Ryan Munce

President of @coefficientpoll. Pollster, debater, data geek and strategist. I live in the city, but I identify as rural.

[Ryan Munce @ryanmunce]

So proud of our supply lines.

[NOBUNAGA🇯🇵🏯_夏樹蒼依 @japan_nobunaga]

USA. A Mexican restaurant. We had not yet ordered anything, and the food was already arriving.

Chips. Salsa. Unrequested. Free.

I stopped the waiter. "We have not earned these."

"They just come with the table, man."

They come with the TABLE. In my land, hospitality is a debt. Every gift creates an obligation, weighed carefully, returned in the proper season with interest of feeling. Here, the gift arrives before you have even proven you can pay for dinner.

This is not an appetizer. This is a declaration: we trust you. Eat.

I ate with the gravity the moment deserved. And then — I must report this calmly — the basket emptied, and a new one appeared.

"Did we…?"

"Refill," the waiter said. "It's bottomless."

Bottomless. They have wells of salsa. The supply lines of this nation are beyond anything my ancestors imagined.

My friend warned me. "Don't fill up on chips, dude."

Too late. I had accepted three baskets. Honor demanded each one be finished — an unfinished gift is an insult. By the time my actual food arrived, I was a ruined man.

I was not hungry. I was not comfortable. I had been defeated by a courtesy.

Generosity that arrives before the request cannot be repaid. It can only be survived.

I know the rule now. I have made my peace with the basket. One basket. Two at the most.

Who am I deceiving. There is no number of baskets I would refuse. The trust of a nation is in that salsa, and I intend to honor all of it.

[Ryan Munce @ryanmunce]

SOOO much of this going on these days.

[G.S. Quay @hemingquay]

Turns out you can make anyone seem innocent if you leave out the middle part of the story where they committed the crime.

“A math professor moved to a cabin in Montana. Now he’s serving life in prison.”

[co/efficient @coefficientpoll]

New Poll: Indiana Republicans' Support For Redistricting

• 78% say it is very important that elected representatives support President Trump’s agenda
• 72% support redrawing congressional districts in Indiana
• 67% say they would be less likely to re-elect their State Senator if they sided with Democrats

Dec 11–12, 2025 | 1,010 GOP Primary Voters | MoE ±3.11% | Mobile Text + Live Interviews | for Fair Maps Indiana

View full memo: https://t.co/RiadwUXZqe

[co/efficient @coefficientpoll]

NEW: 2026 Texas GOP Senate Primary Poll

Ken Paxton and John Cornyn remain locked in a close battle, each enjoying slight leads in various media markets, while Wesley Hunt trails in third in all markets across the state.

Ballot:
Cornyn: 28%
Paxton: 27%
Hunt: 19%
Undecided: 26%

Fielded Dec 1–3, 2025 | n=1,022 Likely Republican Primary Voters | MoE ±3.07% | Not sponsored by any candidate or committee.

Full results: https://t.co/PGhnC2ie7p

[co/efficient @coefficientpoll]

New Statewide NJ Poll:

Governor:
Sherrill (D): 48%
Ciattarelli (R): 47%
Kaplan (L): 1%
Kuniansky (SWP): 0%
Undecided: 5%

Generic Assembly:
Democrat: 49%
Republican: 45%
Undecided: 6%

Oct 23–27, 2025 | 995 LVs | MoE ±3.27% | Not sponsored by any candidate or candidate’s committee.

View full results: https://t.co/NNwXCLrUuo

[co/efficient @coefficientpoll]

New Statewide VA Poll:

While the Governor's race is still competitive with Spanberger out in front, Jay Jones' texting scandal has defined the race for Attorney General with Miyares leading by 4 (46%-42%) headed into the final weeks of the campaign.

Governor:
Spanberger (D): 49%
Earle-Sears (R): 44%
Charles (I): 1%
Undecided: 6%

Lieutenant Governor
Hashmi (D): 47%
Reid (R): 42%
Undecided: 11%

Attorney General:
Miyares (R): 46%
Jones (D): 42%
Undecided: 11%

Oct 15–17, 2025 | 937 LVs | MoE ±3.19% | Not sponsored by any candidate or candidate’s committee.

View full results: https://t.co/B5aFrOmKR8

[co/efficient @coefficientpoll]

NEW POLL: Our latest Virginia statewide survey finds voters sharply divided on political violence, who's to blame, and the use of the National Guard.

✔️ 1 in 3 Republicans say recent events increased motivation to vote
✔️ Voters who typically skip off-year elections are reporting an increased motivation to vote.

Learn how this could impact November in our full memo: https://t.co/X2g0qqerPS

#VAgov #VAleg #VAelection
Not paid for by any candidate or candidate’s committee.

[Ryan Munce @ryanmunce]

How can anyone hear this and not consider it an explicit call for political violence?

This = shouting fire in a crowded theater.

[Gavin Newsom @GavinNewsom]

I fear that we will not have an election in 2028 -- I really mean that in the core of my soul -- unless we wake up to what's happening in this country.

[Ryan Munce @ryanmunce]

It looks like we finally discovered how Nancy Pelosi was sending out all of her fundraising text messages for the last 20 years. Glad that is coming to an end.

[U.S. Secret Service @SecretService]

The Secret Service dismantled a network of more than 300 SIM servers and 100,000 SIM cards in the New York-area that were capable of crippling telecom systems and carrying out anonymous telephonic attacks, disrupting the threat before world leaders arrived for the UN General Assembly.

📰 Read more about this at https://t.co/m5Q1xQPXqa

[co/efficient @coefficientpoll]

New 2026 South Carolina Governor GOP Primary Poll:

Nancy Mace: 19%
Pamela Evette: 18%
Alan Wilson: 16%
Ralph Norman: 10%
Josh Kimbrell: 2%
Undecided: 35%

Sept 18–19, 2025 | 1,094 Likely Republican Primary Voters | MoE ±3.17% | Not sponsored by any candidate or candidate’s committee.

Full results: https://t.co/oRQFO54xhs

[ThePersistence @ScottPresler]

St. Michael the Archangel,

defend us in battle.

Be our protection against the

wickedness & snares of the Devil.

May God rebuke him, we humbly pray,

& do thou,

O Prince of the heavenly hosts,

by the power of God,

thrust into hell Satan,

& all the evil spirits,

who prowl about the world

seeking the ruin of souls.

Amen

[co/efficient @coefficientpoll]

New co/efficient Statewide VA Poll:

Governor:
Spanberger (D): 48%
Earle-Sears (R): 43%

Lt. Governor:
Reid (R): 43%
Hashmi (D): 43%

Attorney General:
Jones (D): 45%
Miyares (R): 44%

Aug 23-26, 2025 | 1,025 LVs | MoE ±3.1% | Not sponsored by any candidate or candidates committee.

Full results: https://t.co/cgzDKAWl0p

[James Kimmey @RealJimmyKimmey]

The media says Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” adds $3T to the deficit.

That’s a lie based on a fake baseline. Here’s the truth: 🧵

[co/efficient @coefficientpoll]

New co/efficient Statewide Virginia Poll sponsored by @FoundersPolls

Governor
Spanberger (D): 46%
Earle-Sears (R): 43%
Charles (I): 2%
Undecided: 9%

Lt. Governor
Reid (R): 41%
Dem Candidate: 39%
Jones (I): 2%
Undecided: 18%

Attorney General
Miyares (R): 44%
Dem Candidate: 44%
Undecided: 12%

Fielded June 8–10, 2025 | 1,127 LVs | MoE ±3.1%

Full results: https://t.co/MitlvsGCAv

[co/efficient @coefficientpoll]

WATCH: @BenShapiro discusses our recent poll that asks voters to name the “face of the Democrat party“

The topline result has received the most attention, but the data among self-identified Democrats is even more revealing.

Vice President Harris performs better among Democrats than the general electorate, but she still trails AOC, Bernie Sanders, and Jasmine Crockett.

This may be the worst news for Gavin Newsom, who barely registers across any group or demographic.

The full crosstab and methodology are available here: https://t.co/0erSxQksL7

[co/efficient @coefficientpoll]

New Data Release: National Foreign Policy Study

New findings on:
- Support for deportation
- US involvement in Ukraine
- US policy in the Middle East, and more.

Full memo here: https://t.co/qra5wHAzdv

#ForeignPolicy #Russia #Ukraine

[Ryan Munce @ryanmunce]

Because we know that Trump's policies have been overwhelmingly popular, I thought this poll was worth digging into. We downloaded the actual 250 policy statements tested by @YouGovAmerica and asked ChatGPT for a non-biased review of the statements.

Here is what we found:

According to ChatGPT 4.5:

✅ Accuracy: Actual Trump Administration Policies: Based on available information, approximately 35–40% of the listed policies align with official actions, executive orders, or proposals from the Trump administration as of May 2025.

❌ Inaccuracies and Misattributions:
Approximately 60–65% of the policies listed do not correspond to any verified actions or proposals from the Trump administration.

⚠️ Bias and Framing Concerns:
Many policy descriptions in the list are framed in a manner that could be perceived as biased or designed to cast the administration in a negative light. Examples include:

Inflammatory Language: Phrases like "Arresting and deporting millions of illegal immigrants" or "Using Guantanamo Bay to detain thousands of migrants" use charged language without context or nuance.

Speculative Assertions: Statements such as "The U.S. siding with Russia over Ukraine in the war between the two countries" are speculative and not grounded in official policy declarations.

Exaggerated Claims: Descriptions like "Firing hundreds of thousands of U.S. federal workers" lack substantiation and may exaggerate the scope of administrative actions.

There you go.

[co/efficient @coefficientpoll]

New Data Release: National Approval Study

- Trump approval: 49%
- No clear face of the Democratic Party (AOC leads at 26%)

Full memo here: https://t.co/xh40GKFVzL

[Ryan Munce @ryanmunce]

@Chiefs Thanks for the great memory! @Chiefs

[Ryan Munce @ryanmunce]

@VaChangeAgent Accuracy matters! We wish you all well.