will have made many multiples more than these guys, even if they didn't have a good 2025 or 2026.
a lot of people seem to be concerned that "crypto is dead". if you've been around long enough you will have seen this story multiple times before, and it's never the case. i think there is a great misunderstanding that "crypto MUST have a use case in order to go higher" - that's not really true...my belief is price often moves first and narratives come after to match the price. the tech always seems more revolutionary at higher prices, just like how art also looks better at higher prices.
one thing for sure, i won't be fading the 4y cycle thesis again, it's clear to me that BTC is closely held by a large group of whales and if that's the narrative/playbook they wanna keep running, then that's what they gonna do and you can't fight it. what it does mean is that we will have another great big uprising and contrary to what you may think, the seeds to your wealth are actually sewn in the bear market.
think about it this way, let's say you left in 2022 after the FTX collapse...you probably didn't return to crypto until mid 2024 to start trading again, and i bet you very few people made good money from that period until now. the people who actually made the most money, were the ones who stuck around during 2023, caught trades like $PEPE, $BONK, $MOG, $WIF, $SOL...if you were around during that period it would have been very hard for you to have not caught at least one of these...and that set you up to trade from a position of strength for the remainder of the cycle.
the problem is, when you leave and when you sell, you will certainly miss the best opportunities...you're always sitting there thinking "i wish i was early"...well being early doesn't come from fkn off and thinking it's all over...sure...there's a lot of luck involved, but you have to put yourself in a position of receiving that luck which means locking in when everyone has given up, and taking risks when others are gun shy.
the best and easiest strategy is to simply DCA and accumulate spot. too many people are obsessed at catching the bottom, and are mentally weak at being able to withstand negative unrealised pnl. however, the highest probability way to make a lot of money over a longer period of time is to accumulate lower and lower and build up a nice position, so you are ready for when thinks start moving higher again, it requires a lot of patience, and it requires a lot of conviction, because everyone around you will tell you "it's too early, lower first, i'm shorting here" etc etc...but none of these points are generally relevant to your goal.
this strategy does not work if you are taking leverage, and it does not work if you are investing money you need in the short term, because it requires you to be patient and hold for long periods of time. however, i think the vast majority of people on CT would make way more money (potentially life changing for many of you) if they employed a strategy like this, rather than chasing aggressive quick wins (ie gambling).
i am very grateful for crypto because i have made enough money to change my life substantially, but the significant majority of my gains have come from accumulating risk during 2022-23 and monetising during 2024.
this next cycle will be different for me, because as you may be aware, i don't really trade much anymore and my full focus is on $REKT...but i think the same concepts apply.
over the next few weeks and months you will see many project founders leave (already started) and communities slowly die. many coins will literally never come back and will be totally gone, and then the same project founders who left will return when the good times are back and start on their next grift.
as you should have gathered, that certainly will not be me and it certainly will not be $REKT. 2026 will mark the 5th year of our community, which really truly formed and strengthened during the 2022 bear market. it is literally our bread and butter, engrained into our personalities and that is exactly why the entire project is called Rekt!
but more importantly, i think the same concepts i mentioned about trading wholly apply to being a project founder. i believe this creates a far greater opportunity for us than if we were still in a raging bull where you have to really compete hard for attention. these are the moments when everyone gives up, and you make a name for yourself as one of the few things "still going"...and actually, if you deliver positive news and create meaningful developments, people are infinitely more impressed.
creating something successful and truly inter-cycle requires trust. it requires people to believe "this thing WILL go up again when the market resumes", and this trust only establishes itself once a coin has proven its ability to bounce back and regain momentum. part of that comes from historical patterns, for coins where there are no "founders" (like BTC obviously), but for coins with founders, people want comfort that they are not going to leave and be working as hard as they can to not just keep things going, but actually excel the position.
in then last 14 years of trading markets, these are the times i've really set myself up to make the most money, and meaningfully furthering my life goals through each cycle. that's not because i am a good trader, but it's because i know i have an edge in these environments when everyone else has given up hope and i see big opportunities, with little competition in hunting for those opportunities. it is with this mindset i intend on furthering $REKT + @rektdrinks this year and i inherently believe we have a massive opportunity to stand out as something interesting in what is a terrible market.
we made massive strides last year, we've already delivered a lot in january, and i believe we have significant and sufficient momentum to make a pretty big mark this year. if the market stays this way, i believe we have a very unique opportunity to stand out, outperform and end the year making people think "fk, this was the trade all along".
markets will be markets, but i think the worst is over...the question i ask myself is not "can we go another 30-50% lower", it's the fact that i know we can go another 200-1000% higher, it's just gonna take hard work and patience.
the way i see it, is i have made money in a very specific, high probability way for many years, and if it ain't broke don't fix it. now it's time to do it with $REKT.
🚨🚨🚨 Please read carefully. Be aware of impersonators or scams. This is not a thread. All relevant information is contained in this single post. Thank you. 🚨🚨🚨
GM everyone!
The Squiggle Farewell smart contract is now live! This contract will immutably tie anyone who signs it with the final Chromie Squiggle mint #9999 that will be minted directly to @LACMA’s wallet.
To be included in this farewell relic, simply send any trivial amount of ETH to squigglefarewell.eth (0x9b917686DD68B68A780cB8Bf70aF46617A7b3f80). This ETH will automatically be sent right back to you; it’s simply needed to trigger the inscription function. You can send as little as 0.000000000000000001 ETH if you’d like. Note that there is a gas cost to the transaction that should be calculated by your wallet when sending the ETH.
Please make 100% sure you’re sending to the above address. Be wary of any impersonators or replies to this post suggesting any websites that would require you to connect your wallet in any way as that is not necessary to participate. Also make sure you’re connected to ETH Mainnet with your wallet prior to initiating the transaction.
If you are a Squiggle collector as of the time of this post please sign the relic contract with your Squiggle holding wallet. If your Squiggle wallet is delegated via @delegatedotxyz please make sure to sign the relic contract with your delegated wallet (not your vault).
To explore the relic contract visit this link to read the raw contract directly:
https://t.co/FJHMhRqiJs
I’ve added a little farewell message there, be sure to check it out 🙂.
You have a full week to interact so take your time, and we will lock down the contract next Monday, July 22nd at 12:00pm CT, after which no further changes can be made.
The smart contract has a mint function that will trigger the mint of Squiggle #9999 in the next few weeks. Can’t wait to see the final mint and share that experience with everyone who participates in this farewell!
Please help me amplify this message so we can get as many art and tech appreciators, both within and outside of web3, to participate.
Thank you for playing such a meaningful part in this journey with me.
Huge thanks to @_deafbeef for bringing this relic contract to life!
We have a week full of festivities and announcements planned around this so stay tuned for more.
❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️