Ryan

getting on

[Ryan @ryan_m910]

@chucker @XLilliputian @McNolf @justalexoki The UK has had a shit 20 years, but Germany has arguably done worse despite EU membership. Deindustrialisation, energy policy, worse demographics, manufacturing loss to China. You are subordinate to France and UK on foreign policy. Not exactly a model of EU success.

[Ryan @ryan_m910]

@chucker @XLilliputian @McNolf @justalexoki You are in the EU and your economic performance is worse than ours and narrative about being an empire is basically unfounded, no one cares for it. Under German leadership the EU has declined.

If Germany/France had just agreed to welfare reforms the UK would have never have left

[Ryan @ryan_m910]

@FranklinVH2 @boysbasbleu Of course it does. It creates a shortage in central London for social housing which local government fixes by paying private providers at a higher rate than it charges to those in its own estate

[Ryan @ryan_m910]

@1doddy83 @woodchippings1 @iAmJoshHunt You're thinking of freedom
of movement which allowed you anywhere in the EU. Schengen was the removal of internal border controls which the UK and Ireland kept because with Ireland we have a common travel area which allows us to work or vote in either country.

[Ryan @ryan_m910]

@1doddy83 @woodchippings1 @iAmJoshHunt Ireland is in the EU but not in Schengen and neither were we.

[Ryan @ryan_m910]

@Arjunssidhu @tpp6me @akhivae Bloats you up and will give you explosive shits 😂 milk and ice cream are the worse for it too.

[Ryan @ryan_m910]

@MarysRoommate @ByrneHobart If whatever you've spent that initial deferral on doesn't increase your tax take /productivity and you've not fixed the underlying deficit issue, you have the same problem next year with the pension deferral on top, so you refer again, and then again the year after and so on

[Ryan @ryan_m910]

@libdembounce @Heeehooooo The problem with the EU line is that it hasn't performed particularly well since we've left. If we move the country closer and there is no discernible change in growth but we get higher immigration as a result, the pullback will be much harsher than post brexit.

[Ryan @ryan_m910]

@astou_jolie @bizzycato It still exists! Just in digital format now, not in print.

[Ryan @ryan_m910]

@LivityCowboys @mindofprospect @TedAthienitis It's self employed tradesmen. The 12,570 is to keep HMRC off your back and you just bank the rest

[Ryan @ryan_m910]

@Wildeye420 @CazParker1871 @PeterMcCormack @ZackPolanski Where's the supply boom coming from? Why would investors put their money into building houses over something else that will get them a better return?

[Ryan @ryan_m910]

@Marblechops79 @patrickamon @Dannyceres @cidersuspect @DavidGauke London in particular has been due a correction but that still won't make them affordable. Av house price in Kensington and Chelsea is over £1.2m so that's not a great example. Prices could fall 30% nominally still be out of reach for the average buyer,

[Ryan @ryan_m910]

@Marblechops79 @patrickamon @Dannyceres @cidersuspect @DavidGauke We might get a real terms decrease of 15% over several years because of high inflation but we already did this in 2022 with Liz Truss and inflation outpaced wages too so affordability got even worse despite the real terms decrease in price

[Ryan @ryan_m910]

@Marblechops79 @patrickamon @Dannyceres @cidersuspect @DavidGauke The cost of carry has an impact but it's not high enough to cause a nominal 15% decrease in the average house price. Supply is still too constrained. Rates would need to be around double and probably a sustained recession. House prices are still growing outside of south east.

[Ryan @ryan_m910]

@patrickamon @Dannyceres @cidersuspect @DavidGauke I get what your saying but unless demand falls for rentals (not just upward pressure being relieved by some renters exiting) rents won't come down.

[Ryan @ryan_m910]

@patrickamon @Dannyceres @cidersuspect @DavidGauke Yes but it's going to be marginal. You can get a deposit for 5% now. A 20% decrease on properties values moves the deposit requirement by 1-2% which is negligible at that point. If you couldnt afford a £17.5k deposit, it's unlikely you can at £15k either.

[Ryan @ryan_m910]

@patrickamon @Dannyceres @cidersuspect @DavidGauke the policy does neither but increasingly looks like it's going to effect scarcity. The end result will be average rental prices go up as demand can't be met. Subdivision of existing properties to increase to try to offset that, which leads to overcrowding and lower stock quality

[Ryan @ryan_m910]

@patrickamon @Dannyceres @cidersuspect @DavidGauke the policy won't change the levels of population increase, but the policy will exacerbate the most common issues of renting (overcrowding, habitibality, scarcity, price) unless you do something to stop the population increase or increase the supply of rentals.

[Ryan @ryan_m910]

@patrickamon @Dannyceres @cidersuspect @DavidGauke But only 200k of housing, that's over an average occupancy of 3:1 on just additional people. Never mind the damage it would to do the economy to drive loads of people into negative equity whilst doing little on affordability for renters

[Ryan @ryan_m910]

@patrickamon @Dannyceres @cidersuspect @DavidGauke Up to a quarter of First Time Buyers aren't coming from an existing rental property. That's potential for about 60k properties to come out of the rental market (obvs some will already be owner occupied so not all) a year. Population increase not irrelevant, can't add 700k people