Tomorrow is Monday, by far the worst day of the year in 2025.
It is also #SaintPatricksDay which is known for some green, as it is the best day in March.
S&P 500 hasn't been up two days in a row in 17 days, longest since August '23.
What gives tomorrow?
Here are all 12 times the S&P 500 moved 10% off all-time highs and what happened after the day it moved into a correction (but didn't go into a bear market).
What is interesting is 5 of 12 bottomed the day it went into a correction. Higher a yr later 12 for 12 as well. 💪
I joined @BNNBloomberg and @AndrewBellBNN for more than 10 minutes yesterday to discuss the recent volatility, but also how we are positioning the portfolios we manage.
https://t.co/TTLTc3npOm
Can stocks fall 10% this year? Maybe, but history would say something bad needs to happen.
Only 12 out of the past 97 years did stocks lose 10% or more for the year (total return) and all had some major reasons for the trouble.
Looking at the past 20 years, March 12 is the last day of the year that has a negative average YTD return for the S&P 500.
From here things tend to improve significantly.
Since WWII there have been 48 total 10% corrections on the S&P 500.
How many turned into bear markets? Only 12 of them, so about 25% of the time.
Then don't forget we already had two bear markets to start this decade and those were the two closest bear markets in history.