Ryan Munce

President of @coefficientpoll. Pollster, debater, data geek and strategist. I live in the city, but I identify as rural.

[Ryan Munce @ryanmunce]

@UglySockGoblin @TMSTRS_ @michaeljknowles What argument do you think I am making, exactly?

[Ryan Munce @ryanmunce]

@TMSTRS_ @michaeljknowles Free lunch doesn’t exist.

[Ryan Munce @ryanmunce]

@ltthompso To be fair, we missed it in our 10-20-2020 numbers as well. By about ⅓ of a point.

Marshall is a strong closer.

[Ryan Munce @ryanmunce]

This is question of the year.

[Brent Buchanan, Pollster @brentbuc]

Harder to reach or not interested in voting? Much of this cycle will come down to which one is the cause.

[Ryan Munce @ryanmunce]

This is demonstrably, and obviously true. But, the gap has increased this year exposing a deeper bias problem.

Simply weighting by party doesn't fix the response bias problem.

The bias is not created by the volume of Republicans that are willing to respond, but which type of Republicans are choosing not to respond.

[Pew Research Center @pewresearch]

There is growing evidence that Republicans have become somewhat less likely than Democrats to participate in polls, particularly in the past three presidential elections.

In 2020 and 2024, weighting our post election polls by party improved accuracy by about 1-2 percentage points per candidate.

[Pew Research Center @pewresearch]

There is growing evidence that Republicans have become somewhat less likely than Democrats to participate in polls, particularly in the past three presidential elections.

In 2020 and 2024, weighting our post election polls by party improved accuracy by about 1-2 percentage points per candidate.

[co/efficient @coefficientpoll]

In our latest independent poll, Republican Ashley Hinson leads Democrat Josh Turek:

🔴 Ashley Hinson, Republican - 46%
🔵 Josh Turek, Democrat - 42%
🟡 Thomas Laehn, Libertarian - 2%
⚪ Undecided - 9%

See the Iowa results and follow the full Senate Battlegrounds 2026 series here:
https://t.co/7wnInApDiA

Follow along as we continue releasing independent polling from 2026’s most contested Senate races.
#2026Election #USSenate #IASenate

Independent public polling. Not sponsored by any candidate committee, party committee, or other independent expenditure.

[Ryan Munce @ryanmunce]

@seanmdav It's the pillow for me. Is that a floral print camo??

[Ryan Munce @ryanmunce]

What impact would this have on grocery prices???

[America @america]

The number of people on SNAP has decreased by 5.3 million after new work requirements were implemented.

[Ryan Munce @ryanmunce]

This might be the most important chart of the year.

[Stephen Moore @StephenMoore]

Americans now pay more in taxes than they spend on food, clothing, and shelter combined.

Think about that.

Government has become so big and bloated that taxes cost more than life's basic necessities. Every American taxpayer should be outraged.

[Ryan Munce @ryanmunce]

@Rasmussen_Poll @AaronBlake Quality is determined by whether or not you like the result. Apparently.

[Ryan Munce @ryanmunce]

It’s a reference to the lefty/hipster, “I liked it before it was cool“ dynamic that many, particularly insecure, people cherish. Same with bands, restaurants, or other cultural trends. If you identify as an Atari person, then it lets you feel better/cooler than all of the other video game kids that came after you.

[Ryan Munce @ryanmunce]

Go Chiefs.

#KCChiefs #Chiefs

https://t.co/leDMSHb0Sn

[Ryan Munce @ryanmunce]

@jpgechele Jose, thank you for the post, and I’m glad you visited our city! The game was incredible but unfortunately, dunking on people when they stumble over the unavoidably confusing geography of our city name is one of the few “wins” that stupid people can experience.

[Ryan Munce @ryanmunce]

So proud of our supply lines.

[NOBUNAGA🇯🇵🏯 @japan_nobunaga]

USA. A Mexican restaurant. We had not yet ordered anything, and the food was already arriving.

Chips. Salsa. Unrequested. Free.

I stopped the waiter. "We have not earned these."

"They just come with the table, man."

They come with the TABLE. In my land, hospitality is a debt. Every gift creates an obligation, weighed carefully, returned in the proper season with interest of feeling. Here, the gift arrives before you have even proven you can pay for dinner.

This is not an appetizer. This is a declaration: we trust you. Eat.

I ate with the gravity the moment deserved. And then — I must report this calmly — the basket emptied, and a new one appeared.

"Did we…?"

"Refill," the waiter said. "It's bottomless."

Bottomless. They have wells of salsa. The supply lines of this nation are beyond anything my ancestors imagined.

My friend warned me. "Don't fill up on chips, dude."

Too late. I had accepted three baskets. Honor demanded each one be finished — an unfinished gift is an insult. By the time my actual food arrived, I was a ruined man.

I was not hungry. I was not comfortable. I had been defeated by a courtesy.

Generosity that arrives before the request cannot be repaid. It can only be survived.

I know the rule now. I have made my peace with the basket. One basket. Two at the most.

Who am I deceiving. There is no number of baskets I would refuse. The trust of a nation is in that salsa, and I intend to honor all of it.

[Ryan Munce @ryanmunce]

SOOO much of this going on these days.

[G.S. Quay @hemingquay]

Turns out you can make anyone seem innocent if you leave out the middle part of the story where they committed the crime.

“A math professor moved to a cabin in Montana. Now he’s serving life in prison.”

[co/efficient @coefficientpoll]

New Poll: Indiana Republicans' Support For Redistricting

• 78% say it is very important that elected representatives support President Trump’s agenda
• 72% support redrawing congressional districts in Indiana
• 67% say they would be less likely to re-elect their State Senator if they sided with Democrats

Dec 11–12, 2025 | 1,010 GOP Primary Voters | MoE ±3.11% | Mobile Text + Live Interviews | for Fair Maps Indiana

View full memo: https://t.co/RiadwUXZqe

[co/efficient @coefficientpoll]

NEW: 2026 Texas GOP Senate Primary Poll

Ken Paxton and John Cornyn remain locked in a close battle, each enjoying slight leads in various media markets, while Wesley Hunt trails in third in all markets across the state.

Ballot:
Cornyn: 28%
Paxton: 27%
Hunt: 19%
Undecided: 26%

Fielded Dec 1–3, 2025 | n=1,022 Likely Republican Primary Voters | MoE ±3.07% | Not sponsored by any candidate or committee.

Full results: https://t.co/PGhnC2ie7p

[co/efficient @coefficientpoll]

New Statewide NJ Poll:

Governor:
Sherrill (D): 48%
Ciattarelli (R): 47%
Kaplan (L): 1%
Kuniansky (SWP): 0%
Undecided: 5%

Generic Assembly:
Democrat: 49%
Republican: 45%
Undecided: 6%

Oct 23–27, 2025 | 995 LVs | MoE ±3.27% | Not sponsored by any candidate or candidate’s committee.

View full results: https://t.co/NNwXCLrUuo

[co/efficient @coefficientpoll]

New Statewide VA Poll:

While the Governor's race is still competitive with Spanberger out in front, Jay Jones' texting scandal has defined the race for Attorney General with Miyares leading by 4 (46%-42%) headed into the final weeks of the campaign.

Governor:
Spanberger (D): 49%
Earle-Sears (R): 44%
Charles (I): 1%
Undecided: 6%

Lieutenant Governor
Hashmi (D): 47%
Reid (R): 42%
Undecided: 11%

Attorney General:
Miyares (R): 46%
Jones (D): 42%
Undecided: 11%

Oct 15–17, 2025 | 937 LVs | MoE ±3.19% | Not sponsored by any candidate or candidate’s committee.

View full results: https://t.co/B5aFrOmKR8