Ruins Report

Geopolitics, explained daily. What is happening, who is driving it, and what comes next, drawn from the sharpest analysts in the field.

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Joe Kent on Glenn Diesen: "we are existing almost right now entirely on this cartoonish idea that America can do whatever it wants to the world and the world will bend at our will."

His test case is Ansar Allah: "at some point we will end up cutting a deal with them."

Full debrief: https://t.co/S0mUNurOt1

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One line of CENTCOM's account has been checked by someone outside the command: aircraft losses.

Four F-15Es, three of them to friendly fire. Seven tankers. An early-warning aircraft damaged on the ground in Saudi Arabia. As many as 30 MQ-9 drones.

No comparable review exists for the billion barrels and the 2,000 transits.

The market has run its own check: "Why in the world is the oil price so high? It doesn't match up," per Steve Hanke.

Full debrief: https://t.co/S0mUNusmiz

Image: US aircraft losses in the Gulf war, as tallied by the Congressional Research Service.

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CENTCOM says its Hormuz blockade is "ironclad."

Admiral Brad Cooper's 19 September update: more than a billion barrels of crude out of the Gulf, over 2,000 transits, primary lanes clear of mines, zero Iranian exports. The figures are CENTCOM's own.

The air defence on offer to the Gulf states: "the United States is critically low on interceptors and precision strike munitions and interception systems," per Anthony Aguilar.

New Patriot interceptor capacity for the Gulf does not arrive until August 2028, per Anthony Aguilar.

The official account describes a position the United States does not hold.

Full debrief: https://t.co/S0mUNurOt1

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Theodore Postol on Dialogue Works: "But let me tell you, the dumbest thing you can do is think you have air defenses that will work. They won't."

His counsel to Western Europe, which he says should not assume its missile defences would fare any better against Russia: "so don't start something you can't finish."

Full debrief: https://t.co/9LraA0KQ8J

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Contractors claimed a 90 percent Patriot success rate against the Iranian ballistic-missile attack on the Muwaffaq Salti airbase in Jordan.

Theodore Postol, the MIT physicist and missile-defence specialist, went through the video frame by frame. His count of confirmed PAC-3 intercepts: "But, right now, the count's at one."

Against a manoeuvring ballistic missile arriving at more than three kilometres a second, "its probability of intercept is basically zero," per Postol.

Of 35 years of Raytheon and Lockheed Martin performance claims: "This is outright fraud."

The components for Patriot interceptors are not America's to produce at will. "China controls the supply chain," per Larry Johnson.

Patriot and THAAD stockpiles are being drawn down faster than they can be replaced, per John Mearsheimer.

The Gulf's security rested on hardware sold as one thing that performs as another.

Full debrief: https://t.co/9LraA0LnYh

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@Olgachristie "Genocide is complicated"
- Ed Sheeran

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Two explosions were heard over Riyadh at about three this morning, after a "hostile aerial threat" alert. Saudi Civil Defence lifted the alert roughly half an hour later.

The alert and the sound are confirmed. No impact inside the city has been established.

It is the first time the Saudi capital itself has been touched since the Yemen war reignited in July.

A day earlier, speaking from Sanaa, Hussain Albukhaiti said "we will wake up to a major attack against Saudi Arabia and especially against Riyad." Whether this was the attack he meant is not established.

Saudi Aramco has told the Europeans there will be no oil for the rest of September, and now none for all of October, per John Mearsheimer.

"I think the US Saudi alliance such as it was is now in tatters," per Chas Freeman.

The American guarantee that organized the Gulf for generations was meant to make a night like this impossible.

Full debrief: https://t.co/9LraA0LnYh

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@Drakdsr @WarMonitor3 Amen. The Ukrainian propaganda is relentless

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@nospamjones @KareemRifai you come up with that clever response all by yourself Mr. Jones?

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Richard Wolff on Dialogue Works: "The United States is no longer invincible. Iran has proven it."

His lesson from the first round: "the world is governed by brute strength, not by rules."

Full debrief: https://t.co/4At45FAlYW

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Donald Trump says the failing Nation of Iran wants to make a deal quickly and badly.

Alastair Crooke: "Iran is not begging for a deal at all."

Saudi Arabia is exporting zero barrels of oil, per Crooke.

Diesel is $6.50 a gallon in the United States, about twice what it was a few months ago, per Richard Wolff.

The Iran war is deeply unpopular with American voters, per pollster Rich Baris. "Democrats could get 54 seats in the US Senate."

The party under time pressure is the one facing an election on 3 November.

Donald Trump on Truth Social, September 14. Via @RapidResponse47.

Full debrief: https://t.co/i8QqYBMMDf

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@ShaunPinnerUA Source: "trust me bro"

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@rshereme So this was the plan all along.... Russia was right. NATO was never about defense. It was always about breaking up Russia.

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@Tweet4AnnaNAFO Ukraine just begging to be destroyed....

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Alexander Mercouris expects the United States to open a far larger war on Iran once the midterms are past.

His forecast on The Duran: Washington will "keep going for the next two months and then the big war against the Iranians in November will begin."

The United States has authorized shipping 40,000 tons of its largest bombs to Israel, per Richard Wolff.

Alastair Crooke doubts Washington can restart the fight. The munitions and air defenses used up in the first round take years to replenish, and American opinion has no appetite for a second attempt.

The revolt has a face in the president's own party. Rep. Thomas Massie has filed an impeachment resolution against Defense Secretary Hegseth over the Iran war.

The first round settled nothing. The decision to fight a second is no longer Washington's alone.

Full debrief: https://t.co/i8QqYBMMDf

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@jacopo_iacoboni Ukraine's drones rely on Chinese components. you can make the argument that China has done more to keep Ukraine in the fight than any other country.

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Orekhov "is not only falling" but "a disaster for the Ukrainian army is playing out" there, per Alexander Mercouris. Russian forces are closing around Dobropolye.

"I think the war will come to an early end," per Gilbert Doctorow. Ukraine cannot sustain the fight much past this winter, in his reading.

China's output is now roughly 30 percent larger than America's at purchasing-power parity. BRICS, at 41 percent of world output, has overtaken the G7, per Jeffrey Sachs.

Phil Giraldi calls the planned gift of 40,000 2,000-pound bombs to the Netanyahu government American pilots doing Israel's "dirty work," since Israel lacks the aircraft to deliver them.

Full debrief: https://t.co/H0IRa5EEHV

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"Yemen is killing Saudi Arabia. Killing it. Literally killing it. We're looking at the death of a nation."

Scott Ritter, on Dialogue Works, on a war he calls unrecoverable.

Full debrief: https://t.co/l2zlI8P50B

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@DeanedriggsDean @martyrmade