mmakselon

Jestem po komparatystyce, nie mam godności.
Robię książki. Dobre.

[mmakselon @ryan3vu]

@rugproofxioia @GustavoMont3iro @OddsMindX @XenyPM @Xmarketapp you capture that flow

[mmakselon @ryan3vu]

@rugproofxioia @GustavoMont3iro @OddsMindX @XenyPM @Xmarketapp and on @Xmarketapp you earn from people trading them

[mmakselon @ryan3vu]

@WenRugxxx lowkey better to find somewhere early than chase crowded odds

[mmakselon @ryan3vu]

@OddsMindX @mason_zx13c on xmarket you can create markets and earn from that flow

[mmakselon @ryan3vu]

@DavidAbasyan @mason_zx13c @leopa665 @mahera777 @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade that’s way more scalable

[mmakselon @ryan3vu]

@DavidAbasyan @mason_zx13c @mahera777 @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade on xmarket you can even create markets based on those models

[mmakselon @ryan3vu]

@llowide @mason_zx13c @masosn94 @hanakoxbt like creating markets n taking fees

[AdiiX @adiix_official]

Chinese student used AI from Anthropic to turn $1,000 into $1,500,000

He studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

His account is k9Q2m

In such a young age he already make a million simply knowing the right formulas and being able to use Claude

Result:

$1,430 → $1,550,750

44,364 trades

Win rate 100%

The biggest win $23,600 on a single bet

k9Q2m profile:

https://t.co/YlkCWCNhJG

How it bots work:

The bot runs 6 formulas hedge funds use simultaneously, every tick.

Most traders guess. This bot calculates.

Formula 1 - LMSR Pricing

Polymarket prices move on a logarithmic curve.

The bot knows the exact price impact before entering.

Market says 31¢ for BTC up in 5 minutes.

The model sees the curve is mispriced.

The bot enters before the correction.

Formula 2 - Kelly Criterion

Renaissance Capital uses it.

Two Sigma uses it.

Now your bot uses it.

Every bet is sized exactly right.

Never too big to blow the account.

Never too small to matter.

$1,000 bankroll. Consistent edge.

Kelly compounds it into something real.

Formula 3 - EV Gap Detection

The bot scans every BTC market looking for one thing:

- Where is the market price wrong by more than 5%?

- Market says 30¢. Real probability is 55¢. EV = +0.52. The bot enters.

Most people never see this gap. The bot never misses it.

Formula 4 - KL-Divergence

BTC 5-minute and 15-minute markets are correlated. When they drift apart - that's an arb.

The bot measures the statistical distance between them every second. When it crosses 0.2, it flags the trade.

This is how hedge funds extracted $100K+ on correlated election markets. The same logic runs here.

Formula 5 - Bayesian Updates

New block confirmed. Volume spike. Price movement.

The bot doesn't ignore signals - it updates.

Prior probability was 54%.

New data comes in.

Posterior jumps to 71%.

The bot re-prices in real time while the market is still asleep.

Formula 6 - Stoikov Execution

Entering at the wrong moment kills the edge.

The bot calculates the reservation price-the exact point where the risk-adjusted entry makes sense.

It doesn't chase. It doesn't panic.

It waits for the right tick, then fills

What this means in practice:

- Every few seconds the bot runs all six formulas in parallel.

- If LMSR confirms mispricing

- EV gap is above 5%

- Kelly says the bet size is justified

- Bayesian posterior agrees

- KL-divergence flags the correlated drift

- Stoikov clears the execution price

Only then does the bot enter.

Six filters. One trade.

This isn't a trading bot.

It's a hedge fund strategy running on a prediction market.

The edge is real.

The math is public.

The difference is most people never build it.

Just insert all these formulas into Claude and create your own bot

Add this post to bookmarks so you don’t lose it

Soon I will publish another bot with working formulas

[Discover @0x_Discover]

A bot turned $2,050 → $178,000 in one month arbitraging 5-minute Bitcoin markets on Polymarket.

No predictions.
No news.
No macro analysis.
Just automation.

The system:

• uses limit orders only
• exploits small pricing inefficiencies
• repeats the process hundreds of times per hour

Each trade looks tiny.

But stack thousands of them…
and the result becomes $178K in 30 days.

Copytrade →https://t.co/IPY41UFgnZ

The real edge isn’t the trade.

It’s scale.

Bots can execute hundreds of micro-edges every hour without hesitation.

Humans can’t compete with that.

[mmakselon @ryan3vu]

@riko_flux @br0tail @PredictParity @Kalshi @Polymarket @cryptocom @opinionlabsxyz @trylimitless @IBKR Do you have any...?

[mmakselon @ryan3vu]

@br0tail @riko_flux @PredictParity @Kalshi @Polymarket @cryptocom @opinionlabsxyz @trylimitless @IBKR The new trend now is to look for beta projects to farm points.

[mmakselon @ryan3vu]

@riko_flux @PredictParity @Kalshi @Polymarket @cryptocom @opinionlabsxyz @trylimitless @IBKR prediction markets clearly getting bigger every year

[mmakselon @ryan3vu]

@OddsMindX @Xmarketapp Any requirements to become a creator?

[Odds Mind @OddsMindX]

Got 2 codes for @Xmarketapp private beta

Small alpha most people haven’t noticed yet:

- Market creators earn a share of the trading fees
- If your market goes viral and people trade it → you keep getting paid

So instead of just betting on trends, you can actually own the market around them

Pretty different from @Polymarket / @Kalshi

DM if you want a code

[Tengen @0xTengen_]

polymarket trader made $5.3m just in one month by betting on sports

meet this guy, executing a systematic value extraction strategy at industrial scale

$178,850 profit per day, $1.34m profit per week

2,127 bets in ~30 days across 5 sports

most likely it's an HFT bot, no human has edge everywhere, this is a math model executing flawlessly

interesting nuance: on soccer, he aggressively buys "no" on favorites

buying "no" covers 2/3 outcomes (draw + loss)

he is systematically arbitraging the emotional premium on favorites

his profile to track: https://t.co/h0HntB2COg

p.s. drop a follow, i hunt these wallets regularly

another proof that sports predicting on polymarket is a new gold mine for algo traders

[mmakselon @ryan3vu]

Whether a user is broke or still has money, you can tell just by looking at this metric :))

If this metric stays stagnant while the market is green, you know the user is out of money. No more money to chase coins. Shake it all off and send it to the moon, hehe.

[Nitesh (prediction arc) @nitesheth01]

$50 to $280K in just three weeks not a single red trade

this wallet didn’t even exist in November. Today, it’s quietly printing $22K a day, fully automated, while most people are still debating narratives.

PurpleThunderBicycleMountain appeared on December 6 with a zero balance and a system ready to go. No warm up. No trial phase. Straight into execution.

three weeks later, the account is running a relentless strategy built around one thing only Bitcoin 15-minute windows on Polymarket. Up or Down. That’s it. No politics. No alts. No side quests.

i tracked over fifty consecutive trades looking for variation. there wasn’t any
same logic every time
spot BTC moves first on Binance polymarket windows lag for 30–90 seconds.

he buys the outcome that’s already decided, then exits the moment probabilities snap back to reality
what really stands out is the scale.

over $45M in volume pushed through a single market type in three weeks from a brand new wallet this isn’t experimentation this is deployment.

the equity curve looks unreal a near perfect line up green tile after green tile until the balance reads $280K

the edge still exists
the script is still running
the only question left is how long the lag survives before this window finally closes like every other edge eventually does

[mmakselon @ryan3vu]

The BTC vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 odds look interesting, might throw some cash in

[Lorden @lorden_eth]

For those who are bullish on BTC this year

There are 2 quite similar markets on the Polymarket where you can put your money

If Bitcoin ranks top 1 in terms of performance this year, you will be able to take profits from two markets at once

Markets:

Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
https://t.co/zvacDDs0LE

Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026
https://t.co/MP6BZFpwOM

[gemchanger @gemchange_ltd]

bro where did u even get that "85% lose money" stat from

1/ prediction markets are literally INFORMATION AGGREGATION tools not slot machines. google, eli lilly, HP, microsoft all use em internally for forecasting. u think fortune 500s r running casinos in their offices?

2/ iowa electronic markets beat polls 74% of the time over 5 presidential elections w avg error of 1.2% vs polls 1.62%

3/ the point isnt for everyone to profit - its a FORECASTING mechanism. yeah its zero-sum for traders but society gets accurate real-time probability estimates. brookings, yale, IARPA all confirmed markets outperform expert panels & traditional surveys

4/ comparing this to casinos is wild. casinos have built-in house edge (97% lose). prediction markets have NO house edge - prices just reflect collective probability. u can literally arb mispriced contracts if ur smart enough

5/ should retail degens treat it like gambling? idk. but calling the whole concept "just gambling" ignores decades of academic research proving these r the most efficient info aggregation mechanisms we have.

stay humble, gng

[mmakselon @ryan3vu]

@krzysztofbosak @katarynaaa