it is a good question, one i would've better addressed if Solomonoff was born a week later
way out in theory-land, the agentic counterpart of Solomonoff's optimal predictor is Hutter's AIXI (Hutter, 2005). the AIXI agent chooses the actions that lead to the highest cumulative future reward, *as predicted by Solomonoff induction on the observation / reward stream*: the ideal agent is an expectimax-wrapper of the ideal predictor, which is, of course, the ideal compressor
coming back down to reality, one of the main theories regarding LLMs is that RL "just" improves the model's pass@k for problems whose solutions already existed latently within the pretrained weights (Yue et al., 2025): it is bounded by what the model has already compressed
i do not mean to cast any shade towards Anthropic (all of the labs are going to be doing this), just highlighting a flaw that has been prevalent throughout the ARC-AGI variations
an impressive jump that i have to assume is the result of being the first frontier model to have RL'd the public demo environments, which is a rather large confounder on what Chollet is trying to get these benchmarks to measure (out-of-distribution generalization)
Now of course Schmidhuber is divisive and does spend a lot of time trying to appropriately assign credit in the history of AI and through this has become something of a punchline. But you have to admit that he has demonstrated incredible vision and foresight.