Only thing that might preclude a Category 5 upgrade is there is some question of whether SFMR winds tend to have a slight high bias at these extremes (ongoing research question). Given the 147kt FL winds and undersampling, however, I'm inclined to think 140kt surface is accurate.
@AndyHazelton This Active November making History, it think a Upgrade is possible given that the eye contracting and the robust pinks rotating around the eye wall at this time.
Models seem to have lost interest in the Caribbean system but the "fundamentals" are still training my eye on the feature N of Panama:
-Plenty of convection
-Big upper-level anticyclone
-Very warm SSTs
-Favorable MJO/CCKW forcing
-Climatologically favored development mode &region
#OnThisDay in 2018, the #NOAA20 🛰️ became officially operational. It carries a suite of advanced instruments that provide improved observations of weather conditions that help increase the accuracy of forecasts.
Learn more and see some of its first images: https://t.co/YvPYmfUMnX
As the 2020 #Atlantic Hurricane Season kicks off today, #GOESEast is watching a tropical disturbance over the #Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. @NHCAtlantic says it has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next day or two. More info: https://t.co/mLx6or8Gs1
Today is June 1st and hurricane season is off to a busy start! A disturbance over the Yucatan Peninsula has a high (80%) chance of becoming a tropical depression during the next couple of days when it moves over the Bay of Campeche. More: https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb