RUHLOT

Everyone else lives in the Truman Show. Don't let that hold you back.

[Nicholas Mugalli @RealNickMugalli]

🇯🇵🇺🇸 People don’t understand how dangerous this is. Here is a bit of what’s going on. We’re selling Euros (destabilizing Europe) to buy Yen (stabilizing Japan) which isn't really a sign of control, it's actually a desperate operational patch on a breaking U.S. yield curve. 

The "everything is under control" narrative is not really working here because it’s missing what is actually happening. The US govt didn't step in to preemptively smooth out the market ahead of the midterms, they stepped in because a massive global unwinding is already threatening the plumbing.

When Japan is forced to defend a crashing yen unilaterally, it has to dump U.S. Treasuries which directly spikes 10Y and 30Y yields in DC. Selling EUR reserve assets lets the NY Fed shore up JPY liquidity without openly flooding the market with U.S. paper... but running this play exposes just how trapped the Fed really is.

This time they're coordinating, but forced intervention at this scale historically signals that the dam is about to break…you know what to do!

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The bond market situation is crazy.

While everyone focuses on AI, US borrowing rates just hit the highest level since June 2007.

Credit card "serious delinquencies" are at the highest since 2010 and mortgage rates could near 8%.

What's happening? Let us explain.

(a thread)

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

Japan🇯🇵 is currently executing what may become the most catastrophic monetary policy error in modern financial history.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is trapped in a brutal, zero-sum macroeconomic corner: they cannot raise rates aggressively without completely nuking the finances of the most heavily indebted nation in the developed world, yet holding off means watching their sovereign bond market slide toward a systemic collapse.

By burning billions in foreign reserves to artificially prop up a dying Yen while simultaneously printing money to buy their own crashing bonds, Japanese policymakers are essentially holding a grenade with the pin pulled.

If this experiment detonates, it will make Arthur Burns’ 1970s stagflationary missteps look like a minor accounting error.

🚨 THE JAPANESE DOOM LOOP: Why a Economic Crisis is Unfolding

1. The Burning Yen & Empty Buffers

The Sinking Currency: The Yen continues to languish near historic 40-year lows against the US Dollar.

Desperate Interventions: Tokyo is burning through its real-money reserves, executing massive FX "ambush" interventions..selling US Treasuries to buy Yen.

The Limited Impact: This multi-billion dollar defence is failing. The market is absorbing the intervention cash and continuing to dump the currency because the underlying structural math is broken.

2. A Sovereign Bond Market Under Siege

Yields Exploding: Long-term Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields are hitting multi-decade highs, with 40-year yields breaching 4%.

The BOJ Left Holding the Bag: Traditional institutional investors are fleeing the fixed-income market. To prevent an outright market freeze, the BOJ is forced to act as the ultimate "buyer of last resort," absorbing more than 50% of all outstanding government debt.

3. The 250% Debt Trap meets an Aging Demographic

The World’s Highest Debt: Japan’s gross national debt sits at an astronomical 250%+ of its GDP.

The Math of Ruin: If the BOJ raises short-term rates aggressively to protect the Yen, government interest payments will explode exponentially.

Demographic Collapse: A rapidly aging, shrinking workforce cannot generate the tax revenue needed to cover skyrocketing debt-servicing costs. Raising rates directly threatens to bankrupt the state's social safety net.

4. The Onset of Vicious Stagflation

Imported Inflation Shock: Because Japan imports the vast majority of its energy and food, the obliterated Yen has triggered a massive cost-of-living crisis.

Drowning Living Standards: While basic survival costs surge due to global supply shocks, real domestic GDP growth remains functionally stagnant.

The Policy Trap: Japan has effectively engineered a worst-case scenario: a hyper-inflated cost of living paired with an economic growth trajectory that is completely flatlined.

Curtains.

[PeterSweden @PeterSweden7]

The mainstream media has tried to portray the wildfires that is happening in Europe now as a result of climate change.

France just announced they have arrested 162 people in connection with starting fires.

[Camus @newstart_2024]

Zero alcohol is better than any amount.

Andrew Huberman’s practical ceiling for people who aren’t dealing with alcohol use disorder: two drinks per week. Beyond that, data from the UK Brain Bank shows a measurable pattern, every extra drink per week is linked to a bit more brain atrophy and neuron loss.

Large-scale imaging studies (including UK Biobank analyses) have found a dose-dependent association between higher weekly alcohol intake and reduced gray-matter volume, even at levels once considered moderate.

Clear dose-response. The less, the better for the brain.

[Wall Street Apes @WallStreetApes]

Starbucks employees expose that Starbucks is using “blending powder” in many of their newer drinks

This new powder was just introduced this month. If you drink Starbucks you should be concerned about this

This “blending powder” consists of Gum arabic, maltodextrin, xanthan gum, natural flavor, silica and stevia extract (rebaudioside-A)

The reason they use it is because it acts as an emulsifier and stabilizer

The gums and other components create a smoother, more consistent frozen blended texture and slows separation that would otherwise happen soon after the drink leaves the blender

Starbucks employees have been making videos saying it makes their throats hurt, makes them cough and makes their head hurt

The silica is silicon dioxide and acts as an anti-caking agent. This is a very controversial ingredient for health concerns

But it’s also a concern for these Starbucks employees because inhaling it is dangerous

Fine silica dust can become airborne when the powder is scooped. Prolonged or repeated inhalation of certain forms of silica is linked to serious lung conditions like silicosis

This should not be put in drinks we consume

Our food is a science experiment

‘Starbucks Workers United and individual baristas have publicly raised concerns since the powder’s introduction around mid-July 2026. Reports include the powder becoming airborne easily, along with some partners mentioning symptoms like sore throats, coughing, or chest irritation’

[Stern Drew @SternDrewCrypto]

🚨 WE ARE ABOUT TO WITNESS THE BIGGEST WAR IN HISTORY FOR THE SURVIVAL OF PETRODOLLAR

Massive U.S. bomber formations, continuous surveillance flights, and heavy air movements are now saturating the skies near Iran. This is no longer posturing.

This is the opening chapter of the biggest geopolitical-financial war of our lifetime, the one that will decide whether the petrodollar survives… or dies.

If the U.S. fails to completely dismantle the IRGC’s control inside Iran, the consequences are not gradual. They are terminal‼️

Iran has already laid down the new law of energy: Every single barrel of oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz, the artery carrying ~20% of the world’s crude, must be settled in Chinese yuan. No dollars. Full stop.

The moment that demand sticks, the 50-year monopoly that forced the world to recycle oil revenues into U.S. Treasuries collapses overnight. The petrodollar doesn’t weaken. It dies. And the yuan (backed by real oil flow) becomes the new settlement currency of the energy world.

Watch the bombers. Watch the surveillance orbits. Watch Hormuz.

Because if this war ends with the IRGC still standing, the dollar’s exorbitant privilege ends with it and a multipolar monetary order ruled by Beijing’s currency and decentralized rails takes its place.

The markets haven’t priced this yet. They will.

The faith of the petrodollar is now being decided in the skies over the Gulf.

[The Hormuz Report @HormuzReport]

BREAKING: A source close to Iran's chief negotiator says Tehran has rejected three U.S. backed ceasefire proposals this week, delivered through Qatar, Iraq, and Pakistan — which reportedly angered Donald Trump and pushed him to announce a massive strike on Iran, according to Iranian outlets.

The source suggests Iran is waiting for U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels to drop critically low, expected by mid-August, and for oil to hit around $120 a barrel before considering any deal and and eventually, Donald Trump would have to accept Iran's terms, meaning TACO.

The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has fallen to approximately 311.4 million barrels, its lowest level since March 1983, according to the latest EIA data. Analysts warn that if disruptions hit both the Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz at the same time, oil could climb to around $124 a barrel in August.

[Megatron @Megatron_ron]

BREAKING: The price of Brent Crude oil has surpassed $100 per barrel

[𝕊𝕡𝕣𝕚𝕟𝕥𝕖𝕣 𝕻𝕣𝕖𝕤𝕤 @SprinterPress]

Burnham stated that the first person he would call is Zelensky.

[Who would you call first? President Trump? President Zelensky? Or someone else?]

Those will be my first calls. And today, I will clearly tell President Zelensky that there are no changes. I will be 100% with him, just like Keir Starmer. And Keir has done truly incredible work, not just supporting Ukraine, but also being there in person. And I will be right there with him as well.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: America’s "NILF" population — Not in Labor Force — surges by 832,000 to a record 105.8 million.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

ISRAELI FINANCE MINISTER SMOTRICH ON GAZA: IF DECISION IS MADE TO CONQUER GAZA AND SETTLE IT AS PART OF ISRAELI HOMELAND, THAT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN; DECLARES THIS WOULD REPRESENT ABSOLUTE VICTORY BEYOND MERELY DEFEATING HAMAS; STATES THERE WILL BE JEWISH SETTLEMENT, AN ARMY AND SECURITY IN GAZA

[RUHLOT @RUHLOT]

@RichardJMurphy What made you think he "meant to bring about change?"

[Current Report @Currentreport1]

JUST IN:

Yemen's Ansarullah has started enforcing a naval blockade on all Saudi ports in the Red Sea.

Ansarullah has deployed anti-ship missiles, increased military activity along the Saudi border, and stepped up naval operations in the Red Sea as part of the blockade.

[Glenn Diesen @Glenn_Diesen]

Germany and Britain are evacuating their diplomats from Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The US has advised its citizens to leave the Middle East region. A lot of indications that massive escalations are being prepared.

[RUHLOT @RUHLOT]

@Nino_CBK @dsitt_ @utdreport Player boycott may be the only way to oust him.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran officially and formally exits the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding with the United States, with Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi saying, effective immediately, Iran is suspending all commitments and will not implement any of them after the US “violated and suspended all of its commitments” first, and is now purely focused on defending the country, per Tasnim.

Gharibabadi says Iran will “never start negotiations with the US under any circumstances.”

[RUHLOT @RUHLOT]

@TOzgokmen Swap deindustrialising commodity poor EU for Russia.

[Kathleen Tyson @Kathleen_Tyson_]

State piracy is making UK and EU uninvestable.

Netherlands stole Nexperia from WingTech.
Italy stole Pirelli from Sinotech.
UK stole British Steel from Jingye Group.

Europe rewards billions invested in maintaining and modernising industries with state piracy then complains about Chinese trade imbalance.

[RUHLOT @RUHLOT]

@adamsummerton Softball questions that gave Tuchel easy "out balls."