Ryan Koonce

CEO @AttributionApp. Your CAC is wrong and I can prove it. Building the multi-touch attribution platform for SaaS, ecommerce & enterprise. Built @MammothGrowth.

[Ryan Koonce @ryankoonce]

I've spent 10 years building attribution software.
Here's the uncomfortable truth most marketing teams don't want to hear:

Your ROAS numbers are wrong. Your CAC is wrong. And you're making million-dollar budget decisions based on data that's lying to you.

Here's why (and how to fix it) 🧵

[Ryan Koonce @ryankoonce]

@codyplof Couldn’t it just be that Meta is in harvest mode, pushing their marginal return? Ultimately, Meta decides how much money they make.

[Ryan Koonce @ryankoonce]

@jasonlk @buccocapital Since 1998

[Ryan Koonce @ryankoonce]

@cmikulin You need a good data layer but Claude can do it all.

[Ryan Koonce @ryankoonce]

@SamMendelsohnW6 Yeah. Like SFMC. Which still does more revenue than all its competitors combined…

[Ryan Koonce @ryankoonce]

@tunguz Just don’t take away Opus. I’ll retire otherwise.

[Ryan Koonce @ryankoonce]

@pmarca Just added to our employee handbook

[Ryan Koonce @ryankoonce]

@Jason I’m in

[Ryan Koonce @ryankoonce]

@Lucasbfranco yup.

[Ryan Koonce @ryankoonce]

The shift from "unique visitors" to "sessions" broke measurement for most companies. We see this daily - clients think they have 100K users but it's really 30K people across multiple devices/sessions.

Real attribution requires persistent user profiles that track the person, not just the pageview. Most platforms still can't do this properly.

[Ryan Koonce @ryankoonce]

@BryanBumgardner The LLMs consistently outperform black-box MMMs with great underlying data. Worth comparing.

[Ryan Koonce @ryankoonce]

OpenAI following the same playbook as Meta/Google - platform-reported conversions that don't reconcile to actual revenue. We're already seeing 20-30% inflation in platform data vs bank deposits.

The real question: will they let you audit the attribution logic, or is it another black box you have to trust?

[Ryan Koonce @ryankoonce]

@demu0213 Meta's attribution has always been inflated - we see 20-30% higher conversions reported vs. what actually hits bank accounts. The issue with 3rd party tools is most are just repackaging platform data, which can't see the full picture. Probably always been wrong, jus tnot obvious

[Ryan Koonce @ryankoonce]

Agentic Attribution: Waitlist Now Open. https://t.co/oRUaSOSduC

[Ryan Koonce @ryankoonce]

@davegerhardt Good luck if you have ordinary income…

[Ryan Koonce @ryankoonce]

@Seanfrank Yet people keep voting for the same people that got it this way. Sigh. Blame your neighbors.

[Ryan Koonce @ryankoonce]

So many people are vibe coding attribution products that don't work and they don't even know it.

[Ryan Koonce @ryankoonce]

@ecomneph Common problem. Most tools can't reconcile to your actual bank account. We track order cancellations, refunds, everything that affects real ROAS. Free account for switching from TW.

[Ryan Koonce @ryankoonce]

This is exactly why we built Attribution - to connect those high-intent ChatGPT clicks to actual revenue outcomes. Most platforms give you vanity metrics, but you need to know which $60 CPM clicks actually convert. Want to see what proper conversion tracking looks like for ChatGPT ads?

[Ryan Koonce @ryankoonce]

The biggest issue we see with Triple Whale is that their attribution data doesn't match actual Shopify revenue. Store owners can't audit the numbers or trace them back to real transactions. Happy Box saw 61% sales growth after switching to auditable attribution data. We're about to release our MCP. LMK if you want in on the beta and you'll have accurate data to build against.

[Ryan Koonce @ryankoonce]

@tunguz Haha. California Coastal Commission. Then the rest of the waterfall of development penalties.